The Premier League returns following European action in midweek and Tom Carnduff has four best bets for Saturday's games.
Recommended bets
1pt Tomas Soucek to score anytime in West Ham v Manchester City at 5/1
1pt Fulham to beat Crystal Palace at 19/10
1pt Over 3.5 goals in Manchester United v Chelsea at 8/5
1pt Sadio Mane to have 5+ total shots in Liverpool v Sheffield United at 9/4
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
West Ham v Manchester City
- 12:30 BST on BT Sport 1
- Match odds: Home 13/2 | Draw 17/4 | Away 4/11
West Ham's remarkable comeback against Tottenham was the highlight of the latest round of Premier League fixtures and they will be hoping to utilise that momentum as they welcome a Manchester City side who were successful against Porto in the Champions League in midweek.
We expected the Hammers to be in a tough position at this stage but they've come out of a run of games against Arsenal, Wolves, Leicester and Tottenham with seven points and they won't be fearing coming up against this City side given those results.
Despite that, City come into the game as expected with 4/11 the price available on them coming away from the capital with all three points. Even with West Ham's solid run, we have to remember that they were outplayed for large parts of that game against Tottenham and they did pull off a miraculous comeback.
City will be eager for three points here after becoming the favourites for the title. It won't be easy though and the Hammers have every chance of finding the net as they have done in recent contests. The one player who stands out as a real value selection is Tomas Soucek.
The West Ham midfielder hasn't netted this term but did score three in his half-season during the disrupted 2019/20 campaign. Alongside the 12 he scored for Slavia Prague in the moves before his move, he enjoyed a prolific season for someone who doesn't play as a forward.
It's easy to see why his goal count is so high when we watch him play. Despite sometimes appearing as a defensive midfielder he wants to attack and can often be seen charging into the opposition box when the opportunity presents itself.
He's good in all attacking situations and has demonstrated an ability to score in a variety of ways. There is also the shot count to go with it too; he's had at least two shots in each of his five Premier League appearances so far. Even with the Hammers' tough fixture list to start the campaign, they have averaged 14.2 shots per game which is the seventh-highest in the league.
We know about the problems that City's defence has faced this season. While we should expect them to move up the table with three points on Saturday, it may not be as straightforward as they will hope for and West Ham can strike at least once in the contest.
Score prediction: West Ham 1-3 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Best bet: Tomas Soucek to score anytime at 5/1
Opta facts
- West Ham have lost their last nine matches against Manchester City in all competitions, only enduring a longer losing run against Arsenal (a run of 10 between 2010 and 2015) in their entire history.
- Manchester City have won each of their five away matches in all competitions at London Stadium against West Ham by an aggregate score of 22-1, scoring at least four times in all five matches. City scored 22 goals in their last 20 matches against the Hammers at Upton Park.
- West Ham have shipped at least four goals in each of their last four home league matches against Man City – only one other team has ever done this in the history of the Football League since 1888, with Man City conceding 4+ goals in four home games in a row against Wolves between 1957 and 1960.
- This is the first time West Ham are starting a Premier League match against Man City above them in the table since March 2009, when they beat the Citizens 1-0 at Upton Park.
- No team has scored 3+ goals in more different Premier League games in 2020 than West Ham (9). Indeed, the Hammers have scored at least three goals in nine of their 24 league games since David Moyes returned, as many as in their last 50 under Manuel Pellegrini.
Fulham v Crystal Palace
- 15:00 BST on BT Sport Box Office
- Match odds: Home 19/10 | Draw 11/5 | Away 8/5
Fulham may only have the single point on the board but Saturday's clash with Crystal Palace presents a great opportunity to secure their first league win of the campaign.
Scott Parker's side endured a poor start but have improved since the transfer window closed with a narrow defeat at Wolves followed by a 1-1 draw at Sheffield United; Billy Sharp's late penalty denying them all three points on offer.
In Palace, they come up against a side who have struggled to create in attack. They have posted just five (yes, five) total shots across their last two games with last week's draw against Brighton seeing just one total shot - that was a penalty which resulted in the goal.
It's hardly a surprise to see they sit bottom of the average shots per game charts. The 6.4 posted by Palace is considerably lower than the 8 by West Brom in 19th. With their shots against average at 14.6, the fifth-highest in the Premier League, we can see the issues they are facing.
Fulham enjoyed the better of the chances at Bramall Lane with 15 shots compared to the Blades' ten. We also have to factor in that Aleksandar Mitrovic missed a penalty and if that had gone in, we could be talking about a Fulham side looking for back-to-back victories.
Ademola Lookman got straight into the action with a goal following his temporary switch from RB Leipzig in the transfer window and his anytime goalscorer odds of 7/2 can't be ignored. He saw three total shots, two of which were on target, in the draw last time out.
I certainly won't be rushing to part with £14.95 to watch this game but Fulham's price for victory provides some of the best value available on Saturday. Palace's last two performances haven't been great with very little attacking threat and the hosts can capitalise on that here.
Fulham posting xG figures of 1.02 (v Wolves) and 1.82 (v Sheffield United) highlight that things are getting better for them. Recent performances don't accurately reflect their position in the table and they can counter that poor start with three points at Craven Cottage.
Score prediction: Fulham 2-0 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Best bet: Fulham to win at 19/10
Opta facts
- Fulham and Crystal Palace last met in the Premier League in 2018-19, with Palace winning both matches 2-0.
- Crystal Palace are looking to win three consecutive league matches against Fulham for the first time since October 1930.
- Crystal Palace have kept just two clean sheets in their last 28 Premier League London derbies – however, both of these came in victories against Fulham in the 2018-19 season.
- Crystal Palace have failed to score in six of their last seven away games in all competitions (W1 D1 L5), with the only exception in that run being a 3-1 victory at Manchester United.
Manchester United v Chelsea
- 17:30 BST on Sky Sports Premier League
- Match odds: Home 7/5 | Draw 13/5 | Away 7/4
It was another memorable night in Paris for Manchester United as they secured a Champions League victory over PSG, but they need to start finding a consistent run of results as they look for progression in all competitions.
Two wins and two draws has left them 15th in the Premier League table and they come up against a Chelsea side whose defensive frailties are harming their long-term chances of success under Frank Lampard.
The issues at the back have seen Chelsea endure over 3.5 goals in four of their five league contests so far. For Manchester United, their record is 100% with four or more in every fixture. At a best price of 8/5, and with 6/4 available across the board, it's worth backing that run to continue in this contest.
Both sides are really top heavy. Chelsea's star-studded forward line has helped them scored 13 goals but the nine goals against is the second-highest in the top-14 of the Premier League standings. A team with a worse defensive record? Manchester United and their 12 goals conceded in four games.
Goalscoring hasn't been a problem with nine in their four column and they should add a couple more here; anything other than that will be viewed as a missed opportunity.
It seems like all or nothing with Lampard and this Chelsea side. Goals are almost guaranteed at both ends but when they can finally pull their defence together, as we saw in the clean sheet against Sevilla, they failed to offer anything at the other end and couldn't score themselves.
Timo Werner looks a solid anytime goalscorer shout at 7/4 while Marcus Rashford is available at 2/1 to score for the hosts. If goals are to come, we can expect Werner and Rashford to be involved in some capacity.
But with neither side overly convincing, the draw may be the best outright option to side with. That is available at 13/5 but in all honesty there is little appeal in looking at the result. With the two defences involved, plenty of goals could be on the cards at Old Trafford.
Score prediction: Manchester United 2-2 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Best bet: Over 3.5 goals at 8/5
Opta facts
- Manchester United are looking to win three consecutive top-flight meetings against Chelsea for the first time since September 1965 under Matt Busby.
- Chelsea are winless in their last seven Premier League away matches against Manchester United (D4 L3); it is the Blues’ longest run without a top-flight win at Old Trafford since a 16-game streak between September 1920 and January 1957.
- Since the start of last season, Chelsea’s away Premier League games have seen more goals scored than any other side’s have in the competition (87), with the Blues shipping more goals on the road than any other Premier League side in that time (42).
- So far in 2020, only Arsenal (15) have dropped more points from winning positions in the Premier League than Chelsea (13), while no side have gained more points from behind than Manchester United (13).
- Manchester United striker Marcus Rashford has scored four goals in his last three games against Chelsea in all competitions, including a brace in this exact league fixture last season – the last Red Devils player to score 2+ goals in consecutive home top-flight matches against Chelsea was Tommy Taylor in 1957.
Liverpool v Sheffield United
- 20:00 BST on Sky Sports Box Office
- Match odds: Home 2/9 | Draw 21/4 | Away 11/1
Liverpool's defensive worries are clear for all to see with Virgil van Dijk out for the long term and Adrian stepping in for Alisson in goal but a clean sheet in their Champions League encounter against Ajax suggests that it may not be as bad as we perhaps expected.
In Sheffield United, they face a side struggling to get anywhere near the heights of last season. Post-lockdown performances have carried into the current campaign and they sit 19th after five games with one point and two goals on their tally.
Having picked up just one point from their last two Premier League encounters, Liverpool will be eager to return to winning ways and this game presents them with a good opportunity to do so. The Blades have put in some blunt performances and Chris Wilder isn't happy with the levels shown by his squad.
In Wednesday's win over Ajax, Jurgen Klopp made a treble change on the hour mark with the forward line of Mohamed Salah, Roberto Firmino and Sadio Mane coming off. That keeps them fresh for this encounter and the latter should enjoy plenty of opportunities on goal.
Mane sits second to Salah (5) for average shots per game in this Liverpool side with 4.3. He went above that with five attempts against Arsenal and Leeds and there's good value in the same happening here at a price of 9/4 with Sky Bet.
Liverpool sit top of the charts for average shots per game by some distance. The 19.4 they have so far is well clear of Manchester City's 16.5 and we can expect them to hit that figure, and even exceed it, in a game against a Sheffield United side who have seen 13.4 against.
That average has been dragged down by the fact they came up against Arsenal, a low shot team, but Aston Villa enjoyed 18 shots while Leeds had 17. Even Fulham, bottom of the table, outshot the Blades 15-10. Liverpool can easily smash that 20-marker.
Leading that charge will be Mane and Salah. Salah is the more fancied of the two in the odds but Mane has posted similar figures and expecting five total shots isn't too big of an answer given the opposition. It should be a comfortable evening for the Reds.
Score prediction: Liverpool 3-0 Sheffield United (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Best bet: Sadio Mane to have 5+ total shots
Opta facts
- Liverpool have won their last three Premier League games against Sheffield United without conceding a single goal, winning by an aggregate score of 3-0 last season.
- Sheffield United have lost 19 of their last 23 away top-flight matches against Liverpool (W3 D1) with their last win at Anfield coming back in April 1994 (a 2-1 victory courtesy of a brace from Jostein Flo).
- Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 61 Premier League home games, winning 27 of their last 28 at Anfield. They’ve netted 162 goals in these 61 games (2.7 per game), while conceding just 40 in return (0.7 per game).
- Sheffield United have lost 16 of their last 17 away league matches against the reigning top-flight champion, winning the other 1-0 in 1971-72 at Highbury against Arsenal via a goal from Stewart Scullion.
- Sheffield United are the only side yet to be ahead in a Premier League match this season, picking up their first point of the campaign against Fulham last time out.
Odds correct on 1430 BST (22/10/20)
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