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Premier League betting tips: Previews, Super 6 predictions & best bets for Saturday's 3pm kick-offs
Mark your card for Saturday's 3pm kick-offs in the Premier League with the best bets, Super 6 predictions and top stats for each game.
Recommended bets
1pt First half to be highest scoring in Huddersfield v Brighton at 13/5
1pt Leicester to score two or more v Watford at 6/5
2pts Over 12.5 corners in Man City v Bournemouth at 9/4
1pt West Ham (+1) on corners taken handicap at 11/10
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
3pm fixtures
Crystal Palace v Burnley (click fixture to bet)
Huddersfield Town v Brighton and Hove Albion
Crystal Palace v Burnley
The Premier League's worst home side this season welcome one of the division's worst away teams and both are desperate for a win in a game which the hosts could edge.
Roy Hodgson's Palace have not won in the Premier League since mid-September, but a hard-earned draw at Manchester United gives them plenty to be positive about going into this and there is no reason why they cannot register their first home win of the season.
They have only scored two at Selhurst Park all season, both in a draw with Arsenal, and desperately need to turn their home form around if they are to avoid relegation. To do so, beating the teams around them is vital.
An away clean sheet at Old Trafford is something to cling to (even in the modern day!) and Hodgson could trust the same XI this time around, against a Burnley side winless in their last six.
We are keeping it simple here. Crystal Palace to win and over 1.5 total goals is above even money and the preferred option with the visitors having been poor against Newcastle on Monday night.
Super 6 prediction: Crystal Palace 2-1 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Best bet: Crystal Palace to win and over 1.5 total goals at 21/20
Opta facts
- Crystal Palace have lost three of their last four Premier League games against Burnley, although they won the most recent meeting in January 2018 at Selhurst Park.
- In league competition, Burnley have won just one of their last 12 away matches against Crystal Palace (D6 L5), a 2-0 win in April 2017 in the Premier League.
- Six of Burnley’s eight Premier League goals against Crystal Palace have come in the opening 20 minutes, with their fastest ever Premier League goal coming against the Eagles in November 2016 (Sam Vokes – one minute, 18 seconds).
- Burnley have lost their last three away Premier League games in London, conceding at least four goals in every match (13 goals in total). The last team to concede four or more in four consecutive away top-flight visits to London were Leicester City in August 1965.
- Crystal Palace are winless in eight Premier League games (D3 L5), failing to score in five of those.
- Since the start of last season; only Harry Kane (8) and Alvaro Morata (7) have scored more headed goals in the Premier League than Burnley’s Sam Vokes (5). In fact, five of his last six goals have come from headers.
Huddersfield v Brighton
Another big game in the bottom half of the Premier League as Huddersfield look to extend their unbeaten run to four matches.
Brighton have collected just one point from their last three games and, with points on the line as well as the risk of gifting them to a bottom-half rival, the result is a tough one to predict with a draw perhaps the most obvious outcome.
David Wagner's new formation has helped produce a steady improvement in form, with Sunday's surprise away win at Wolves giving the Terriers confidence, and they can take that into a match against a Brighton team which continues to struggle on the road.
That said, they're not easy to break down - certainly, expect a more organised display than that which Wolves produced - and with Huddersfield lacking creative spark they could just let favourite-backers down here.
Town have, at least, scored in the first half of their last three games, while Brighton have done the same in five of their last six. With that in mind, the first period to be the highest scoring half is considered decent value and worth a small bet.
Super 6 prediction: Huddersfield 1-1 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 9/2)
Best bet: Highest scoring half - the first at 13/5
Opta facts
- Huddersfield have lost just one of their last 10 home league games against Brighton (W5 D4), a 1-2 defeat in the 2012-13 Championship season.
- Six of the last 10 league meetings between Huddersfield and Brighton have ended as draws, with both sides winning two games each in the other four games.
- Huddersfield have won four points in their last two home Premier League games (W1 D1), as many as in their previous nine combined (W1 D1 L7).
- Huddersfield have won two of their last three Premier League games (D1), more than they had in their previous 20 in the competition (W1 D7 L12).
- Brighton haven’t scored more than once in any of their last eight Premier League games, though they have found the net in each of the last six (W3 D1 L2).
- Glenn Murray has scored 40% of all Brighton’s Premier League goals (19/48) – the highest ratio of any player at a club in the history of the competition.
Leicester v Watford
Claude Puel will be keen to see his side turn draws into wins, having ended level on 90 minutes in four of their last five in this current unbeaten run (in all competitions).
Watford, who this week handed manager Javi Gracia a new four-and-a-half year deal, started the season well but are without a win in their last three.
It's ninth versus tenth and another tough one to call but the feeling is the Foxes will make the home advantage count.
Watford have won just two on the road all season and tend to struggle on their travels to the King Power. A home win and both teams to score is available at around the 7/2 mark and considered strongly.
Leicester have won eight of their last 10 home matches against Watford in all competitions (see Opta facts, below), scoring at least two in nine of their last 11 home meetings with the Hornets.
Watford, meanwhile, have conceded two or more in four of their five meetings with top-half opposition this season (v Man United, Arsenal, Bournemouth and Liverpool). With this in mind, Leicester to score two or more at 6/5 is the best option, removing the risk of being stung by goals at the other end.
Super 6 prediction: Leicester 2-1 Watford (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Best bet: Leicester to score two or more at 6/5
Opta facts
- Leicester City have won all four of their home Premier League matches against Watford, scoring eight goals and conceding just once.
- Watford have won just one of their last 11 away matches at the King Power Stadium against Leicester in all competitions (D2 L8), a 2-1 victory in April 2013 in the Championship.
- Leicester are unbeaten in four Premier League games (W1 D3), last going five without defeat in December 2017.
- Leicester have conceded a league-high share 65% of their Premier League goals in the first half of games this season (11/17), with five of those coming in the opening 15 minutes.
- Watford have kept just one clean sheet in their last 12 away Premier League games (W2 D2 L8), a 2-0 win at Wolves in October.
- Just one of Leicester striker Jamie Vardy’s four Premier League goals this season have been at home. He’s failed to score in his last three home league games, his longest drought at the King Power Stadium since November 2016 (5 games).
- Watford’s Jose Holebas has been directly involved in six Premier League goals this season, more than any other defender in the competition (2 goals, 4 assists).
Manchester City v Bournemouth
Manchester City will take some stopping this season. Pep Guardiola's side are unlikely to lose to teams outside the top six at the Etihad, meaning the odds are stacked massively in their favour in most markets and value is therefore hard to come by.
After a good run catapulted Eddie Howe's side into that top-six bracket, three successive defeats have halted their progress and the Cherries will be more focused on getting results against Huddersfield and Wolves in the coming weeks, rather than against the likes of City, Liverpool and Chelsea, who they also face in December.
Despite betting opportunities being hard to pin down, a venture into the first goal interval is worth looking at. City have scored four times in the opening 10 minutes this season, seven times between 11 and 20 minutes and you can back the first goal coming in either of these intervals at 15/8 and 11/4 respectively.
Backing a high shots tally is also worth considering with plenty of chances expected, and it may be that it's in the sub-markets that the best bet can be found.
Both sides in the top three for total corners this season (Man City are top with 93, Bournemouth third with 80) and over 12.5 total corners in the match at 9/4, given the expected emphasis on attack, is one of the bets of the weekend.
Super 6 prediction: Man City 4-1 AFC Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Best bet: Over 12.5 total match corners at 9/4
Opta facts
- Manchester City have won all six Premier League matches against Bournemouth, scoring 21 goals and conceding only two.
- Bournemouth are yet to win a league match against Manchester City – in 12 previous meetings, they’ve drawn twice and lost 10.
- Bournemouth are yet to lose an away Premier League match against the reigning champion – they beat Chelsea in both the 2015-16 and 2017-18 seasons and drew with Leicester City in 2016-17.
- If Man City avoid defeat, it will be their third unbeaten run in the Premier League of 20+ games – something only Manchester United (7 times) and Arsenal (4 times) have done more often in the competition.
- The only two games Man City have failed to win in the Premier League this season have been in the only two games in which they’ve failed to score in the first half (1-1 vs Wolves, 0-0 vs Liverpool).
- Man City’s Raheem Sterling has had a hand in nine goals in five Premier League appearances against Bournemouth (7 goals, 2 assists), averaging a goal or assist every 48 minutes.
- Raheem Sterling could become the first player in Premier League history to score in his first six appearances against an opponent, having netted in all five of his games for Man City against Bournemouth so far.
- Seven of Man City striker Sergio Aguero’s eight Premier League goals this season have come in home games. The Argentine has been involved in 23 goals in his last 14 Premier League games at the Etihad (18 goals, 5 assists).
Newcastle v West Ham
A meeting between 13th and 14th respectively at St James' Park, another of Saturday's Premier League fixtures that might be considered too close to call.
Rafa Benitez's side shot up the bottom half of the table in November, with Monday's win at Burnley extending their unbeaten run to four matches - the last three of which have been vital wins.
Their streak has to end eventually and, given the fact the Magpies have lost five of seven on Tyneside this term, the Hammers will fancy their chances.
Backing an away win at just over the 2/1 mark is tempting, but again avoiding the result and venturing into set pieces provides a safer option.
Manuel Pellegrini's side had eight corners against Man City last week, a surprise considering the 0-4 scoreline, and have taken a total of 24 corners in their last three Premier League matches.
Newcastle average around five corners per game this season and backing the visitors with a +1 handicap, at above evens, is too good to turn down.
Super 6 prediction: Newcastle 1-2 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Best bet: West Ham (+1) on the corners taken handicap at 11/10
Opta facts
- Newcastle have won their last three Premier League matches against West Ham, their best run against the Hammers since winning four in a row between September 1993 and March 1995.
- West Ham have won just one of their last 14 Premier League visits to St. James’ Park against Newcastle (D5 L8), a 1-0 win in November 2012.
- After losing their first five home league games this season, Newcastle have picked up back-to-back Premier League victories at St James’ Park.
- Only Fulham (0) have kept fewer clean sheets than West Ham in the Premier League this season (1).
- West Ham’s Andy Carroll (pictured) has scored just once in 14 Premier League games against his former clubs, netting in a 2-0 win for the Hammers against Liverpool in January 2016.
- Newcastle manager Rafael Benitez has won six of his seven home Premier League matches against West Ham (D1).
- Manuel Pellegrini has won just one of his first six away Premier League matches as West Ham manager (W1 D2 L3) – he also won one of his first six as Man City manager (W1 D1 L4).
Odds correct at 1700 GMT on 29/11/18