The Nations League returns on Saturday with Germany and Spain in action. Tom Carnduff picks out two best bets at 15/2 and 8/5.
Recommended bets
1pt Spain to beat Switzerland and under 3.5 goals at 8/5
1pt e.w. Leon Goretzka to be first goalscorer in Germany v Ukraine at 15/2 (1/3 1-99)
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Switzerland v Spain
- 19:45 GMT on Sky Sports Football (Press Red)
- Match odds: Home 3/1 | Draw 12/5 | Away 10/11
Group 4 in League A has become quite competitive, although Ukraine's involvement at the top has challenged the expectations that Spain and Germany would be the ones battling for top spot. It is very likely to be one of those two finishing first, and Spain need to ensure their current one-point advantage doesn't disappear when they travel to Switzerland.
Recent results have been mixed for both sides here but Spain are better equipped to secure victory against the team who will be relegated to League B with anything less than win. Both of their points have come in draws against Germany; Spain secured a 1-0 win in Madrid last month.
Luis Enrique does have a few selection issues in the forward areas with Rodrigo out due to Covid and Ansu Fati sent for a lengthy spell on the sidelines but the positive is that they do have quality throughout and there are replacements available.
One feature of this Spain side is that many of their games don't particularly see a high amount of goals. Five of their six contests in 2020 have seen under 2.5 goals, while the game that went over that marker was the 4-0 hammering of Ukraine in September.
Switzerland have seen a few more goals across their games but the value comes in taking Spain to win with under 3.5 in the contest. The hosts did have that high-scoring game against Germany last month but their other five games this year have all seen three or less.
Of those games, three have seen a 2-1 scoreline in favour of the opposition but there is a chance we could see a similar outcome to the last time these two sides met. Enrique's Spain are used to playing out close contests and it wouldn't be a surprise to see this at 0-0 late on. Given their position in the table though, it's worth backing them to find a winner at some point.
The price stands at 8/5 on an away win with under 3.5 goals and that is good enough as it provides the 'safety net' of Switzerland striking - something they have been doing in this competition.
Score prediction: Switzerland 0-1 Spain (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Best bet: Spain to win and under 3.5 goals at 8/5
Germany v Ukraine
- 19:45 GMT on Sky Sports Football (Press Red)
- Match odds: Home 1/3 | Draw 4/1 | Away 7/1
Both sides will be hoping for a Spain slip-up in Switzerland but contrasting home and away form puts Germany in a good position for victory here. Die Mannschaft are unbeaten in their last seven at home, Ukraine have lost their last three away.
A much-changed Germany side beat the Czech Republic in a friendly on Wednesday but they will welcome back their 'big hitters' for the Ukraine contest with a number of players available only for the Nations League games. Manuel Neuer, Matthias Ginter, Serge Gnabry, Leon Goretzka, Joshua Kimmich, Toni Kroos, Leroy Sané and Timo Werner are likely to be selected on Saturday.
Whether they opt for a trio in midfield remains to be seen but whatever happens, there is a great chance that Goretzka will be playing in an advanced position and that makes his 15/2 odds on the first goal worth backing. He scored in the win in Kyiv last month.
Despite playing in a deeper role for Bayern, Goretzka has scored four goals in nine appearances across all competitions. He has seen at least one shot in each of his Bundesliga games while there have been four across his two Nations League outings this season. In two Champions League games, Goretzka has had five.
Germany should expect to find the net too. You have to go back to a Nations League clash with Netherlands in 2018 for the last time that they failed to score. Since then, in 19 outings across all competitions, Germany have scored at least once.
Ukraine's last three away have seen 13 goals conceded, although it should be noted that two of those games were friendlies. However, they have conceded seven in their four Nations League games so far and, of course, Germany put two past them in their last meeting.
A Germany win with both teams scoring is 6/4 which looks a better outright option than the 1/3 on a home win. The 1-0 win over the Czech Republic put an end to the six-game run of conceding which highlights their own defensive problems. Instead of looking at the result, the best bet in this one can be found in taking Goretzka to score first at 15/2, making his each-way value a generous 5/2.
Score prediction: Germany 2-1 Ukraine (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Odds correct at 1215 GMT (12/11/20)
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