There are four games in the Premier League on Saturday with Arsenal and Manchester United both in action. Tom Carnduff picks out four best bets.
Recommended bets
1pt James Rodriguez to score from outside the area in Everton v West Brom at 10/1
1pt Leeds to take the most corners (-2 handicap) v Fulham at Evens
1pt Crystal Palace to have 4+ shots on target against Manchester United at 7/4
1pt Arsenal to win and over 3.5 goals in the match at 13/5
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Arsenal v West Ham
- 20:00 BST - Sky Sports Premier League
It's always important not to get carried away with results after one game of the season, but West Ham's 2-0 defeat at home to Newcastle may well turn out to be an important result in May.
The two teams should be considered relegation rivals and losing as they did will have hurt the Hammers - and worried their fans. Another poor transfer window has left them in this situation, and with a visit to Arsenal coming up next, they should remain on zero points heading into matchday three.
West Ham are, by all accounts, still in the market with Burnley defender James Tarkowski a target. National reports suggested a third bid of £31million on Thursday but local media in Lancashire said the opposite. The cynical side of me thinks that this could be an empty pursuit to suggest a serious desire for improvements.
This isn't a bad West Ham side but moves off the pitch, or lack of, has clearly had its effect. Mark Noble's angry tweet at the sale of Grady Diangana to West Brom was then followed up with defeat to Newcastle a week later; then there are the ongoing rumours surrounding the future of manager David Moyes.
Arsenal, on the other hand, began their season in excellent fashion with a convincing 3-0 win away at newly-promoted Fulham. With Liverpool, Sheffield United, Manchester City, Leicester and Manchester United to come in their next five games, they will know the importance of another three points here.
Mikel Arteta's short time at the club has already brought success in the form of the FA Cup but perhaps the most impressive element is that he's given direction to a side that severely lacked it. The Gunners have struggled to battle for Champions League football since the Arsene Wenger days; now they look like a side capable of entering it.
Of all the possible transfer business that Arsenal could have done in this window, getting Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang to sign a new contract was the most important. He is a vital cog in this system and the forward committing his future to the club is a great indicator of how much the squad have bought into Arteta's ways.
Again, this is a game with the home side heavy odds-on but backing an Arsenal win with a margin takes us into odds-against territory. The -1 handicap is a best price of 6/4 with Betfair and Sky Bet while 13/5 is on offer with Paddy Power for a home win and over 3.5 goals in the match.
Given how the Asian Handicap overs market opened at 3, and remains at 3, makes it the biggest tally for Saturday's fixtures, there is better value on offer in taking a home win with four or more goals in the contest.
As poor as the result was for West Ham, we can't ignore the fact that they did have some good opportunities against Newcastle and posted an xG of 1.18. They may well grab a goal here, but it should be a game which Arsenal enjoy once again.
Score prediction: Arsenal 3-1 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Best bet: Arsenal to win and over 3.5 goals in the match at 13/5
Opta facts
- Arsenal have won 10 of their last 11 home games against West Ham United in all competitions, with the only exception being on the opening day of the 2015-16 Premier League season (0-2).
- West Ham United have lost more Premier League matches against Arsenal (31) than versus any other opponent, while only against Everton (34) have the Gunners enjoyed more wins in the competition than they have over the Hammers.
- West Ham boss David Moyes has never won away to Arsenal as a manager in any competition, drawing four and losing 15 of his 19 visits. Only at Chelsea (20) has he taken charge of more away games against an opponent without ever winning in his managerial career.
- Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has scored eight goals in his last six appearances for Arsenal in all competitions, netting in each of his last four games for the Gunners. The Gabonese striker has also been directly involved in 15 goals in his last 16 Premier League London derbies (12 goals, 3 assists).
- Willian created more chances than any other Arsenal player in their 3-0 win against Fulham on MD1, becoming the first player to assist two goals on his Premier League debut for the side since Ray Parlour against Liverpool in August 1992.
Manchester United v Crystal Palace
- 17:30 - Sky Sports Premier League
Manchester United were given the week off given their Europa League involvement in August but there remains a feeling of frustration surrounding their transfer activity, or lack of, during this extended window.
Donny van de Beek has joined from Ajax but their pursuit of Jadon Sancho perhaps best sums up where United are compared with their rivals in the market. We can include Gareth Bale and Sergio Reguilon in this area too; the Real Madrid duo are now off to Tottenham instead.
It's always difficult to know what to expect from a team in their first game of the season but the Asian Handicap having the hosts at a huge -1.5 shows the money is behind Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's side starting the campaign with three points. Based on how they finished the 2019/20 season, it's difficult to argue otherwise.
This United side does have quality and the lack of incomings won't signal a drastic drop down into the bottom-half but the feeling remains that they are falling behind their rivals yet again when it comes to strengthening. That will be a concern for further down the line; they have enough now to get past Palace on Saturday.
With the arrivals of Eberechi Eze and Michy Batshuayi, we could expect Palace to address their goalscoring issues that weighed them down last season; it's why the odds-against price for just ten total shots initially catches the eye. But, rather worryingly, there were just five shots against Southampton and then four (!) shots in the Carabao Cup against Bournemouth.
So, based on the above, it would be wise to stay well clear of Palace in the shots market for their trip to Old Trafford right? Well, not quite. In fact, at 7/4 with Sky Bet, it's worth backing the visitors to have at least four shots on target in this contest.
It may seem counterintuitive based on their showings so far but last season demonstrated to us how Palace do get opportunities to strike against the top-six teams. In fact, they hit four or more shots on target in games against four of the top-six. Leicester and Manchester City were the teams they fell short against, but they did have three in one of their two meetings against them.
The two fixtures against Manchester United brought three and five shots on target. They had six against champions Liverpool, with the same coming in their trip to Tottenham. There were also four against Chelsea. Their overall shots tally may be low but the on-target figure is actually decent enough against the better sides.
Four shots on target was the average for half of the Premier League last season and you imagine Palace will be targeting that figure or better during this campaign as they aim to improve their attacking output. They've shown they can do it against the top teams, and with this being Manchester United's first competitive match of the campaign, it could well happen again here.
United should win this, even with Palace having the advantage of two more games last week, but the visitors will get opportunities to strike and the 7/4 on four or more shots on target is worth a play.
Score prediction: Manchester United 1-0 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Opta facts
- Manchester United have only lost one of their 22 Premier League meetings with Crystal Palace (W17 D4). However, this defeat came in this exact fixture last season after Patrick van Aanholt became the first (and to date, only) visiting player to score a 90th-minute winner away to Man Utd in the Premier League.
- Crystal Palace have never previously won back-to-back league trips to Manchester United; only six sides have won away at Old Trafford in consecutive Premier League seasons – Man City (three in a row on two occasions), Bolton, Liverpool, Southampton, Tottenham and West Brom.
- Since his debut for the club in February, Bruno Fernandes has been involved in 20 of Man Utd’s 51 goals in all competitions (39%), leading the way for both goals (12) and assists (8) for the Red Devils in that time.
- After scoring Crystal Palace’s winner against Southampton on MD1, Wilfried Zaha is looking to score in consecutive Premier League games for the first time since November 2019. However, the Ivorian scored just once in his 19 away league games last season.
- Crystal Palace’s Wilfried Zaha has only faced Tottenham (10 games) more times in the Premier League without registering a single goal or assist than he has against Man Utd (9).
Leeds v Fulham
- 15:00 BST - BT Sport
Leeds might well finish in the top-half this season, it could all go wrong and they end up relegated, but the one thing that seems certain is that they will be great to watch throughout the course of the campaign.
We eagerly awaited Marcelo Bielsa's arrival in the Premier League and it did not disappoint. Leeds played their way in a game against the Premier League champions; showcasing their intent on attack and man-marking all over the pitch. If it wasn't for a mistake from Rodrigo to give away a late penalty they would have likely got a point against the champions.
Eleven changes for the midweek defeat to Hull in the Carabao Cup shows that their priority is firmly on the league and they should pick up their first Premier League points since 2004 with victory over Fulham at Elland Road.
Leeds are 8/13 and -0.75 on the Asian Handicap. They would have always been the favourites for this contest but the performance at Anfield has further shortened the odds available. Instead, favouring Leeds in the corners market provides a better price.
The Whites are 2/5 to take the most corners here but they are even-money shouts to win the corners battle with a -2 handicap. Based on their track record last season, that looks good value.
Leeds won the corner battle in three of their five home games post-lockdown and all three of those saw the -2 handicap being covered. One of those draws was against Fulham, where Leeds won 3-0, but the hosts taking the most corners in the second-half is a better indicator of what we can expect this time around.
In fact, a high corner count could be likely when four of those five games saw this statistic hit double figures. It seems somewhat remarkable that Leeds didn't have a single corner against Liverpool, despite it being away at the current champions, given their numbers under Bielsa.
Leeds led the way for corners in the Sky Bet Championship last season with an average of 7.70 while Fulham sat at a much lower figure of 5.74. Given the contrasting showings on opening weekend, we should expect Leeds to enjoy the better of the chances and that should lead to corners.
Even that much-changed young Leeds side got seven in the midweek defeat to Hull. That was a performance that reflected the disruption of a new starting XI and yet they still managed to rack up the tally.
A theme throughout Saturday's fixtures is that low price on home teams winning but it's hard to disagree with the odds based on last week. Leeds should win this one, but the better value comes in taking the Whites to win the corners battle.
Score prediction: Leeds 2-0 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Best bet: Leeds to take the most corners (-2 handicap) at evens
Opta facts
- The side playing at home has not lost any of the last eight league meetings between Leeds United and Fulham (W3 D5), winning the last three in a row. Indeed, in the Premier League, the home team has won each of the last four clashes between the two sides.
- After their 3-0 win over Fulham in June in the Championship, Leeds are looking to win back-to-back league meetings with the Cottagers for the first time since December 2003, during their last Premier League season.
- After winning their first ever Premier League game in Yorkshire (1-0 v Leeds in April 2002), Fulham have lost their last seven top-flight trips to the county by an aggregate score of 3-18.
- Leeds scored with all three of their shots on target in their opening day defeat against Liverpool – the Whites scored with just 31% of their shots on target in the Championship last season, the joint-4th lowest rate in the division.
- Patrick Bamford has scored in two of his last three Premier League appearances (dating back to May 2017), including a Leeds debut goal in the competition last week. He hadn’t scored in any of his first 25 games in the competition, though only two of those appearances were as a starter.
Everton v West Brom
- 12:30 BST - BT Sport
The Saturday Premier League coupon has returned to some normality with four home teams all odds-on for success. In the early kick-off, it's hard to argue against the 8/15 available on Everton to pick up another three points.
Carlo Ancelotti's side were excellent in their 1-0 victory over Tottenham and should have won by a greater margin given the impact of their new-look midfield.
Richarlison was the standout performer on the left wing and it was a performance that deserved a goal. However, on the opposite flank, James Rodriguez had little issue in adapting to life in new surroundings and provided a threat throughout the 91 minutes he was involved for.
I'd agree with Paul Macdonald of FootballCritic that Richarlison's performance against Tottenham could well bring a goal here, but in a game where the Toffees are expected to net on more than one occasion, Rodriguez looks the value.
The winger is a best price of 5/2 with Betfair and Paddy Power to score anytime. That price is decent enough and worth consideration but the 10/1 with Sky Bet on a goal coming from outside the area just seems a tad too generous and is preferred.
Two of Rodriguez's three shots against Tottenham came from outside the area and he came close to netting a debut goal with one of those efforts just curling wide of the post. That is hardly a surprise; this is a player who has averaged over two shots per game across his last six seasons and so often they come from range.
A look back at the 2018/19 Bundesliga season, where Rodriguez only started 13 games for Bayern Munich, has him joint-second for most goals scored from outside the area by midfield players. He's proven that it is a strong area if allowed the right amount of game time to strike.
The great news for Rodriguez, for Everton and indeed the neutral is that he will be a regular starter in this squad. The 2014/15 season at Real Madrid, where Ancelotti and Rodriguez were together, also brought 17 goals and 18 assists for the Colombian international. Perhaps we should expect to see a similar 2.1 shots per game average of which 1.1 were on target in that campaign.
Against a West Brom team whose transfer activity has left a lot to be desired, and whose opening game was maybe a good indicator of how this season will go, it's worth taking the bigger odds on Rodriguez to strike from outside the area.
There's little point sitting and arguing against Everton's odds for victory here, but with the Asian Handicap sitting on -1 in the home team's favour, the 6/4 with Betfair on Everton to win with a -1 handicap is where the best outright bet can be found. But at 10/1, we can't turn down a strike from distance from one of the Toffees' new boys.
Score prediction: Everton 2-0 West Brom (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Best bet: James Rodriguez to score from outside the area at 10/1
Opta facts
- Everton have lost just one of their last 11 Premier League encounters with West Bromwich Albion (W5 D5), a 0-1 reverse at Goodison Park in February 2016 under Roberto Martínez.
- West Brom have only won two of their 12 Premier League visits to Goodison Park (D4 L6), and just two of their last 19 away games at Everton in the top-flight overall (D8 L9).
- Following their 1-0 win at Spurs on MD1, Everton are looking for back-to-back victories at the start of a Premier League campaign for the first time since 2012-13.
- Everton boss Carlo Ancelotti has never lost a Premier League game to a newly promoted club in 15 previous such matches (W11 D4); this is the most any manager has faced promoted sides without ever suffering defeat to one in the competition.
- James Rodríguez created five chances on his Premier League debut for Everton last week, the most by a debutant in the competition since Alexis Sánchez with Arsenal in August 2014 (also 5).
Odds correct at 1600 BST (16/09/20)
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