Tom Carnduff takes a look at the two Premier League games at 3pm, with value to be had in games with little riding on them.
Recommended bets
1pt Robert Snodgrass to be shown a card in West Ham v Southampton at 16/5
1pt Michail Antonio to score anytime in West Ham v Southampton at 5/2
1pt Matt Doherty to score anytime in Wolves v Fulham at 24/5
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Fixtures:
- West Ham v Southampton
- Wolves v Fulham
West Ham v Southampton
The first of two 'dead rubbers' on Saturday sees Southampton travel to the London Stadium to take on West Ham.
A draw against Bournemouth last time out was enough to retain the Saints' Premier League status for another season. Given Ralph Hassenhuttl's leadership, I'd back them to push up the standings in his first full campaign in charge.
They'll be wanting to finish on a high though against a West Ham side who still have top-half on their minds. For that to happen, they have to win both of their games and hope Watford or Everton slip-up twice.
This could well be a game with goals given the fact that there is little pressure on either team. Southampton have seen plenty of action in front of goal too with their last five games seeing a total of 20 goals for both teams.
Combine that with the fact that West Ham's last three at home have brought a total of 13 goals and it's clear to see the potential. That means there's value in goalscorers, particularly Michail Antonio who has enjoyed a positive season.
The winger has had direct involvement in 12 goals across all competitions, including the only goal of the game in the Hammers' 1-0 win over London rivals Tottenham in their last game.
He leads the way for shots taken in this West Ham side which highlights his intent for goals. He also comes into this one in form with goals in consecutive games. Alongside all that, it's worth noting that he has four goals in the last five contests where he has played the full 90 minutes.
At a price of 5/2, Antonio is one to consider to continue his goalscoring run here. Southampton have conceded two goals in three of their last five of the road too, defensive weaknesses which the forward can expose.
Elsewhere, my eyebrows were raised by the fact that Stuart Attwell was appointed as referee for this one - that's despite a horrific display in Leeds' draw with Aston Villa last weekend, a game where he lost complete control.
He showed six yellows and one red card in that fiery contest. Since then, the red card has been rescinded and Patrick Bamford is facing a ban for simulation.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Robert Snodgrass pick up a card given his style of play. The midfielder has a total of ten yellows on his tally this season and a price of 16/5 is great value considering his track record.
Super 6 prediction: West Ham 2-2 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Best bets:
Opta facts
- West Ham are looking to do the Premier League double over Southampton for the first time since the 2000-01 campaign, following their 2-1 win at St Mary’s earlier this season.
- Southampton have lost three of their last four Premier League meetings with West Ham (W1), as many as they had in their previous 12 against them (W5 D4 L3).
- None of the last 15 Premier League meetings between West Ham and Southampton in London have been drawn, with West Ham winning 11 to Southampton’s four.
- West Ham have come from behind to win in seven different Premier League games against Southampton, more than they have versus any other side.
- West Ham have won just one of their last five Premier League games (D1 L3), though it did come last time out at Spurs. They’ve not won back-to-back league games since a run of four in December.
- Southampton have scored in each of their last nine Premier League games – they last found the net in 10 consecutive top-flight matches between September-December 2002 under Gordon Strachan (a run of 12).
- 24 of Southampton’s 36 Premier League games have seen both teams score this season – only Manchester United (25) have had this happen in more.
- A different West Ham player has scored a brace in each of their last three Premier League meetings with Southampton (Javier Hernandez, Marko Arnautovic and Felipe Anderson).
- West Ham’s Michail Antonio is looking to score in three consecutive Premier League matches for the first time since September 2016.
- Shane Long has scored in four of his last five Premier League games for Southampton. On three of those occasions he’s netted the opening goal of the game, but Saints haven’t gone on to win any of them (D2 L1).
Wolves v Fulham
Despite all the money they have spent on their squad, Fulham saw their relegation back to the Sky Bet Championship confirmed in March.
With the pressure off, they have been performing and picking up results. The Cottagers have won their last three games, all to nil, but it will do little to affect their final outcome.
It does boost Scott Parker's chances of receiving the job though with the former midfielder the favourite with Sky Bet to land the role on a permanent basis next season, and a result away at Wolves will only strengthen the possibility.
Wolves have European football on their mind though. A win here will make them firm favourites to secure a spot in the Europa League, that is if Watford fail to win the FA Cup as expected.
Wanderers will be eager to ensure that they don't let this opportunity go as they continue their rise up through English football. Fulham may be in form, but Wolves are the side with something to play for here.
When it comes to the markets in this one, I like the look of the general price of 24/5 on one of my favourite Premier League players in Matt Doherty to score anytime.
The Republic of Ireland international has enjoyed a storming season playing in the right wing-back role for his side. He's demonstrated defensive security while also posing a real threat going forward.
That's why he has had direct involvement in 17 goals across all competitions. He also recently netted in their convincing 3-1 home win over Arsenal.
Doherty sits fourth for shots taken in this Wolves side with strikers Raul Jiminez and Diogo Jota alongside midfielder Ruben Neves only able to boast better.
His style may suit this game and he could exploit Fulham's issues at the back that have played a huge part in their current position. They also have problems defending attacks down the wing and Doherty should see plenty of opportunities on the right.
In terms of the result, it should be a Wolves win and the Asian Handicap reflects that with it currently putting Wolves at -1. When it comes to the handicap market, it may be worth taking Wolves at the -1 mark to get extra value at 13/8.
Score prediction: Wolves 2-0 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Best bet: Matt Doherty to score anytime in Wolves v Fulham at 24/5
Opta facts
- Wolves have lost none of their last 14 home meetings with Fulham in all competitions (W10 D4), since a 0-4 loss in the second tier in April 1985.
- In the Premier League, Fulham have lost three of their four meetings with Wolves at Molineux (D1), conceding exactly twice in each defeat.
- Wolves have won 15 Premier League games this season, with the last promoted side to win more in a Premier League campaign being Reading in 2006-07 (16).
- Wolves are unbeaten in seven Premier League home games (W5 D2), since a 0-2 loss against Crystal Palace in their first match of 2019.
- Already relegated Fulham have won three consecutive Premier League games without conceding a single goal. They last won four top-flight games in a row in April 1966 (a run of five).
- Fulham have won as many points in their last three Premier League games (9) as they had in their previous 20 in the competition (W2 D3 L15).
- Fulham’s Ryan Sessegnon has scored in his last two league meetings with Wolves, though both of these games have been at Craven Cottage.
- Aleksandar Mitrovic has been involved in 36.3% of Fulham’s 432 total shots in the Premier League this season (127 shots, 30 chances created), the highest ratio of any player in the division.
- 80% of Diogo Jota’s goals in all competitions for Wolves this season have come at home (8/10). Indeed, the Portuguese has scored seven goals in his last eight appearances at Molineux.
- Fulham’s Ryan Babel has scored five Premier League goals this season, his best ever return in the competition. Indeed, 29% of his total goals in the competition have come in his 14 appearances for the Cottagers (5/17).
Odds correct as of 1405 BST on 02/05/19
