Mark your card for Saturday's Premier League games with George Pitts and Paul Higham providing their best bets and score predictions for each clash.
Recommended bets
2pts Chelsea to win and over 2.5 goals in the match 11/8
1pt Man United to beat Bournemouth by one goal 13/4
1pt Mesut Ozil to score anytime at 7/2
0.5pts John McGinn to score anytime at 21/4
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Watford v Chelsea (Paul Higham)
- 1730 BST kick-off on Sky Sports Premier League
Chelsea's seven-game winning run ended against Manchester United, but what better way to get back on track than a trip to winless Watford, who are actually unbeaten at home in their last five but have hardly impressed in back-to-back stalemates at Vicarage Road.
In 0-0 draws against both Sheffield United and Bournemouth Watford had just around 40 percent possession, and that just simply won't do against this Chelsea side, who've been excellent on the road this season with six straight wins in all competitions since an opening day defeat at Old Trafford.
All five of Chelsea's away games have been filled with goals, with at least four in every single one of them, and they're the top scorers in the league away from home - when you contrast that with Watford's three meagre goals at home then you realise why the Hornets are in trouble.
True, Chelsea will give you a chance, and Watford's inevitable lack of possession may make it less like an away game and limit the space Frank Lampard's forwards like to run in to - but there's an obvious talent and confidence deficit between these two and that should be reflected in the scoreline.
Prediction: Watford 1-3 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Best bet: Chelsea to win and over 2.5 goals in the match 11/8
Key stats
- Watford have won just one of their last 11 Premier League meetings with Chelsea (D2 L8), winning 4-1 at Vicarage Road in February 2018.
- Watford are winless in their 10 Premier League games this season (D5 L5), scoring fewer goals than any other side (5). They’ve never failed to win any of their opening 11 games to any league campaign before, while the last side to do so in the Premier League were QPR in 2012-13.
- Chelsea have won their last four away Premier League games, netting at least three goals each time. In top-flight history, only Everton have won five consecutive away games while netting 3+ goals each time, doing so back in December 1927 en route to winning the league title.
- Chelsea have won 16 of their last 20 Premier League games against sides starting the day bottom of the table (L4), with their last such defeat coming at Crystal Palace in October 2017 – it was the Eagles’ first victory that campaign.
AFC Bournemouth v Manchester United (George Pitts)
- 1230 BST kick-off on BT Sport
Bournemouth are on a five-game winless run ahead of the visit of Man United and Eddie Howe will be keen to keep it tight at the Vitality.
We have grown to know the Cherries in recent seasons for being involved in high-scoring games, especially on home soil, but they have conceded just once in their last three games and Man United have to dig in if they are to make it four successive wins in all competitions.
The Red Devils have won their last four meetings with Bournemouth and they had a scare in this fixture last season after Callum Wilson's early goal, going on to win 2-1 thanks to Marcus Rashford's 90th-minute winner.
Given their recent run of back-to-back clean sheets and the close defeat at Arsenal, the feeling is that the hosts will make it tough while narrowly losing to a United side that is gathering pace and confidence from this mini run.
The scoring markets were tempting, with Callum Wilson a nice 2/1 anytime price, but the preference is on the visitors to secure a narrow victory - by one goal at around 3/1 general price.
Prediction: Bournemouth 1-2 Man United (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Best bet: Man United to win by one goal 13/4
Key stats
- Bournemouth have failed to score in their last three Premier League games (D2 L1) – they last went four without a goal in league competition back in March 2012.
- Bournemouth have won just two of their last 11 home Premier League games (D5 L4), with three of their five at the Vitality Stadium this season ending level (W1 L1).
- Man Utd’s Marcus Rashford scored home and away against Bournemouth in the Premier League last season, including netting a 90th minute winner in this exact fixture.
- After a run of scoring with five consecutive shots in the Premier League, Bournemouth’s Callum Wilson has failed to score with any of his last eight attempts. However, of the 95 players to have had 10+ shots in the Premier League this season, Wilson has hit the highest % of them on target (69% - 11/16).
Arsenal v Wolves (George Pitts)
Unai Emery may have seen his side go out of the Carabao Cup on Wednesday (despite scoring five goals), but he had plenty of positives to take from the game.
Our anytime scorer tip Gabriel Martinelli bagged a brace, Joe Willock netted a screamer, the fact they scored five in one game alone and, more importantly, Mesut Ozil made an impact on his return to the team.
The Spaniard has been reluctant to use Ozil in the Premier League this season, but the German playmaker has certainly made it tough not to select him for the visit of Wolves.
The 31-year-old set up Ainsley Maitland-Niles with one of the best assists you will see all season (in the tweet, below), had a 94 per cent pass succession rate in the 65 minutes he played, completed two key passes overall and looked just like the player we know is capable of being key for Arsenal.
In the time Ozil was on the pitch, Arsenal had 11 shots in total and scored four goals. When he was off, although their backs were against the wall, they had just two.
Gunners fans want to see him start and he would arguably invigorate the Emirates against a Wolves side who know how to win away at the big six - just ask Man City.
Emery said using Ozil was 'a possibility' and taking him off was pre-planned, with Saturday possibly in mind. If - and that's a big if - Ozil starts, he looks a good price to get on the score sheet at around 7/2.
Prediction: Arsenal 2-2 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Best bet: Mesut Ozil to score anytime at 7/2
Key stats
- Wolves’ 3-1 win against Arsenal in April ended a run of 16 league games without victory against the Gunners – they last won consecutive top-flight games against them in September 1979 (a run of three).
- Arsenal haven’t lost at home at 3pm on a Saturday since the opening day of the 2013-14 season (1-3 vs Aston Villa), winning 20 and drawing two since then.
- Wolves have scored in each of their last nine Premier League games, with only Liverpool (19) on a longer current run in the competition. Wolves have never scored in 10 consecutive Premier League games before.
- Wolves have scored a league-high 85% of their Premier League goals in the second half of games this season (11/13). Indeed, in a league table based purely on second half results, Wolves would be third.
😍 This touch from Ozil!
— Sporting Life Football (@SportingLifeFC) October 30, 2019
🤔 Maybe he should play more often...#LIVARS #CarabaoCuppic.twitter.com/W2YvksYxVi
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Aston Villa v Liverpool (George Pitts)
Liverpool are so well fancied that it is worth looking at Villa-related prices in the betting.
Jurgen Klopp's side have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last six and the hosts' attacking options can at least trouble their defence. Jack Grealish, Wesley Moraes, Anwar El Ghazi and Conor Hourihane all have their threats, but the eye-catching price is on John McGinn.
The midfielder has three goals and an assist in 12 appearances for Villa this season and four goals in his last four appearances for Scotland, so he has shown a knack for getting in the right spaces and with well-timed runs.
Two of his club goals have come against Spurs and Arsenal, so he is well capable of scoring against the big teams, and he averages over three shots per game in the Premier League this season. He had two against Man City, six in their last home outing against Brighton and six on the away trip to Arsenal.
With this in mind, the general price of around 5/1 on McGinn to score anytime looks too good to pass up for a small play. He is a fan favourite at Villa Park and he would certainly love to score against the league leaders.
Prediction: Villa 1-3 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Best bet: John McGinn to score anytime at 21/4
Key stats
- Liverpool have won their last 13 Premier League games against promoted sides. Only Chelsea (27, 2002-2006), Manchester United (17, 2006-2009) and Tottenham (16, 2015-2018) have had longer such runs in the competition.
- Since losing against Sam Allardyce’s Crystal Palace in April 2017, Liverpool manager Jürgen Klopp is unbeaten in his last 24 Premier League meetings with English managers (W20 D4), winning each of the last 14 in a row.
- James Milner has been involved in four goals in his last four Premier League games against former side Aston Villa (2 goals, 2 assists), finding the net in both such games for Liverpool.
- All five of Mohamed Salah’s Premier League goals for Liverpool this season have come at Anfield – he’s not scored away from home in the competition since May at Newcastle.
Brighton v Norwich (Paul Higham)
It's been a long time since these two met in the top flight (1983) and it may not happen again for a while if Norwich don't pull their socks up having gone into free-fall after their win over Manchester City - taking just a point in five games since.
Home wins against Everton and Spurs (when they were excellent) has turned things around for Brighton and their home form really is the key to everything - with about 70 percent of their Premier League wins coming at the Amex.
One clean sheet in 17 tells you where the problem lies for Norwich, and their flimsy backline does not inspire any confidence that they can keep out the Seagulls. The Canaries just don't give themselves a chance to build in games - conceding 15 first half goals (Brighton have conceded 14 overall) and having to always play from behind is a major problem in this league.
Norwich have this entertainers tag but if you look at their away record it shows just one goal on the road all season, and although Brighton look to have found their scoring touch of late, it may not continue against a team desperate to stop the rot somehow.
Prediction: Brighton 2-0 Norwich (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Best bet: Brighton and Under 3.5 Goals in match at 13/8
Key stats
- Brighton have won their last two home Premier League games, as many as they had in their previous 15 at the Amex Stadium (W2 D5 L8). They’ve only won three in a row at home in the competition once before (March 2018).
- Brighton have scored 3+ goals in three of their 10 Premier League matches this season, more than they did in the whole of 2018-19 (2).
- Norwich have only kept one clean sheet in their last 17 Premier League matches, though it was in their last such away game at Bournemouth in October (0-0). They haven’t kept consecutive clean sheets on the road in the top-flight since December 2013.
Manchester City v Southampton (George Pitts)
After last week's display against Leicester, plenty are expecting Manchester City to thrash Southampton, some even expecting double figures, but they might be disappointed.
Ralph Hasenhuttl's men claimed back some credibility in their Carabao Cup visit to the Etihad on Wednesday, losing 3-1, and while it is hard to see anything but a home win, the visitors may at least put up a fight.
Seven of their eight points this season have come on the road and that could bring an increased performance on Saturday as the Saints boss looks for a reaction from his men. There was a temptation to look at the Saints in the shots on target market - both as a team and on individual players - but the preference is to opt with the time of the first goal.
An old favourite with Man City at the Etihad is backing them to score early - and even though we expect Southampton to start well there is only so long they can hold out. They have conceded more goals in the 15 minutes leading up to the break (six) than any other period in the 90 minutes - and the game's first goal here can be backed at an appealing 4/1.
But due to the odds being so far in favour of City, the preference is to sit this one out and look at other fixtures for value.
Prediction: Man City 3-0 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Best bet: Time of first goal - 30-half-time at 4/1
Key stats
- Manchester City (32) are the highest scorers in the Premier League this season, while Southampton (25) have conceded the most in the competition so far, with the Citizens registering the biggest home win this season (8-0) and Saints suffering the biggest defeat (0-9).
- Just one of Manchester City’s last 40 Premier League games has finished in a draw (W33 D1 L6). Of the 104 managers to have taken charge of 50+ Premier League games, Pep Guardiola’s have seen the lowest ratio finish level (12.9% - 16/124).
- Raheem Sterling has been involved in eight goals in his last five home league games against Southampton for Man City and Liverpool combined (4 goals, 4 assists). Against no side has he been involved in more home goals in the Premier League (also 8 vs Bournemouth).
- Despite less than a third of his total shots being on target (9/30), Man City’s Sergio Agüero has netted eight goals from his nine shots on target in the Premier League this season.
- No player at a non ‘big six’ club has scored more Premier League goals against such sides since the start of last season than Southampton’s Danny Ings (6).
Sheffield United v Burnley (George Pitts)
Goals have dried up for Sheffield United in recent weeks, but they can fire in a couple on Saturday to secure back-to-back victories at Bramall Lane.
Chris Wilder's side have drawn two and won one (against Arsenal) in their last three, scoring just once each time, and they have not hit the back of the net twice or more in one game since their victory over Everton on September 21.
Burnley, meanwhile, are yet to win on the road in five attempts this season and these are the types of games the Blades should be winning if they are to secure Premier League survival.
The 5/4 on the hosts to score at least two goals looks like a good option, with the added insurance of no reliance on the result - just goals for the hosts.
Prediction: Sheff United 2-1 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Best bet: Sheff United to score 2+ goals at 5/4
Key stats
- Burnley have both scored and conceded in all five of their away league games this season, though they remain one of five sides yet to win on the road in the Premier League so far this term (D3 L2).
- Burnley are winless in their last seven away Premier League games, their longest such run since their first 17 on the road in 2016-17. The Clarets have also failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 12 away league games, since a goalless draw at Watford in January.
- This will be just Sheffield United’s 10th Premier League game when they’re starting in the top half of the table, with six of them now coming this season. They’ve failed to win any of the previous nine such matches (D3 L6).
- Sheffield United’s Lys Mousset has scored with three of his last four shots in the Premier League, having found the net with just three of his previous 39 in the competition.
West Ham v Newcastle (Paul Higham)
Quite how West Ham have gone four games without a win is anyone's guess, especially against opposition they'd fancy their chances against, so a home game against a Newcastle side with just two wins to their name is verging on the must-win for Manuel Pellegrini.
Fortunately for him, he has a better record against the Magpies than any other Premier League team, while the visitors perennially struggle in London and have lost their last three away from home. Goals are also an issue for Steve Bruce's men - with six being the second-lowest in the league and all six of those goals coming from different players emphasising their need for a regular scorer.
A look at the fixtures shows Newcastle have had some tough trips so far and have won at Spurs, and that coupled with West Ham's lame loss to Palace and draw with Sheffield United shows you anything is possible in this one due to their inconsistencies.
West Ham have been ahead at half time three times in five home games so far, but the way Newcastle play it could be another drab affair early on, so while they should be able to get it done, their recent wobbles have forced a bit more pragmatism when picking a half-time stalemate.
Prediction: West Ham 1-0 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Best bet: Draw at half-time at 13/10
Key stats
- Newcastle have lost three of their last four Premier League away games against West Ham (W1), failing to score in each defeat.
- Newcastle have lost their last three Premier League away games, last losing more consecutively on the road in the competition in April 2016 (nine in a row).
- Newcastle haven’t scored more than once in any of their last 10 Premier League games – they last had a longer such run between December 2007-March 2008 (12 games).
- No Newcastle player has scored more than once in the Premier League this season, with all six of those goals coming from different players. Only Watford have also had no players score more than once so far this season.
Odds correct as of 1700 BST on 31/10/19
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