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Premier League betting tips: Previews, Super 6 predictions & best bets for Saturday's 3pm kick-offs
Mark your card for Saturday's 3pm kick-offs in the Premier League with the best bets, Super 6 predictions and top stats for each game.
Recommended bets
1pt Cardiff to beat Burnley and over 1.5 total goals at 5/1
1pt Everton to beat Fulham on -1 handicap at 21/10
1pt Southampton to score 2+ goals v Wolves at 9/5
For advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Fixtures
- Brighton and Hove Albion v AFC Bournemouth
- Burnley v Cardiff City
- Fulham v Everton
- Southampton v Wolverhampton Wanderers
Brighton v AFC Bournemouth
A match you would not expect to be first up on Match of the Day, between two sides whose Premier League campaigns have been petering out for some time.
Brighton are returning to league action after enjoying a day out at Wembley last weekend, going down fighting in a 1-0 defeat to Man City, and they will be hoping to end a four-match winless run in all competitions.
They have won just three league games since the turn of the year and safety is not yet confirmed, with them 16th and five points above Cardiff.
So a win here would be nice, a point still decent, as they look to edge closer to survival being confirmed - the margin is probably less than the usual 40 points this time around - and they face a Bournemouth side who have struggled for consistency this term.
The Cherries have won only one of their last nine league games yet still sit 10 points above Cardiff. As much as Eddie Howe will want to turn their fortunes around sooner rather than later, this is a great chance for Brighton to all-but confirm their place in the top flight next season.
With their record at the Amex of six wins and four draws from 15, plus Bournemouth's away struggles with 12 defeats, the preference is to back the Seagulls.
The old Sunday league phrase of 'they want it more' could not be more fitting here. With few goals expected, Brighton to win and under 3.5 total goals at just over 2/1 is a nice price for one of the least inspiring Premier League fixtures of the weekend.
Super 6 prediction: Brighton 1-0 AFC Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Best bet: Brighton to win and under 3.5 total goals at 21/10
Opta facts
- Brighton are looking to win consecutive competitive matches against Bournemouth for the first time since January 2008, following their 3-1 win in the FA Cup third round in January.
- Bournemouth are unbeaten in their last nine league games against Brighton, winning five and drawing four.
- Brighton have lost only one of their last 14 home matches in all competitions against Bournemouth (W7 D6), losing 0-2 in April 2015 in the Championship.
- Brighton have lost three of their last five Premier League home games (W1 D1), as many as they had in their previous 17 at the Amex Stadium (W9 D5 L3).
- None of Bournemouth’s last 19 away league games have ended level (W5 L14), with the winning side netting at least two goals each time in those games.
- Bournemouth won six of their opening 10 Premier League games this season (D2 L2), taking them up to sixth in the table at the end of October. Since then, they’ve won just five of their 23 league games (D3 L15) with only relegated Fulham (17) and Huddersfield (18) losing more Premier League games than the Cherries since November.
- Only Fulham (44) have conceded more away Premier League goals this season than Bournemouth (37).
- Bournemouth’s Callum Wilson has scored in both of his league appearances against Brighton at the Amex stadium, netting two goals.
- Brighton striker Glenn Murray has failed to score in his last eight Premier League home games – he last had a longer goalless run at home in the English leagues (excluding play-offs) between October 2011-April 2012 with Crystal Palace (14 games).
- Bournemouth’s Ryan Fraser has provided more assists away from home than any other player in the Premier League this season (6), with the Scotsman setting up four of Bournemouth’s last eight goals on the road.
Burnley v Cardiff
A match that would have been a relegation six-pointer a couple of weeks ago, but back-to-back victories have lifted Sean Dyche's side eight points clear of safety.
With two sides in Huddersfield and Fulham already relegated, Cardiff occupy the final spot and it will take something close to a miracle for them to avoid the drop now. That is because they still have to face Liverpool and Man United in their remaining six games. It really is now or never for Neil Warnock's side.
They have lost their last two games 2-1 and 2-0, but that was against Chelsea and Man City respectively. They played well against both, as they often have this season.
They will be fired up for this though, and the Clarets could be forgiven for taking their foot off the gas a little, so there is a temptation to back Cardiff to show fight and get a result. The Welsh side won 2-1 at Ralph Hasenhuttl's Southampton in February and Turf Moor is no longer the fortress it once was.
The visitors are available at a best price of 18/5 for the win, but can be boosted to a nice 5/1 if you combine that with over 1.5 total goals.
They have scored at least two goals on eight occasions this season and fighting spirit can help them to a shock win in Lancashire. It's risky, but at 5/1, is worth a small play.
Super 6 prediction: Burnley 1-2 Cardiff (Sky Bet odds: Price Boosted to 18/1)
Best bet: Cardiff to win and over 1.5 total goals at 5/1
Opta facts
- Burnley haven’t lost a home game against Cardiff since May 1988 (1-2), winning six and drawing eight since then.
- Cardiff haven’t lost consecutive matches against Burnley since the 1999-00 campaign in the third tier.
- Burnley manager Sean Dyce has never lost against Neil Warnock, winning four of his five matches against the Cardiff boss (D1).
- Burnley have won their last two Premier League games, each by a margin of two goals. The last time they won three in a row by 2+ goals in the top-flight was back in October 1968 (a run of four).
- Cardiff have lost five of their last six Premier League games (W1), with a victory against West Ham the only exception in that run.
- Burnley have lost just one of their last 14 Premier League games against sides starting the day in the relegation zone (W7 D6), though that loss was earlier this season against Fulham.
- Burnley’s Ashley Barnes has had a hand in four goals in three league starts against Cardiff (three goals, one assist), although his last goal against them came back in March 2012.
- Cardiff’s Victor Camarasa has scored two goals in his last three Premier League games, as many as he’d netted in his previous 21 in the competition.
- Ashley Barnes has scored 10 league goals for Burnley this season – only Danny Ings in 2014-15 (11) has netted more in a single Premier League campaign for the Clarets.
- Cardiff’s nine away league goals this season have been netted by eight different players, with Sol Bamba the only Bluebird to score more than once on the road.
Fulham v Everton
Confidence is back up at Everton after three wins in a row, including against Arsenal and Chelsea, and a seventh-place finish is now firmly back in their sights.
Marco Silva's side are just a point behind Leicester, who currently occupy that spot, and the fixtures do not come much better than against an already relegated side. There is a danger Scott Parker's Cottagers could actually improve and play with more freedom as you often see once a side is confirmed as down, but the Toffees have the wind in their sails and more than enough to beat whichever Fulham side turns up.
Phil Jagielka scored the winner against Arsenal last weekend and the interesting option in the goalscoring markets is on his partner Kurt Zouma to score anytime. The on-loan defender had two efforts against the Gunners and poses a threat in opposition boxes. The Toffees have scored the third-most goals from set pieces (13) this season while Fulham have conceded nine, so the 10/1 price on towering defender Zouma to find the back of the net anytime is tempting.
The preferred option though, is on the visitors to win on a -1 handicap at just over 2/1. The Cottagers have improved under Parker, but now they are down and out and have been poor in front of their own fans at Craven Cottage.
The hosts have conceded at least two in their last 13 matches and Everton have kept five clean sheets in six while scoring at least two in their last three away matches.
With Everton still have something to fight for, they can coast to victory in west London and 2/1 on the handicap provides plenty of appeal.
Super 6 prediction: Fulham 1-3 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Best bet: Everton to win on -1 handicap at 21/10
Opta facts
- Fulham have failed to win any of their last 10 meetings with Everton in the Premier League (D2 L8); their longest winless run against the Toffees in league competition.
- After losing their first seven away Premier League games against Fulham, Everton have won three of their last six (D2 L1).
- Everton have lost only one of their last 19 Premier League away matches against newly promoted teams (W7 D11), losing versus Burnley in October 2016 (1-2).
- Already relegated Fulham have conceded at least twice in each of their last 13 Premier League games, losing 12 of them (W1). The only teams to have conceded 2+ goals in more consecutive top-flight matches are Manchester United (16 games from April-October 1930) and Newcastle United (14 games from May-October 1977).
- Everton are looking to win four consecutive Premier League games for the first time since September 2016.
- Everton have won three of their six away league games so far in 2019 (L3) – they only won four of their 18 on the road in the whole of 2018 (W4 D4 L10).
- Everton won their last league visit to London, beating West Ham 2-0. They’ve not won consecutive league games in the capital since May 2015.
- Fulham have had fewer different goalscorers (exc. own-goals) than any other side in the Premier League this season (9).
- Everton’s Gylfi Sigurdsson has scored four goals in four Premier League matches against Fulham, including netting twice in this season’s reverse fixture in September.
- Before joining Fulham, Ryan Babel had won all 11 Premier League games in which he scored. He’s since netted in three games for the Cottagers, losing all of them.
Southampton v Wolves
A match with plenty of potential due to both managers' playing styles and tactical awareness. Probably a bore draw now that's been said...
Southampton were so unlucky not to claim a point in their home defeat to Liverpool last Friday and despite their improvement under Ralph Hasenhuttl, survival is not yet certain.
The Saints are just a place above the drop and five points clear of Cardiff. Surprising to see them so lowly placed considering they have won three of their last five.
A decent fixture list until the end of the season should see them safe though, and Saturday's clash is against a Wolves side coming here on the back of a disappointing defeat.
Nuno Espirito Santo's men lost in extra-time to Watford in the FA Cup semi-final and the Portuguese boss will be hoping for a reaction, rather than seeing his Wolves outfit licking their wounds.
Although they can get seventh place, the Saints need this one more and they can get past a side who were beaten in their last away outing in the Premier League, at Burnley.
They will have to dig deep and the price of just under 2/1 for them to score at least two goals looks attractive, with insurance in the event of a high-scoring draw.
In Hasenhuttl's seven Premier League wins, six of them have seen Southampton score at least two goals and four of them have been on home turf. The return of striker Danny Ings should give them a nice boost, too.
Super 6 prediction: Southampton 2-1 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: Price Boosted to 10/1)
Best bet: Southampton to score 2+ goals at 9/5
Opta facts
- This will be just the second time Southampton will host Wolves in a Premier League match, with the only other such meeting coming in September 2003; Saints won 2-0 thanks to a James Beattie brace.
- After 17 matches without a victory (P17 W0 D7 L10), Wolves have beaten Southampton in each of their last four meetings in all competitions, keeping clean sheets in their most recent three.
- Only Aston Villa (42) and West Ham United (44) have lost more Premier League games against newly promoted sides than Southampton (37), who have lost five of their last six such matches (W1).
- Southampton have dropped a league-high 23 points from winning positions in the Premier League this season, 15 of which have come in games at St Mary’s.
- Southampton have won five of their 12 Premier League games so far in 2019 (D3 L4). They only won six in the whole of 2018 in the competition (P37 W6 D13 L18).
- Wolves haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last 12 Premier League away games, and are without a win in their last four on the road (D2 L2).
- Southampton striker Charlie Austin has scored in two of his three league appearances against Wolves (two goals), including in his last home match against them for Burnley back in November 2012.
- Wolves’ Raul Jimenez has been directly involved in 19 Premier League goals this season (12 goals, 7 assists). The last non-British/Irish player to record 20+ goal involvements for a promoted side in the competition was Peter Odemwingie for West Brom in 2010-11 (15 goals, 7 assists).
- Raul Jimenez has been directly involved in 48% of Wolves’ 40 Premier League goals this season (12 goals, 7 assists) – only Eden Hazard (49%) has been involved in a higher share of his teams goals.
- Southampton’s Shane Long scored just his second Premier League goal of the season in his 20th appearance against Liverpool last time out. He last scored in back-to-back games in the competition in May 2016.
Odds correct as of 1700 BST on 11/04/19