With 22/1, 7/2, 19/10 and 11/10 winners in midweek, Tom Carnduff is in fine form and has four best bets for Saturday's Premier League games.
Recommended bets
1pt Everton to beat Manchester United at 19/10
2pts Leeds to have the most corners in Crystal Palace v Leeds at 11/10
1pt Rhian Brewster to be carded in Chelsea v Sheffield United at 11/2
1pt e.w. Ademola Lookman to be first goalscorer in West Ham v Fulham at 12/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
West Ham v Fulham
- 20:00 GMT on BT Sport Box Office
- Match odds: Home 4/5 | Draw 11/4 | Away 16/5
This is another game that few will rush to pay £14.95 for, although that is the case for any pay-per-view game, but Fulham's performances in recent weeks gives them hope that they could well get something at West Ham.
Scott Parker's men picked up their first Premier League win of the season by beating West Brom last time out. The 2-0 scoreline accurately reflected the course of the game and, despite their slow start, Fulham are showing encouraging signs.
The Hammers may have only lost by a single goal against Liverpool but their xG figure was a tiny 0.34. Despite getting on the scoresheet, they offered little attacking threat and Michail Antonio is going to be a serious miss during his few weeks on the sideline.
On the flip side, Fulham have scored in their last three contests while their last four have seen them post an xG figure of above 1.0. Given West Ham's recent defensive record, it's worth backing Fulham to score at 4/9 with Sky Bet.
The better value though, comes when delving into the goalscorer markets and the price that jumps out immediately is the 12/1 available on Ademola Lookman as first goalscorer, with the each-way value dropping to 4/1 anytime.
Lookman's only goal of the campaign was the first in the 1-1 draw against Sheffield United at Bramall Lane but his shots record in his three starts for Fulham shows that he should have had more. There were three shots against the Blades and West Brom, while he hit a huge six shots in the home defeat to Crystal Palace.
It's a price that is just too generous based on his showings so far. He's comfortable on left wing while also playing centrally where required. You can't imagine Parker will make many, if any, changes from that win against West Brom and that should see Lookman involved from the off.
The result may not reflect it, although four points from three games is decent enough, but Fulham have enjoyed more attempts on goal than their opponents. That trend can continue here, even after West Ham's tough run of fixtures. It wouldn't be a surprise to see the double chance in Fulham's favour land at even money, although the better value comes in backing Lookman to strike first each-way.
Score prediction: West Ham 1-1 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Best bet: Ademola Lookman to score first at 12/1 e.w.
Opta facts
- West Ham have kept just two clean sheets in their 13 Premier League home games since David Moyes returned to the club (W5 D4 L4), with both of those shutouts coming in 4-0 victories (v Bournemouth in January and Wolves in September).
- West Ham have lost eight of their last 12 Premier League London derby matches (W3 D1), though they did win their last such match at home (3-2 vs Chelsea in July).
- Since scoring with two consecutive efforts in January 2019 against Brighton, Fulham striker Aleksandar Mitrovic has scored with just three of his last 74 shots in the Premier League. He hasn’t scored with any of his last 44 non-penalty shots with his right or left foot, since a goal against Huddersfield Town in December 2018.
- West Ham’s Manuel Lanzini has scored 10 goals in 26 Premier League London derbies, including the equaliser in the Hammers’ 3-3 draw with Spurs last month. Only Carlton Cole (14) and Paolo Di Canio (11) have scored more goals in Premier League London derbies for West Ham.
Everton v Manchester United
- 12:30 GMT on BT Sport 1
- Match odds: Home 19/10 | Draw 5/2 | Away 11/8
The Ole Gunnar Solskjaer 'at the wheel' status is more complicated than Alan Partridge's Soccer-meter for the 1994 World Cup but it's fair to say it's firmly on 'not at the wheel' currently. Defeat to Arsenal was followed by a loss to Istanbul Basaksehir and the Mauricio Pochettino talk grows louder.
Even with victories over PSG and RB Leipzig, nobody seems happy at Old Trafford. The team continues to underperform and are clearly suffering from a lack of direction. They are 15th in the Premier League; Infogol's model, based on performance, has them 19th.
The defending for the two goals in Turkey was nothing short of atrocious. The first replicated an under-8s game where everyone is interested in going for the ball and that left Demba Ba free to breakaway through the entire half and score - we see those goals in the 95th minute, not the 13th.
It must be acknowledged that Everton have issues of their own with injuries to key first team players making a significant impact. This may well be a bet worth holding out on until the team news but Carlo Ancelotti seems confident that James Rodriguez will be available while Lucas Digne returns from suspension.
Richarlison is a miss and we await to see if Andre Gomes will be fit but Ancelotti's comments of "a little problem on his knee but it was nothing special, just a knock," for the latter gives hope that he will be involved. Regardless of the team, they can punish a lacklustre United side.
The visitors have only gone above 1.0 xG in one of their last four outings in all competitions, the 5-0 win over Leipzig, with a tiny 0.39 posted in response to Arsenal's 1.07. We can focus on the defence, but the fact remains they are offering little in attack either.
Edinson Cavani is going to become Solskjaer's man to throw on when he's chasing the game but that in itself explains the situation with this United team. From top to bottom, everyone has played a part for their current problems and you can't see it improving unless a serious change is made.
Everton's injury issues may be key here but it's worth taking them as the outsiders in this contest given the form of the visitors. 19/10 is just too generous for a team who have, on the whole, had a strong start to the campaign.
Score prediction: Everton 2-0 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Best bet: Everton to win at 19/10
Opta facts
- Everton are unbeaten in their last three league games against Man Utd (W1 D2), with both games last season ending 1-1. They last went four without defeat against the Red Devils in March 1990 (W2 D2).
- After a run of scoring in 17 consecutive games, netting 39 goals in the process, Manchester United have failed to score in their last two Premier League matches (0-0 vs Chelsea, 0-1 vs Arsenal). They last failed to score in three consecutive league games in February.
- Everton’s Dominic Calvert-Lewin has scored eight goals in his seven Premier League games this season, only failing to score in one game so far. The striker has scored in just one of his seven Premier League appearances vs Man Utd, but it was in his last such match against them (1-1 at Goodison Park, March 2020).
- Manchester United have conceded four penalties in their six Premier League games this season, already more than they had in their 38 games last season (3). Indeed, only in four completed campaigns have they ever faced more penalties in the competition (5 in 2006-07 and 2016-17, 6 in 2010-11 and 2018-19).
Crystal Palace v Leeds
- 15:00 GMT on BT Sport Box Office
- Match odds: Home 19/10 | Draw 23/10 | Away 7/5
Leeds' 4-1 defeat to Leicester on Monday made it seem like it was all one-way, and even though Leeds' defence was beyond poor in the first-half, they did battle back in the second and could have easily made it 2-2. With a trip to Crystal Palace next, they can expect their opponents to line up in similar fashion.
Palace are a bit of an odd team. They still sit bottom of the average shots per game chart in the Premier League (8.1) but have eight goals on their tally. Crucially, they are picking up points and both teams sit on ten after seven games. Victory here will see either team likely sit in the top-half at the international break.
Leeds tend to struggle against the teams who are happy to sit back and let the Whites enjoy possession as they look to hit them on the counter. Wolves did it, so did Leicester, and it was a running theme through games that Marcelo Bielsa's side lost in the Sky Bet Championship.
What that does mean though is a high corner count. Leeds had ten compared to Leicester's three last while there were eight to Wolves' three in their home contest before that. Bielsa's side have also had more corners in games against Sheffield United and Fulham.
Palace have only had the most corners in two of their seven Premier League games so far and at an odds-against price, it's worth backing that run to become two from eight. It's worth remembering that Leeds were a very high corner count side in the Championship too.
The fact that this bet sees Leeds favourites with some bookmakers while outsiders with others shows how uncertain they are in this area but the stats generally favour Leeds. If Palace sit back and look to hit on the counter, Leeds should see a majority when it comes to corners.
The outright result is a difficult one to call and is probably worth avoiding altogether, but if I was forced to decide I'd be happy enough to sit on the fence and take the draw.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1-1 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Best bet: Leeds to take the most corners at 11/10
Opta facts
- Crystal Palace are unbeaten in their last four home league games against Leeds (W2 D2), with this the first such meeting since a 2-2 draw in the Championship in March 2013.
- Leeds have won three of their last four Premier League meetings with Crystal Palace (L1), with this their first such game since a 2-0 win at Selhurst Park in January 1998.
- Leeds United have won just one of their last 20 away league games against London sides (D6 L13), beating QPR 3-1 in December 2017.
- Leeds are looking to win three consecutive Premier League away games for the first time since August 2002, while they last won three in a row on the road without conceding in the top-flight in August 1970.
- Crystal Palace have had fewer shots than any other side in the Premier League this season (57), while only Liverpool have had more than Leeds (96). However, Crystal Palace have scored with 14% of their efforts so far, their best shot conversion rate in a Premier League season on record (since 1997-98).
Chelsea v Sheffield United
- 17:30 GMT on Sky Sports Premier League
- Match odds: Home 4/11 | Draw 4/1 | Away 7/1
Chelsea are enjoying a run of five clean sheets in all competitions and there's a good chance that could continue against a Sheffield United side who have struggled to provide a real threat in front of goal. The three goals scored is the joint-lowest in the Premier League.
They have looked to address that by bringing in Rhian Brewster and the forward provides good value at Stamford Bridge on Saturday, although not in the way that many have expected - the 11/2 available on a card is a tad too generous based on his recent record.
Chris Wilder was keen to add Brewster to his ranks given the youngster's fine record in front of goal. He netted eleven times in 20 appearances for Swansea last season, and while he may bring goals at Bramall Lane, Wilder will have to expect some cards to come along the way.
In just half a season in south Wales, Brewster was shown a huge seven yellow cards. He was also carded in Liverpool's Carabao Cup clash with Arsenal in the first-half of the campaign. A week later, he was booked in the Reds' UEFA Youth League defeat to Genk.
It was evident that he was getting frustrated in last week's defeat to Manchester City, particularly in the latter stages of the contest. He had two fouls in that game, taking his total to three - he made one against his former club the previous week before being taken off just before the hour.
Both of his fouls against City came in the opposition half and we should see a similar trend here given how much Chelsea's defenders like to have the ball; Thiago Silva and Ben Chilwell sit in the top-ten in the Premier League for average passes per game.
Brewster posted 31 fouls during his time at Swansea which is a huge amount when you consider his limited time at the club. Given the step up in division, and the fact he will most likely start every game for the Blades, we could perhaps expect that figure to near enough double this season.
The appointment of Jonathan Moss as referee gives this selection further hope as he's shown at least three yellow cards in five of his six matches this season. There was a season-high of seven as Aston Villa beat Leicester while he showed four in Chelsea's 3-3 draw at West Brom. He also sits fourth for average fouls awarded per game in the Premier League this season.
The outright result market sees Chelsea heavy odds-on but taking a home win with under 3.5 goals moves it to an odds-against 6/5. A staggering 47 of United's last 50 games have seen three goals or less, that run can continue here given Chelsea's recent defensive record.
The best bet though comes in taking Brewster to be carded at 11/2.
Score prediction: Chelsea 2-0 Sheffield United (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Best bet: Rhian Brewster to be carded at 11/2
Opta facts
- Chelsea have conceded exactly twice in five of their last six home league games against Sheffield United (W2 D2 L2), keeping a clean sheet in the other (3-0 in March 2007).
- Sheffield United avoided defeat in both league games against Chelsea last season (W1 D1), coming from 0-2 down to draw 2-2 in this exact fixture in August 2019.
- Sheffield United are one of just four clubs against whom Chelsea have lost more Premier League games than they’ve won (W3 L4), alongside Oldham Athletic (W0 L3), Liverpool (W20 L23) and Arsenal (W19 L20).
- Chelsea are unbeaten in their last five Premier League games (W2 D3), last having a longer run in the competition between September-November 2019 (6).
- One point from seven games marks Sheffield United’s joint-worst ever start to a league campaign in their history (level with 1975-76, when they finished bottom of the top-flight). Meanwhile, the Blades haven’t remained winless in their first eight games of a league campaign since 1990-91.
Odds correct at 1550 GMT (05/11/20)
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