A reduced programme in the Premier League on Saturday afternoon, with just three fixtures. George Pitts runs through the best bets with a prediction and stats.
Recommended bets
1pt Ryan Fraser to score anytime at 4/1
1pt Leicester -1 on corner handicap at 7/5
For advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Fixtures
- AFC Bournemouth v Burnley
- Huddersfield Town v Leicester City
- Newcastle United v Crystal Palace
AFC Bournemouth v Burnley
Safety is still yet to be guaranteed for Burnley, despite a credible win over Wolves last weekend.
That victory bought them a five-point gap over 18th-placed Cardiff and Sean Dyche's side, who travel to Wales next week, will be determined to get points on the board before facing Chelsea, Man City and Arsenal in the run-in.
They come up against a Bournemouth side lacking in confidence and coasting to the end of the campaign.
With just one win in their last eight, the fact they are still 12th shows how good they were in the opening months of the season. They have struggled for consistency since November though and this fixture presents them with a good opportunity to get their second win in four.
If you are favouring a Bournemouth win, backing them to be winning after an hour presents a commendable 7/5 price. But with Burnley scrapping for points, the preference is to avoid the result and to look at a potential goalscorer.
Bournemouth can at least get on the score sheet on home soil and the 4/1 price on Ryan Fraser anytime makes it worth a small play. The Scotland winger, who will no doubt be buoyed by rumoured Arsenal interest this week, found the back of the net in the Cherries' recent win at Huddersfield and the odds are pretty generous for an attacking player like Fraser.
He averages over a shot per game in the Premier League this term and is influential for Bournemouth going forward, providing a threat from the left and often drifting inside.
His six goals this term have all come against opposition outside of the top six and he was unfortunate not to score in the reverse fixture at Turf Moor with four shots on goal.
Burnley are unconvincing away from home, conceding 31 goals in 16 on the road this season, and Fraser can get the better of them.
Super 6 prediction: AFC Bournemouth 2-1 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Best bet: Ryan Fraser to score anytime at 4/1
Opta facts
- Bournemouth have won just two of their last 10 league meetings with Burnley (D3 L5), though these victories have come in their last four matches against them.
- Having won the reverse fixture 4-0 back in September, Burnley are looking to complete their first league double over Bournemouth since the 1999-00 season in the third tier.
- Bournemouth are winless in their last three Premier League home games, last going four without a win at the Vitality Stadium in December 2017.
- After losing their first four such games, Burnley are unbeaten in their last five Premier League matches on the south coast, winning three and drawing two.
- Bournemouth have picked up just five points from their last eight Premier League games (W1 D2 L5), with a 2-0 victory at Huddersfield their only win in that run.
- Bournemouth have only lost one of their last 18 Premier League home games against sides starting the day below them in the table (W11 D6), with that defeat coming against Manchester United in November.
- Burnley kept a clean sheet in their last league game against Wolves (2-0). They’ve not recorded back-to-back shutouts in the Premier League since December 2017 (a run of three).
- Bournemouth striker Josh King has netted six goals in his last five Premier League home games, accounting for 67% of the Cherries’ total strikes in those matches (6/9).
- Burnley’s Dwight McNeil has scored in each of his last two Premier League appearances. The last teenager to score in three Premier League games in a row was Romelu Lukaku in March 2013.
- Coming into this round of matches, Bournemouth’s Ryan Fraser and Callum Wilson have each both scored and assisted in four different Premier League games this season – no other player has done so in more (also Troy Deeney and Mo Salah on four).
Huddersfield v Leicester
Huddersfield are already relegated while Leicester are on a roll under Brendan Rodgers, so there are no surprises at how the bookies expect this one to pan out.
The Terriers are playing for pride. Despite becoming only the second team in the Premier League era to be relegated before the end of March, it is probably still harsh to see Jan Siewert's side considered as one of the league's worst sides.
They have, in fairness, played pretty well in most games and have just fallen terribly short in the final third.
Leicester, meanwhile, started under Rodgers with a loss but have since won three on the bounce and have their sights set on finishing best of the rest in the league (seventh).
Huddersfield have scored just seven goals in front of their own fans all season and Leicester can continue their progress under the former Celtic boss with a win here.
The 23/20 on offer for Leicester to win and over 1.5 total goals is a good option, as is the 13/2 on January signing Youri Tielemans to score anytime after his man of the match showing in last week's win over Bournemouth.
But an interesting stat to see is that Leicester have the third-highest corner count in the top flight this term, behind only Man City and Liverpool. They have had an eyebrow-raising 21 in their last three games, while Huddersfield have taken the fourth-fewest in the league this season.
Therefore, the 7/5 available on Leicester to have the most corners on a -1 handicap is a good option to go with considering how we expect this game to go, with plenty of possession and chances for the visitors.
Super 6 prediction: Huddersfield 0-2 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Best bet: Leicester -1 on corner handicap at 7/5
Opta facts
- Huddersfield are winless in their last 10 league meetings with Leicester (D1 L9) since a 3-1 victory in the second tier in November 1995.
- Leicester have only failed to score in one of their last 21 league meetings with Huddersfield (0-1 in November 1987), finding the net in each of the last 12.
- Huddersfield haven’t scored more than once in their last 21 Premier League home games (8 goals in total) and have lost eight of their last nine at the John Smith’s Stadium (W1).
- Leicester have only failed to score in one of their 16 Premier League away games this season (0-1 vs Crystal Palace).
- Already relegated Huddersfield have taken just four points from their last 57 available in the Premier League (W1 D1 L17).
- Leicester have won their last three Premier League games, last winning four in a row in December 2017 under Claude Puel.
- Huddersfield will be the 31st different side Leicester manager Brendan Rodgers has faced in the Premier League – he’s beaten 27 of the previous 30 he’s come up against, failing only against Chelsea (8 games), Wolves (2) and Watford (1).
- Leicester manager Brendan Rodgers has already won three of his four Premier League games in charge of the Foxes. It took him 15 games to win four matches at his of his previous clubs in the competition (Swansea City and Liverpool).
- Steve Mounie is the only Huddersfield player to score more than once in Premier League home games this season, with the Beninese forward netting twice at the John Smith’s Stadium.
- Leicester captain Wes Morgan has scored in his last two Premier League games, and could become the first Jamaican to net in three consecutively in the competition since Ricardo Fuller in May 2009.
Newcastle v Crystal Palace
Two sides closing in on safety and a point would probably be a good result for both on Saturday.
Newcastle are 14th and seven clear of the drop, largely down to their home form with five successive victories at St James' Park.
You would expect that run to come to an end eventually, but their next couple of fixtures on Tyneside are more than winnable and the streak can be extended to at least seven. But it is unpredictable old Newcastle that we are talking about.
Rafa Benitez's men have undoubtedly improved in the second half of the campaign, with the likes of Ayoze Perez and Salomon Rondon stepping up performances as well as the arrival of exciting prospect Miguel Almiron in January.
Palace, meanwhile, have lost three of their last five in the Premier League and sit a place above Saturday's opponents.
Roy Hodgson's side were beaten in midweek as Spurs started life at their new stadium in style, but they will see this as a winnable game with the Magpies losing 50% of their home matches so far this term.
It is too close to call and with both of these sides' situations, a point would take them closer to safety and the feeling is they will both settle for a point from this one.
Super 6 prediction: Newcastle 1-1 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Best bet: Draw at 21/10
Opta facts
- Newcastle have lost just one of their last 11 Premier League meetings with Crystal Palace (W5 D5), losing 1-5 at Selhurst Park in November 2015.
- Crystal Palace have won just one of their seven Premier League away games against Newcastle (D2 L4), winning 2-1 in March 1998.
- Newcastle have kept a clean sheet in six of their last seven home games against Crystal Palace in all competitions, with the exception being a 3-3 draw in August 2014.
- Newcastle have won their last five Premier League home games – they last won six in a row at St James’ Park in the competition between January-April 2004.
- Newcastle are winless in all 10 of their Premier League games against sides from London this season (home and away), drawing two and losing eight. They’ve never had a longer winless run against London clubs in the top-flight (also 10 in October 1999).
- Crystal Palace have alternated between victory and defeat in their last six Premier League games, losing against Spurs last time out.
- Crystal Palace have only failed to score in one of their last nine Premier League away games, though it was in their defeat against Spurs in midweek.
- Newcastle striker Salomon Rondon has scored nine Premier League goals this season – he’s never reached double figures in a single campaign in the competition.
- Salomon Rondon has been directly involved in six goals in his last five home appearances for Newcastle in the Premier League (3 goals, 3 assists).
- After a run of scoring five goals in five games, Wilfried Zaha has failed to score in his last three Premier League appearances.
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Odds correct as of 1600 BST on 04/04/19
