Mark your card for Saturday's Premier League games with George Pitts providing a best bet and score prediction for each clash.
Recommended bets
2pts 20+ Brighton booking points at 4/5
1pt Abdoulaye Doucoure to score anytime in Watford v Leicester at 23/5
0.5pt Sheffield United -1 v Newcastle at 4/1
0.5pt Marcos Alonso 2+ shots on target in Aston Villa v Chelsea at 3/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
NOTE: Preview published prior to any postponements
Watford v Leicester
- 12:30 GMT kick-off on BT Sport
Regular readers of these tips will know this was only tipped last week, but Abdoulaye Doucoure very nearly scored and he is worth backing anytime again at 23/5.
Nigel Pearson will have the Hornets fired up for the visit of his former club and if they are to get something from this one, then the French midfielder could play a key role.
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Doucoure is probably still considered a holding midfielder by the bookies, but Pearson has instilled confidence and given him the freedom of a more advanced role - he has already reaped the rewards with three Premier League goals in 2020.
With Gerard Deulofeu out for the rest of the season, Doucoure will be even more important in his role supporting Troy Deeney, especially at Vicarage Road. He gets into dangerous positions and his rate of shooting is quite impressive.
In his last five games he has had two, two, two, two and four attempts, and going further back he consistently tries his luck. Five in one game against Arsenal earlier in the season, four against Bournemouth and three against both West Ham and Villa.
He had two efforts on goal in the loss at Palace last week and the powerful Watford star is available at just under 5/1 to score here.
Leicester were much improved against Villa on Monday, but their form in 2020 has been far from convincing and on their day Watford know just how to win under Pearson.
Score prediction: Watford 2-1 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Best bet: Abdoulaye Doucoure to score anytime at 23/5
Opta stats
- Watford have won their last three home Premier League games against Leicester City, with each victory coming via a 2-1 scoreline.
- Nine of the 11 Premier League meetings between Watford and Leicester City have been won by the home side (82%), including each of the last seven. Among fixtures to have been played 10+ times, only Birmingham City vs Middlesbrough (90%) has seen a higher percentage of home wins.
- Since Nigel Pearson’s first home match in charge of Watford (22nd December), only Liverpool (18) have won more points in home Premier League games than the Hornets (13 – W4 D1 L1).
- Leicester are winless in their last three Premier League away games (D1 L2), failing to score in their last two. The Foxes last went three away league games without a goal back in February 2017 under Claudio Ranieri (a run of four).
- Leicester striker Jamie Vardy has scored 99 Premier League goals; his next strike will see him become the 29th player to reach a century in the competition, and the 16th to do so for a single club.
- Watford’s Troy Deeney has been involved in six goals in his last six Premier League home games (4 goals, 2 assists), as many as he had in his previous 25 at Vicarage Road (5 goals, 1 assist).
AFC Bournemouth v Crystal Palace
Palace's win over Watford last week eased fears, leaving them just one point from the magic 40-point mark.
While there is arguably a danger of them relaxing a little, you would expect Roy Hodgson to be on their case and making sure they do not take their foot off the gas too early, even with a 12-point gap over the bottom three.
These sort of clashes can be incredibly cagey, with sides not wanting to take risks and often making for a pretty poor watch - just see last week's 3pm kick-offs, which all had one goal or less.
With this approach in mind and the fact the Eagles are pretty shy up front, they could just nick it despite the Cherries' better recent home form.
Alternatively, backing the visitors on a +1 handicap is worth considering but it is one we would rather sit out in truth, with preferred fancies elsewhere.
Score prediction: Bournemouth 0-1 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Best bet: Palace to win by one goal at 4/1
Opta stats
- Since their 1-0 win at Chelsea in December, Bournemouth have taken just eight points from their subsequent 12 Premier League games (W2 D2 L8) – no side has won fewer points in that time. However, all eight of those points have been won in home games.
- Crystal Palace have won their last three Premier League games, each by a 1-0 scoreline. They last won four in a row in August 2018, while they’ve never won four consecutive top-flight games without conceding.
- No side has kept fewer clean sheets in the Premier League this season than Bournemouth (4). Indeed, the Cherries have conceded at least once in each of their last 12 Premier League games, the longest current run in the competition.
- Crystal Palace’s Patrick van Aanholt has scored more Premier League goals against Bournemouth than he has vs any other side (3). The Dutchman netted home and away against them for the Eagles last season.
- Jordan Ayew’s eight Premier League goals have been worth 14 points to Crystal Palace this season. Crystal Palace’s record when Ayew scores this season is W6 D2 L0, with five of the Ghanaian’s strikes being the winning goal of the game.
Brighton v Arsenal
After all their preparations for a midweek trip to Man City, Arsenal's game was postponed due to coronavirus fears and they could be much fresher and raring to go after an extra few days' rest.
Brighton are on a terrible run, without a win in 2020 and with just one since their shock victory at the Emirates at the start of December.
Arsenal have a new man in charge now and have come a long way since. The ultimate test for Mikel Arteta's side, though, is to see if they can avoid slip-ups in away games against struggling teams as we have seen in the past.
With this fully possible, the preference is to go with a short-priced bookings shout with much more confidence.
Graham Potter's side have probably built up a lot of frustration in their recent run and it shows, with the cards coming on a regular basis.
They had three in the draw at Wolves last week (where they registered just one shot on target), two against Palace, two at Sheffield United and two against Watford. All in succession.
Whether they are trailing and frustrated or looking to see out the draw or win here, they look likely to be shown at least two cards by referee Paul Tierney, who has dished out 85 yellows and three reds in 27 games this term. At a shade under evens to reach this tally, we'll take that.
Score prediction: Brighton 1-2 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Best bet: 20+ Brighton booking points at 4/5
Opta stats
- Brighton lost their first Premier League meeting against Arsenal in October 2017 but are unbeaten in four games against the Gunners since (W2 D2).
- Brighton remain the only side without a win in the Premier League in 2020, with the Seagulls drawing six and losing three since the turn of the year.
- Brighton are unbeaten in all three of their Premier League home games against the six ever-present sides in the competition this season, beating Spurs and Everton before drawing with Chelsea.
- Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 23 Premier League games kicking off at 3pm on a Saturday (W19 D4), since a 0-1 loss against West Brom in November 2015. This is the first time Arsenal have had 3pm kick-offs on successive Saturdays in the competition since October 2016 (3-2 v Swansea, 0-0 v Middlesbrough).
- Brighton manager Graham Potter has won his last two games against Arsenal in all competitions, winning 2-1 away with both Östersunds FK in the Europa League in February 2018 and Brighton earlier this season. His only previous home game against the Gunners was a 3-0 defeat in February 2018 with Östersunds FK.
- Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has scored both of Arsenal’s two Premier League goals at the Amex, scoring in March and December 2018. The last Gunners player to score their first three Premier League goals at a stadium was Ian Wright at The Dell in March 1994.
Manchester City v Burnley
This match may have been City's reserves - not like that would make too much of a difference - but after their match against Arsenal was postponed in midweek and with their Champions League last-16 match with Real Madrid, originally scheduled for Tuesday, called off too, Pep Guardiola could go full-strength to keep his side sharp and fit.
With this in mind, there is preference to look at goals and to expect plenty of them. While Burnley have been in excellent form, going unbeaten in five matches, their run is going to come to an end sooner or later and, at the Etihad, you would expect that to come here.
The Citizens are usually strong at home under Guardiola, scoring 31 first-half goals there in 13 games this term, and if they name a strong line-up then two or more goals before the interval at odds against looks worth considering.
With the same thinking in mind, a quick start for a strong City team is a regular occurrence and they are 12/5 to be leading after 15 minutes, but we prefer the first half option.
Score prediction: Manchester City 3-1 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Best bet: Over 1.5 first half goals at 11/10
Opta stats
- Manchester City have won their five home games against Burnley in all competitions under Pep Guardiola, scoring 19 goals and conceding just two.
- Manchester City have scored at least twice in each of their last 10 home games in all competitions against Burnley (W7 D3), netting 36 goals in total.
- Manchester City have lost just one of their last 42 Premier League games kicking off at 3pm on a Saturday (W36 D5), with that defeat coming in December 2018 against Crystal Palace.
- After a run of four consecutive Premier League defeats, Burnley are unbeaten in their last seven in the Premier League (W4 D3), their longest such run in over a year (8 games between December 2018-February 2019).
- Burnley are looking to become just the fourth team to win away at both Manchester clubs in a single Premier League season, after Liverpool in 2008-09, Middlesbrough in 2003-04 and Everton in 1992-93.
- In all competitions, Burnley goalkeeper Nick Pope has conceded 17 goals against Manchester City – eight more than he’s conceded against any other side at the Clarets.
- Man City striker Sergio Agüero has scored nine goals in nine appearances against Burnley in all competitions – he has scored in all five home games against the Clarets, netting on average every 47 minutes at the Etihad (six goals in 281 minutes).
- Man City manager Pep Guardiola has won 16 of his 18 Premier League home games against English managers (D1 L1). The only such manager to take points from Guardiola’s City at the Etihad is Roy Hodgson, winning 3-2 last season and drawing 2-2 this term.
Newcastle v Sheff United
Sheffield United are having a phenomenal season and Europe could well be in their sights, but in Newcastle they face a side that has already beaten them this term.
Revenge on the cards? Possibly. The Blades, in truth, have had a few slip-ups at home but are far better on the road.
Chris Wilder's side have lost just two of 13 away games and they were against Liverpool and Man City, so quite forgivable.
They travel to St James' Park, where Newcastle have failed to win eight of 14 and Steve Bruce's side struggle for goals.
Wilder's men are well drilled and should be raring to go after a week's rest following another hard-earned win over Norwich, which left them just two points adrift of Man United in fifth.
With Newcastle's shortage in front of goal in mind, and Sheff United's away performances, there are some nice prices in the visitors' favour, with the -1 handicap catching the eye at 4/1.
Score prediction: Newcastle 0-2 Sheff United (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Best bet: Sheffield United -1 at 4/1
Opta stats
- Newcastle are the joint-lowest home scorers in the Premier League this season (12), and are yet to score more than twice in any of their 14 league games at St James’ Park this season.
- Only Liverpool (9) have conceded fewer away goals than Sheffield United in the Premier League this season (12), with the Blades the only side yet to concede more than twice in a game on the road this term.
- Sheffield United’s only two away defeats this season have been against the current top two sides, losing 0-2 against both Man City and Liverpool in the space of four days in December/January.
- Though he hasn’t scored in six appearances since December, Jonjo Shelvey has scored more than twice as many Premier League goals as any other Newcastle player this season (5), with his five goals coming from just 10 shots on target.
- Among the 41 teams Newcastle manager Steve Bruce has faced at least 10 times in his managerial career, only against QPR (73.3%) does he have a better win ratio than against former side Sheffield United (72.7%), winning eight of his 11 games against them.
Norwich v Southampton
Southampton are not out of danger just yet, so a match against relegation rivals Norwich could be huge.
Ralph Hasenhuttl's side, who had Moussa Djenepo red-carded early on before going on to lose at home to Newcastle last week, go into the weekend seven points above the drop and six from that magic 40-point mark.
Although Norwich were given hope last time out at Carrow Road with a win over Leicester, the preference is to go with the visitors.
As mentioned, these matches can be cagey but Southampton should have a good reaction after last week's slip-up and they are generally better away from St Mary's.
In fact, they are sixth in the away table having won six and drawn two of 14. Norwich will make it tough by taking the game to them, but the Saints have the quality to take the three points back to the south coast - a couple of goals could be needed though.
Score prediction: Norwich 1-2 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Best bet: Southampton to score 2+ goals at 21/20
Opta stats
- Norwich have lost just one of their seven home Premier League games against Southampton (W4 D2 L1), a 5-4 defeat in April 1994.
- Southampton are looking to complete a top-flight league double over Norwich for the first time, with this the 22nd season they’ve met in England’s top division.
- The last five Premier League meetings between Norwich and Southampton have been won by the home side, a run stretching back to August 2013.
- Norwich have won two of their last three Premier League home games (L1), as many as they had in their first 11 at Carrow Road this season. However, the Canaries are looking to secure back-to-back home wins in the same season in the competition for the first time since January 2016 – the second game of which was against Southampton.
- Following a five-game unbeaten run in the Premier League, Southampton have lost five of their last seven in the competition (W2). Away from home, Southampton have lost their last two Premier League games, last losing more consecutively in December 2018 (4).
- Southampton have won each of their last six Premier League games against promoted sides, as many as they had in their previous 23 such games in the competition (W6 D7 L10). It’s Saints’ longest ever winning run against such sides in the competition.
- Norwich have the lowest shot conversion rate of any side in the Premier League this season, with the Canaries converting just 25 of their 335 efforts so far (7.5%).
- Only the current top four clubs have won more away Premier League games than Southampton this season (6). Indeed, only in 2013-14, 2014-15 and 2015-16 (7) have Southampton more away games in a Premier League campaign.
- Norwich’s Emiliano Buendía has provided seven assists in the Premier League this season, the most of any player yet to score themselves in the competition this season.
- Southampton forward Danny Ings has scored just one goal in his last seven Premier League games, failing to find the net in each of his last three. He had scored 10 goals in 11 Premier League games prior to this run.
Aston Villa v Chelsea
- 1730 GMT kick-off on Sky Sports Premier League
Chelsea have hit form again and they need to keep it up in order to maintain their distance from the chasing pack.
Key to their good run has been Marcos Alonso's return to the team, with the Spaniard scoring three in his last three Premier League appearances.
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The left-sider loves to get forward at every opportunity, be it on the overlap, providing an outlet, or making late runs at the far post.
With confidence high and Chelsea playing well, there is temptation to go with Alonso in the shots market. He is 3/1 to register two efforts on target and that is well worth considering.
Villa will undoubtedly be defending for large periods of the clash and Alonso has been regularly trying his luck. He had one in his last game against Everton, but before that SEVEN against Bournemouth, three v Tottenham and, in his last appearance before that, two - against Spurs again in December.
He could look to test compatriot Pepe Reina on a number of occasions and, if Chelsea dominate, then two efforts on target from Alonso is not a big ask - with even some appeal in backing him anytime at 5/1 seeing he already has four goals this term.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 1-3 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Best bet: Marcos Alonso 2+ shots on target at 3/1
Opta stats
- Aston Villa have lost nine of their last 10 Premier League games against Chelsea, winning the other at Villa Park in March 2014.
- Chelsea have won their last five league games against Aston Villa, their best winning run against the Villans.
- Since beating Chelsea 1-0 in March 2014, Aston Villa are winless in 20 Premier League games against sides starting the day in the top four (D4 L16), losing each of their last nine by an aggregate score of 4-31.
- Aston Villa have lost their last four Premier League games, last losing more consecutively between February-April 2016 en route to being relegated (11).
- After a run of eight straight wins, Chelsea lost their last Premier League game against a side in the relegation zone, going down 1-3 at Everton in December. They’ve not lost consecutive such games since January 2011 (vs Birmingham and Wolves).
- Chelsea haven’t won any of their four away Premier League games in 2020 (D3 L1), having won seven of their previous nine on the road (L2). They last had a longer winless run away from home between September-December 2015 (7 games).
- Aston Villa have scored in each of their last 10 Premier League home games; only Liverpool (30) are on a longer such current run in the competition.
- Chelsea striker Olivier Giroud has scored in his last six games against Aston Villa in all competitions, netting eight goals; all appearances came while he was at Arsenal between 2013 and 2016.
- Aston Villa keeper Pepe Reina has kept a clean sheet in 40% of his Premier League appearances against Chelsea (6/15). Of the 16 keepers to have faced the Blues at least 15 times in the competition, only Nigel Martyn has a better ratio against them (42% - 8/19).
- Willian has scored in each of his last two games in all competitions for Chelsea, netting as many goals as he’d scored in his previous 23 for the Blues (2).
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Odds correct as of 1330 GMT on 12/03/20
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