Mark your card for Saturday's Premier League games with George Pitts providing a best bet and score prediction for each clash.
Recommended bets
0.5pt Giovani Lo Celso to score anytime in Chelsea v Tottenham at 7/1
0.5pt Newcastle to win by one goal at Crystal Palace 11/2
0.5pt Jack Grealish to score anytime at 7/2
0.5pt Ricardo Pereira 1+ shots on target at 4/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
*Click link to add selections to betslip*
Leicester City v Manchester City
- 1730 GMT kick-off on Sky Sports Premier League
The evening game sees third host second and hopefully it proves to be a cracker.
Leicester have set up more conservatively against the Premier League big boys, showing them respect and sacrificing the style of football that has seen them play so well this term.
Man City returned from the mid-season break with a routine victory over West Ham, but they will have to be on their game at a rocking King Power.
The preference in the betting here is to look at the shots market. As much as the visitors may dominate possession, Leicester should still get some opportunities and the eye-catching price is on Ricardo Perreira.
The Portuguese right-back likes to get forward at every opportunity, scoring three goals for the Foxes in the Premier League this term.
He has had an impressive seven shots in his last four appearances - four of them coming in one home game against West Ham - and with the positions he gets in and late runs he makes at the far post, 4/1 for him to register one effort on target looks too good to turn down.
Score prediction: Leicester 1-2 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Best bet: Ricardo Pereira 1+ shots on target at 4/1
Opta facts
- Man City have lost two of their last three away Premier League games against Leicester (W1) having lost none of their previous five away games there in the Premier League (W3 D2).
- Leicester have drawn back-to-back Premier League games, having drawn just one of their previous 22 in the competition (W15 L6).
- In Brendan Rodgers’ first 14 home league games in charge of Leicester, the Foxes conceded just seven goals and never more than once in a match. In their last four at the King Power Stadium, they’ve shipped nine goals, and more than once on three occasions.
- Manchester City have lost four of their 13 away Premier League games this season (W8 D1), as many as they had on the road in their previous two campaigns combined (W30 D4 L4). The Citizens haven’t failed to score in consecutive away league games since January 2017.
- Leicester’s Brendan Rodgers has never beaten Man City manager Pep Guardiola in any of his previous four meetings (D2 L2) – he’s only faced José Mourinho more often without winning in his managerial career (six games).
- This is Leicester manager Brendan Rodgers’ 300th top-flight match as a manager (197 Premier League, 103 Scottish Premiership) – Rodgers has never lost a home Premier League game against Manchester City (W3 D1).
- Leicester’s Jamie Vardy hasn’t scored in any of his last six Premier League games – he’d only failed to score in six of his first 18 appearances in the competition this season.
Burnley v AFC Bournemouth
This could easily have been a relegation six-pointer had Burnley not turned into one of the league's form teams, collecting 10 points from a possible 12.
Bournemouth, meanwhile, have also moved out of the bottom three after back-to-back home victories, but they are not out of danger yet with just two points separating them and West Ham in 18th.
These types of games can still be extremely cagey. Burnley do not like to give much away while Bournemouth will start conservatively, so the feeling is it could be a low scorer.
Both sides have been drawing at the interval, in 11 and 10 of their 26 games respectively this season. With the expected start in mind, backing a goalless first half gets you a tempting 17/10 price.
They are both unpredictable this term, Burnley losing six of their 13 games at Turf Moor, so there are preferences elsewhere in the betting for us.
Score prediction: Burnley 1-0 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds:11/1)
Best bet: Under 0.5 first-half goals at 17/10
Opta facts
- Burnley have won five of their seven Premier League games against Bournemouth (L2), winning each of the last three in a row. The Clarets’ best win ratio in top-flight history against an opponent (min. 5 games) is against the Cherries (71%).
- Bournemouth’s only away league win in 13 attempts at Turf Moor against Burnley came on the final day of the 2017-18 season (D6 L6).
- Burnley have won three of their last four Premier League games, picking up 10 points in total (W3 D1 L0). The Clarets had won just two of their previous nine in the competition, losing the other seven in that run.
- Bournemouth have lost seven of their last eight away league games, winning the other against Chelsea. The Cherries had won six points from their first three away games this season (W2 L1), picking up just four points from their subsequent 10 on the road (W1 D1 L8).
- Burnley have played 108 home games in the Premier League without ever being shown a red card, the most of any side in the competition. Indeed, only Liverpool (131 between 1992-1999) have ever had a longer run of home games without having a sending off in Premier League history.
Crystal Palace v Newcastle
Newcastle may have shipped four goals in the capital last week, but Steve Bruce's side are 15/4 to win this one and they have many more reasons to be hopeful.
Crystal Palace are without a win in their last eight fixtures in all competitions, so maybe the mid-season break came at the right time, but we have seen how teams are returning slightly sluggish and Newcastle can look to capitalise after blowing off the cobwebs at Arsenal (result aside) last week.
The Magpies have won just three and drawn two on the road but Palace have shown vulnerabilities at Selhurst Park this term and there are question marks over where goals will come from in this team.
Newcastle are quite similar in the attacking third but they are usually tough to break down and decent from set pieces with 12 of 24 goals coming via this method. With this in mind, the game could be close and with Newcastle fancied to edge it, backing the visitors to win by one goal gets you an appealing 11/2 price.
With the Eagles struggling, then Newcastle, with just one loss in their last nine (albeit six draws), can look to spring a surprise in London.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 0-1 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Best bet: Newcastle to win by one goal at 11/2
Opta facts
- Crystal Palace have registered just three wins in 17 Premier League games against Newcastle United (D5 L9), failing to score in nine of those games.
- Newcastle have won two away Premier League games in London this season, beating Spurs and West Ham – they last won three in a season back in 2013-14, with their wins that season coming against Spurs, West Ham and Crystal Palace.
- Crystal Palace are the only side who haven’t scored more than twice in a Premier League match this season. There have been seven occasions of a side going all season without scoring more than twice in a game in the competition, with all of those sides being relegated.
- Crystal Palace are without a clean sheet in 10 Premier League games, the longest current run in the competition. The Eagles are also on the current longest run without a win in the competition, failing to secure victory in their last seven (D4 L3).
- Crystal Palace striker Christian Benteke netted his first goal in 18 Premier League appearances last time out against Everton – the Belgian hasn’t scored in consecutive league games since April 2017.
- Despite playing just 15 of Newcastle’s 26 Premier League games this season, Jonjo Shelvey has scored more goals (5) and created more chances (27) than any other player at the club this season.
Sheffield United v Brighton
For all of the credit Brighton have been getting under Graham Potter, they are just three points above the bottom three and are on a seven-game winless run in all competitions (just one victory in 12).
They will have to come out fighting and can at least get on the score sheet at Bramall Lane, where Sheffield United have shown more vulnerabilities than on the road.
BTTS is appealing at a shade over evens - both teams have scored in eight of Brighton's 13 away games and Sheffield United may well get caught out after the mid-season break.
Score prediction: Sheff United 1-1 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Best bet: BTTS at 26/25
Opta facts
- This will be first time Sheffield United will host Brighton for a top-flight match – they last met at Bramall Lane back in January 2006 in a Championship match, with the Blades winning 3-1.
- Only Wolves (18) have won more points from losing positions in the Premier League this season than Sheffield United (13). Meanwhile, Brighton have lost 14 points from winning positions so far this term, more than they had in either of their previous campaigns in the competition (13 in both 2017-18 and 2018-19).
- Sheffield United have made just 30 changes to their starting XI in the Premier League this season, fewer than any other side in the competition. The Blades are also the only side to have started all of their Premier League games with the same formation this term (3-5-2).
- Despite being Brighton’s top Premier League scorer this season with seven goals, Neal Maupay hasn’t scored for the Seagulls since December, playing 631 minutes and attempting 21 shots in the competition since then.
Southampton v Aston Villa
⭐️Jack Grealish v Tottenham:
— Sporting Life Football (@SportingLifeFC) February 16, 2020
🎯 Total shots - 3
👟 Touches - 68
➡️ Passes - 37
🔑 Key passes - 5
🏃♂️ Dribbles - 4
🤕 Times fouled - 6
💪 Ground duels - 12
⛳️ Corners taken - 7
Regardless of result, a classy display 🔥 #AVLTOT #AVFC pic.twitter.com/JLXQgUyoiC
If he plays like he did against Tottenham, Jack Grealish could help Aston Villa leave St Mary's with at least a point on Saturday afternoon.
As the stats in our tweet (above) note, Grealish was the star as the Villans threw away a lead and lost late on. Grealish will be vital for Villa between now and the end of the season - the forward is coming into his own and looks like Villa's most menacing threat.
Ralph Hasenhuttl's side continue to blow hot and cold, losing last weekend to Burnley and they have the league's worst home record - with just three wins and two draws from 13. Similarly, Villa have the league's second worst away record and with both sides still desperate for points it could be a tight affair.
But, with this vulnerability at St Mary's in mind, Villa can at least get on the score sheet and Grealish can be the man to make the difference, with an eye-catching anytime price of 7/2 (both Danny Ings and Grealish to score is (11/2).
He has nine goals in 28 appearances (all comps) and averages over two shots per game, gets kicked and kicked but he does not give up and Southampton face a tough task to keep him quiet here.
Score prediction: Southampton 1-1 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds:11/1)
Best bet: Jack Grealish to score anytime at 7/2
Opta facts
- Southampton have won fewer points at home than any other Premier League side this season (11). It’s their lowest points tally after 13 top-flight home games since 1991-92 (10).
- Southampton have conceded 30 goals in their 13 home league games this season, the most by a top-flight side after as many games since Ipswich in 1962-63 (31).
- Excluding own goals, Aston Villa’s last two strikes in the Premier League have been headers (Samatta vs Bournemouth, Engels vs Spurs) – none of the previous 31 goals scored by their players this season were headed.
- No side has kept fewer Premier League clean sheets than Aston Villa this season (4), while the Villans remain the only side yet to record a shutout away from home in the competition this season.
- Southampton striker Shane Long has been directly involved in 10 goals in his last seven Premier League starts against Aston Villa (6 goals, 4 assists), scoring twice and assisting twice in his only previous start against them at St. Mary’s in May 2015.
- Southampton’s Danny Ings has netted 15 Premier League goals this season; only Matt Le Tissier (25 in 1993-94 and 19 in 1994-95) and James Beattie (23 in 2002-03) have ever scored more in a single campaign in the competition for Saints.
- Aston Villa’s Jack Grealish has created 68 chances for his teammates in the Premier League this season, more than any other English player in the competition.
Chelsea v Tottenham
How good is Giovani Lo Celso? Tottenham may have lost their last 16 first-leg clash with RB Leipzig in the Champions League on Wednesday, but the Argentinian's performance was certainly a positive.
Now Christian Eriksen's departure has paved way for Spurs' summer signing to start more regularly and he looks like a real bargain at £27.2m - especially after selling Eriksen to Inter for £16.9m.
Spurs fans have plenty of reasons to be optimistic. He makes positive runs, is not afraid to battle and had three shots in total against Leipzig, two of them on target and one striking the post.
The 23-year-old is yet to score in the Premier League, but he is showing plenty of promise. In his substitute outing at Aston Villa on Sunday he had two shots and his performance in midweek will surely have earned him a spot in the XI to face London rivals Chelsea at the Bridge.
Frank Lampard's side have lost at home five times this season, drawing three and conceding 14 in total out of 13 games, and Spurs can make the most of their vulnerability in front of their own fans with Lo Celso key.
The club may miss Harry Kane and now Heung-min Son, but that means Lo Celso may have an even bigger role to play. With this in mind, the 7/1 to score anytime price looks far too good to pass up here. Even for a small play.
The 6/5 price for him to get one effort on target or 11/10 for 2+ shots is appealing, but his anytime odds looks excellent value in what should hopefully be a thriller.
Score prediction: Chelsea 2-2 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Best bet: Giovani Lo Celso to score anytime at 7/1
Opta facts
- The away side has won three of the last five Premier League meetings between Chelsea and Spurs (L2), with that occurring just once in the previous 23 games (W1 D9 L13).
- Chelsea have lost seven home games in all competitions this season – they last lost more at Stamford Bridge in a single campaign back in 1985-86 (8).
- Tottenham have won 499 top-flight away games, and could become the seventh team to reach 500 wins on the road after Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester United, Everton, Aston Villa and Chelsea.
- In the Premier League, Spurs manager José Mourinho has won 79 games at Stamford Bridge, all during his two spells as Chelsea manager – however, as an away venue he is yet to win there in three attempts (D1 L2), only managing more often at St James’ Park (7) without winning away from home.
- Chelsea boss Frank Lampard – who made 140 Premier League appearances under José Mourinho – beat him in their first league managerial meeting back in December 2019. Only one manager has ever won his first two league games against Mourinho – Boavista’s Jaime Pacheco in September 2001.
- Only Arsène Wenger (106) and Harry Redknapp (39) have won more Premier League London derbies as managers than Tottenham’s José Mourinho (37). Mourinho has the best win ratio of any manager to have managed in 20 or more (37 wins in 56 games, 66%).
Odds correct as of 1700 GMT on 20/02/20
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