After profit in the Champions League in midweek, George Pitts looks ahead to Saturday's 3pm kick-offs in the Premier League, which is a reduced programme due to the FA Cup quarter-finals.
Recommended bets
1pt Bournemouth to score in both halves v Newcastle at 12/5
1pt Leicester to beat Burnley and over 1.5 total goals at 9/4
1pt West Ham to win 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 against Huddersfield at 6/4
For advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Fixtures
- AFC Bournemouth v Newcastle United
- Burnley v Leicester City
- West Ham United v Huddersfield Town
Bournemouth v Newcastle
Inconsistency has been a big problem for Bournemouth this season and they can at last record back-to-back wins with three points on Saturday.
They won successive home games in January, great results against London duo West Ham and Chelsea without conceding, before going on a five-match winless run.
Although they are without victory in their last six away trips, the Magpies will be on a high after winning their fifth successive home match in the Premier League as they came from two down against Everton to win 3-2 last weekend.
The Cherries can take advantage of Rafa Benitez's side's vulnerability on the road though and it's worth finding a way to side with their attacking prowess, with two or more home goals considered at 11/10.
Given that Bournemouth's fixtures have averaged over three goals per game in the Premier League this season, the 12/5 on them to win with over 2.5 total goals was also appealing, but backing them to score in both halves at the same price is the preferred option and gets our vote.
They have netted in both halves seven times this season, most recently in the win at Huddersfield last week. As with backing 2+ goals, this option does not rely on the outcome of the final result, just as long as they find the back of the net.
Talking of goals, a nice away price on an anytime scorer is Salomon Rondon, who bagged a double in the reverse fixture and also scored against Everton last time out.
The Venezuelan, on loan from West Brom, has scored three on the road for the Magpies this term, while his strike partner Ayoze Perez tends to save Premier League fireworks for St James' Park. The anytime best price of 23/10 on Rondon, who has had 20 shots in his last five games, is worth considering for a small play.
Both of these sides are guilty of leaking goals and this clash could be quite an open one between two sides closely positioned in the table, so backing Bournemouth to find the back of the net in both halves at such a price is a good option.
Super 6 prediction: Bournemouth 2-1 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Best bet: Bournemouth to score in both halves at 12/5
Opta facts
- Bournemouth have won neither of their home Premier League meetings with Newcastle, losing in 2015-16 and drawing in 2017-18.
- Newcastle’s only league defeat away at Bournemouth came in the second tier in September 1989, with Mick Quinn scoring the Magpies’ goal in a 1-2 defeat.
- The home side has only won once in the five previous Premier League meetings between Bournemouth and Newcastle (D1 L3), with Newcastle winning the reverse fixture at St James’ Park.
- Newcastle have won just three of their 27 away Premier League games on the south coast (vs Brighton, Bournemouth, Portsmouth and Southampton), drawing 10 and losing 14.
- Each of Bournemouth’s last seven home league defeats have come against ‘big six’ opposition. The last non such side to beat them at the Vitality Stadium was Burnley in November 2017.
- Newcastle have picked up just two points from their last 18 available away from home in the Premier League (P6 W0 D2 L4).
- Ryan Fraser and Callum Wilson have combined for nine Premier League goals for Bournemouth this season – the last duo to combine for more in a single season were Arsenal’s Nicolas Anelka and Dennis Bergkamp in 1998-99 (10 goals).
- Only against Swansea (4) has Salomon Rondon scored more Premier League goals than he has against Bournemouth (3), with the Venezuelan netting both of Newcastle’s goals in their 2-1 win against the Cherries earlier this season.
- Bournemouth’s Callum Wilson is looking to score in four consecutive league appearances for the first time since October 2014 in the Championship.
- Newcastle’s Ayoze Perez has netted six Premier League goals this season, though they’ve all been at St James’ Park. He’s the highest goalscorer in the division this season yet to score away from home.
Burnley v Leicester
Brendan Rodgers got his first victory as Leicester boss last week and he will be hoping the winning feeling can continue for their trip to Turf Moor.
They face a Burnley side who beat Tottenham on home soil less than a month ago, but they have since lost three successive Premier League matches and will be looking nervously over their shoulders with just a two-point cushion over the bottom three.
The Foxes had plenty of positives to take from last weekend's 3-1 win over Fulham, with plenty of aggression and intent, and another week on the training ground with their new boss will have done them the world of good.
Jamie Vardy has been tipped to flourish under the Northern Irishman after an encouraging performance - where he netted his 100th goal for the club - against the Cottagers and he can help City score at least two on their trip to Lancashire.
The Clarets have conceded at least two in their last three games and, although Sean Dyche will look to tighten things up, Leicester should get the victory and the 7/5 on them to score 2+ goals makes some appeal. Turf Moor was once a fortress but seven defeats in 14 means Burnley now boast the league's third-worst home record.
That said, keeping it simple with Leicester to win and over 1.5 total goals is the way to go with odds above 2/1. Rodgers is still in his early days, taking charge of just his third match, and the new manager bounce can take effect here against a Burnley side low on confidence and with just two wins in their last nine in all competitions.
Super 6 prediction: Burnley 1-2 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Best bet: Leicester to win and over 1.5 total goals at 9/4
Opta facts
- Burnley have won their last two home league games against Leicester, having lost the previous four against them at Turf Moor.
- Leicester have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their Premier League games against Burnley (4/7), their joint-best ratio in the competition against sides they’ve played more than twice (also 57% vs Sunderland).
- Burnley have won their last two Premier League home games against Leicester – they’ve never won three in a row against an opponent at Turf Moor in the competition.
- Burnley have lost 13 Premier League games by a margin of two or more goals this season, only Fulham (17) have lost more. Indeed, the Clarets only lost 12 games in total in the whole of the 2017-18 campaign.
- After an eight game unbeaten run in the Premier League (W5 D3), Burnley have lost each of their last three in the competition. Sean Dyche’s side had the sixth best defensive record in the Premier League last season (39 conceded), but have shipped the joint second highest number of goals in the competition this term (57).
- Leicester have won two of their last three Premier League games (L1), more than they had in their final eight under Claude Puel (W1 D1 L6).
- Burnley’s games have seen more 90th minute goals than any other side in the Premier League this season (12), with the Clarets shipping a league-high nine times in the 90th minute or later (scored three).
- Burnley’s Ashley Barnes has scored in each of his last three home Premier League games – no player has ever scored in four in a row at Turf Moor for the club in the competition.
- Leicester manager Brendan Rodgers has won four of his five league meetings with Burnley (L1), winning against them with three different teams (Watford, Swansea and Liverpool); the Clarets could become the first team Rodgers has beaten with four different teams.
- Leicester striker Jamie Vardy has scored five goals in his last five Premier League games – more than he had in his previous 16 in the competition (4).
West Ham v Huddersfield
West Ham are another side struggling for consistency in 2019, having won just twice in their last nine in all competitions.
One source of encouragement for them is that they have collected seven points from their last three home games, avoiding defeat against Liverpool, and an ideal game for them to bounce back from last week's away defeat in Cardiff is this one, at home to Huddersfield.
The Terriers have won just one of their last 18 in all competitions and Jan Siewert was unhappy with his side's application in their recent defeat at home to Bournemouth.
The German will be looking for a reaction from his men and, while we may see an improvement, Manuel Pellegrini's outfit have the quality to see off the relegation-bound Yorkshire outfit. The Hammers have started to settle at the London Stadium, winning seven and drawing three, and a win here would equal last season's points haul on home turf.
There was a temptation to go into the scoring markets or to look at bookings, but the 6/4 available on correct score group betting - West Ham to win 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 - looks like the way to go. Huddersfield are lacking in front of goal and five of the Hammers' last six have seen fewer than three goals scored.
Super 6 prediction: West Ham 2-0 Huddersfield (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Best bet: West Ham to win 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 at 6/4
Opta facts
- West Ham are unbeaten in their three Premier League games against Huddersfield (W2 D1) – they’ve only faced Bradford more often without defeat in the competition (4).
- Huddersfield have lost their last three away games against West Ham in all competitions, since a 1-0 win in the top-flight in May 1971.
- After winning their first Premier League game in London 3-0 against Crystal Palace, Huddersfield are winless in their subsequent seven in the capital (D1 L6), scoring one and conceding 17 goals in these games.
- West Ham haven’t lost a home Premier League match against the side starting the day bottom since February 2007 against Watford (0-1), winning seven and drawing three since.
- Yorkshire teams have lost their last seven Premier League visits to West Ham (Hull City five times, Sheffield United and Huddersfield once each) since Leeds United won 4-3 in November 2002.
- West Ham are looking to win three consecutive Premier League games at the London Stadium for the first time. They last won three in a row at home in March 2016 at the Boleyn Ground.
- Huddersfield are winless in their last eight away Premier League games (D1 L7), failing to score in each of their last five.
- Huddersfield have picked up just four points from their last 51 available in the Premier League (P17 W1 D1 L15).
- Huddersfield have failed to score in 54% of their total Premier League games (37/68) – they’re the only side in the competition’s history to fail to score in over half of their games played.
- Huddersfield have used the joint-highest number of different players in the Premier League this season (29, level with Southampton), but have had the joint fewest goalscorers (9, level with Fulham), meaning just 31% of their players used have found the net this term.
Odds correct as of 1500 GMT on 14/03/19
