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Premier League tips: Betting previews, Super 6 predictions & best bets for Saturday's action including Southampton at home to Watford
Mark your card for Saturday's Premier League games with George Pitts and Paul Higham providing their best bets and score predictions for each clash.
Recommended bets
2pts BTTS in Liverpool v Brighton at 23/20
1pt Tottenham to beat Bournemouth & both teams to score at 7/4
0.5pt Allan Saint-Maximin to score anytime in Newcastle v Man City at 15/2
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Southampton v Watford
- 1730 GMT kick-off on Sky Sports Premier League
It may not be everyone's game of the week, but for these two teams, and these two managers, it's another week of must-win contests as they both continue to be in the seemingly never-ending talk of managers in the hot seat.
Ralph Hasenhuttl's Saints should've won at Arsenal, but instead remain winless in eight, while with Watford winning just once all season there's a definite 'two bald guys fighting over a comb' feel about it when the bottom two in the league go head-to-head.
These two usually draw when they play, and with two bad teams meeting that's not usually a bad way to go, but watching Saints at Arsenal you couldn't help but be impressed with their attacking pace and endeavour, which was in sharp contrast to Watford's loss against Burnley.
Saints have got to win at home some time right? And this looks like the perfect opportunity against fellow strugglers, who after all have only won once all season. It's a golden opportunity for the hosts to get off the mark at St Mary's and one they have to take.
Prediction: Southampton 2-1 Watford (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Best bet: Southampton to beat Watford at 23/20
Key stats
- Southampton are winless in their last three home Premier League meetings with Watford (D2 L1) – they’d only failed to win two of their first eight top-flight home matches against the Hornets (W6 D0 L2).
- The last three Premier League meetings with Southampton and Watford have finished level, with Watford coming from behind to draw each time.
- Just one of Southampton’s nine Premier League points this season has been won in home games (11%). Saints could become the first side in English top-flight history to fail to win any of their opening seven home league games in consecutive campaigns.
- In English top-flight history, only Blackpool in 1930-31 (22) have conceded more goals in their opening six home league games than the 21 Southampton have shipped at St Mary’s so far this term.
- This is already the fourth meeting between the two bottom placed sides in the Premier League this season, with the last campaign to see more such games coming in 2004-05 (5). Watford will have been the bottom side in all four of these matches.
Newcastle v Manchester City (George Pitts)
- 1230 GMT kick-off on BT Sport
Manchester City's defeat at Newcastle last season prompted a much-needed kick up the backside which saw them win 14 games on the bounce to pip Liverpool to the title.
Pep Guardiola's side again travel to Tyneside trailing the Reds in the standings and bounced back from defeat to get past Chelsea last week, but it was not exactly convincing.
They lacked coherence at the back and even with a win, they could well concede and it is worth looking for the threats in Steve Bruce's side.
Seven of their last nine Premier League goals have come from defenders and they need someone to step up in the final third. The main candidate that looks capable of contributing is summer signing Allan Saint-Maximin.
The 22-year-old is yet to open his account since joining from Nice in a reported £16.5m deal. The winger looks lively and appears to be a starter in Bruce's side now. He has had 10 shots in his last four Premier League appearances, has great, fast feet and an impressive turn of pace.
Against a Man City defence that has failed to keep a clean sheet in their last six in all competitions, and with Newcastle improving at St James' Park by going five unbeaten, Saint-Maximin looks great value to get on the score sheet anytime at 15/2.
There was a temptation to back Riyad Mahrez to bag again after proving a threat against Chelsea by coming in off the right, or Man City to continue the trend of conceding first (see stats below) at 9/2, but a small play on Newcastle's French winger is the preference.
Prediction: Newcastle 1-2 Man City (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Best bet: Allan Saint-Maximin to score anytime at 15/2 (general)
Key stats
- Newcastle are looking to secure back-to-back Premier League victories over Man City for the first time since November 2003, having won this exact fixture 2-1 back in January.
- Manchester City have found the net in each of their last 21 Premier League games against Newcastle (54 goals in total), winning 18 (D2 L1). Only against Fulham (22) have they had a longer scoring streak in the competition.
- Newcastle are unbeaten in five home league games since defeat against Arsenal on the opening weekend (W2 D3). Only Leicester (3) have conceded fewer home goals in the Premier League this season than the Magpies (4).
- Manchester City have scored at least once in each of their last 17 Premier League away games, and are one of just two sides to have netted in 100% of their away league games this season, along with Liverpool.
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Burnley v Crystal Palace (George Pitts)
Chris Wood is a man in form. The New Zealander has six Premier League goals to his name this season - all coming in his last six appearances.
That run will, of course, come to an end sooner rather than later. But he faces a Palace side that has conceded 11 on the road this season and the 21/10 price on him looks great value for a player in his form and in front of his own fans.
Sean Dyche's side have scored three goals from set pieces at Turf Moor already this season and Wood's aerial and physical presence in the box makes him a threat. He links up well with Ashley Barnes and averages just over two shots per game.
Both sides are flying and have started the season well and a point each could be a fair result, but with the wind in the Clarets' sails and Wood in fine form, the hosts can just edge Palace.
Super 6 prediction: Burnley 2-0 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: Price Boosted to 10/1)
Best bet: Chris Wood to score anytime at 21/10
Key stats
- After a run of nine games without a goal, Burnley’s Chris Wood has scored six goals in his last six Premier League games. He’s scored in each of his last three league games, last scoring in four in a row with Leeds in the Championship in January 2017.
- Burnley have won their last two Premier League games, both by a 3-0 scoreline. In their league history, they last won three consecutive games by 3+ goals back in December 1926.
- Only Leicester (6) have kept more Premier League clean sheets than Burnley this season (5), while only Watford (7) have failed to score in more games than Crystal Palace (6).
- Only Watford (8) have scored fewer Premier League goals than Crystal Palace this season (11), though the Eagles have scored more away from home (6) than they have at home (5).
Chelsea v West Ham (George Pitts)
Frank Lampard's side were incredibly unfortunate not to get anything from Man City away, in a game that was stretched, end-to-end and entertaining.
That's what you get from Chelsea - entertainment. Their Champions League game at Valencia in midweek reaffirmed that. Their matches have been eventful under their new boss this term, with goals a given.
Even potentially being without Tammy Abraham they should cause problems for West Ham and pile further pressure on Manuel Pellegrini. The Chilean will be hoping his side perform more like they did in the second half against Tottenham rather than the first.
The Blues have started well this term - scoring 15 goals in the first 45 minutes.
Nine of those have come in the opening half hour while West Ham have conceded seven and scored just one in this time. With the expectation of Chelsea staying confident despite defeat last time out, they can return to winning ways by starting in style at the Bridge.
Given West Ham's woes, the 13/10 price on Chelsea to be leading after 30 minutes looks a good shot here.
Super 6 prediction: Chelsea 3-1 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Best bet: Chelsea to be leading after 30 minutes at 13/10
Key stats
- Having failed to win any of their first three home league games this season (D2 L1), Chelsea have won each of their last three at Stamford Bridge without conceding. They last won four in a row while keeping a clean sheet each time back in January 2015 (a run of five in which the fourth game was against West Ham).
- West Ham are winless in their last seven Premier League games (D2 L5), losing each of the last three while conceding three goals each time. Twice before in the competition have West Ham lost four in a row while conceding 3+ goals each time (September 2010 and September 2016), and they could become the first team to suffer this on three separate occasions.
- Chelsea have opened the scoring in more different Premier League games than any other side this season (11). Five of those 11 goals have been netted by striker Tammy Abraham, more than any other player in the division.
- In all competitions this season, West Ham have conceded a goal on average every 41 minutes with Roberto Jiménez in goal (19 in 776 mins) compared to one every 72 minutes with Lukasz Fabianski between the posts (8 in 574 mins).
Liverpool v Brighton (George Pitts)
It can often be difficult to find value in a game like this when the dominant league leaders are at home, but the price on both teams to score does catch the eye.
Brighton have come on leaps and bounds this year, showing a clear development under Graham Potter. The Seagulls' board are so pleased with him, that they have already extended his contract this week to ward off potential suitors and keep him at the Amex until 2025.
They have struggled on the road with just one win in six, but they have already had to travel to Man City, Chelsea and Man United. After this weekend, they then travel to Arsenal. Harsh.
But they do pose a threat in the final third and, for all Liverpool's effective performances this term, they have conceded more often with both teams scoring in 11 of their 13 games.
They still have work to do at the back and the odds-against price looks a worthy shout here.
Super 6 prediction: Liverpool 3-1 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Best bet: BTTS at 23/20
Key stats
- Liverpool are unbeaten in 30 Premier League games (W25 D5). If they avoid defeat here it would see them equal their all-time longest unbeaten run in top-flight history, when they went 31 games without defeat between May 1987-March 1988.
- Liverpool forward Sadio Mané has scored 17 goals in his last 16 Premier League games at Anfield. Indeed, since the start of last season the Senegalese has scored more home goals than any other player in the Premier League (22).
- Jürgen Klopp’s last home league defeat as Liverpool manager came against Sam Allardyce’s Crystal Palace in April 2017. Since then, the German is unbeaten in his last 26 Premier League meetings with English managers (W22 D4), winning the last 16 in a row.
- There are three examples of a player creating 10+ chances for a specific teammate in the Premier League this season – two of these are Liverpool’s Trent Alexander-Arnold (13 for Roberto Firmino, 10 for Sadio Mané). The other is Kevin de Bruyne for Sergio Agüero (11).
Tottenham v Bournemouth
The Jose Mourinho era has been surprisingly entertaining so far with 11 goals in his two games in charge - he won't want that to continue! Defensive problems will take a while to sort out, and while he brings in that solidity you can still expect goals at both ends during Spurs games.
And that's exactly what we should see on Saturday against a decent Bournemouth side who are more than capable of troubling this Spurs defence but who usually find Spurs too strong.
The Cherries are yet to find the back of the net in a Tottenham away game, but now's the time to change that run and the way Spurs have been defending of late they'll get enough chances to break that duck.
It looks like a Spurs win and both teams to score at first glance and there aren't enough reasons to put you off going that way in the betting.
Super 6 prediction: Spurs 2-1 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Best bet: Tottenham to beat Bournemouth & both teams to score at 7/4
Key stats
- Tottenham have won all four of their Premier League home games against Bournemouth by an aggregate score of 13-0.
- Bournemouth have won just one of their eight Premier League meetings with Spurs (D1 L6), though it did come in their last such game in May thanks to Nathan Ake’s 90th minute winner.
- Following their victory against West Ham last time out, Tottenham are looking to secure back-to-back Premier League wins for the first time this season, last doing so in April this year.
- Tottenham have kept fewer clean sheets than any other Premier League side this season (1), with that shutout coming against Crystal Palace in September. The last time they had kept just one clean sheet in their opening 13 Premier League games was in 2012-13 under Andre Villas-Boas.
Odds correct as of 0934 GMT on 29/11/19
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