1.5pts Scotland to win (Draw No Bet) at 29/20 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Scott McTominay to score anytime at 18/5 (Betway)
0.5pt McTominay to score first at 10/1 (bet365, Betfair)
Scotland ended the last international period with a battling goalless draw at home to Portugal, breaking a run of four straight defeats and boosting their hopes of avoiding an immediate relegation back to the second tier of the Nations League.
Those hopes were further enhanced by news of direct rivals Poland losing Robert Lewandowski for their final two games, and Scotland captain John McGinn being among seven players to return to fitness for Steve Clarke's side.
It means for the first time in a while, the Tartan Army head into a fixture with plenty of reasons for optimism.
Avoid defeat against Croatia and - unless Poland win in Lisbon - Scotland will take their survival bid to Monday's final fixture in Warsaw.
For a fleeting moment I'm getting won over by the Nations League format, but just as my enthusiasm builds the fact this match is only being shown on Viaplay International YouTube quickly brings me back to reality.
While hard to imagine him ever being overjoyed, a clean sheet against Portugal will surely have even caused Clarke to crack a smile.
It was no fluke either.
Scotland allowed chances equating to 4.96 expected goals (xG) across their opening two Nations League fixtures, and although they conceded twice from 1.25 xG in defeat by Croatia in their third game, there were finally signs of defensive improvement.
Prior to keeping out Portugal, Clarke's side had kept only one clean sheet in their previous 15 attempts; a friendly against Gibraltar. That wretched run followed a record of five clean sheets in seven fixtures, solidity that formed the backbone of Scotland's recent success.
Portugal were not only kept out at Hampden, but limited to just one 'big chance' (xG > 0.30) and three shots on target.
🗣️ 'I love it when we disappoint one of the world's best footballers who comes off in a huff because he’s frustrated' 😤
— BBC Sport Scotland (@BBCSportScot) November 12, 2024
John Carver on Scotland's spirits being lifted since earning a draw against Cristiano Ronaldo's Portugal, and it being 'time for a win'.#BBCFootball pic.twitter.com/N5NC5I0jkb
Having taken the lead away from home against both Croatia and Portugal, and fighting back from 2-0 down only to lose to a 97th-minute penalty in their home game with Poland, SCOTLAND have been close throughout this campaign.
It's the right moment to back them TO WIN.
Call me cagey, but at the prices I'll also take the added insurance of DRAW NO BET given the importance of avoiding defeat, the pragmatic way in which Clarke usually approaches things, as well as the inescapable fact that Scotland's only win in their last 16 games was over Gibraltar.
For a match we expect to be low scoring, but with little value in associated markets, we're instead taking a 10/1 FIRST GOALSCORER in SCOTT MCTOMINAY.
The former Manchester United midfielder has adapted to life in Italy phenomenally well, adored by the Napoli supporters to such an extent they have quickly given him the nickname 'McTotally' to reflect his level of commitment on the pitch, commitment that has already delivered three goals in 10 appearances and helped his new club to the top of the Serie A table.
Right place, right time 🎯
— Football on TNT Sports (@footballontnt) November 10, 2024
Scott McTominay fires Napoli ahead against the reigning Serie A champions ⭐
📺 @tntsports & @discoveryplusUK pic.twitter.com/SEPoHcajiU
Since becoming Scotland's prime goal threat, McTominay has scored 10 times in 19 international games, accounting for 40% of their goals in that time. In this Nations League campaign he has already broken the deadlock away at Portugal and scored an equaliser at home to Poland.
Given his outstanding record, splitting our stake and backing him TO SCORE ANYTIME at a generous 18/5 is also advised.
Scotland welcome back McGinn, Stuart Armstrong, Scott McKenna, Jack Hendry, Greg Taylor, Lawrence Shankland and Tommy Conway after they missed the last international period, but are without Italian-based pair Che Adams and Lewis Ferguson.
Croatia are without suspended goalkeeper Dominik Livakovic and injured duo Lovro Majer and Bruno Petkovic.
Scotland: Gordon; Ralston, Souttar, Hendry, Robertson; McLean, Gilmour; McGinn, McTominay, Doak; Dykes.
Croatia: Labrovic; Sutalo, Caleta-Car, Gvardiol; Perisic, Modric, Kovacic, Sosa; Baturina, Kramaric; Matanovic.
Odds correct at 1200 GMT (14/11/24)
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