The FA Cup third round is upon us, with Premier League and Championship teams now involved. George Pitts looks for value and potential upsets.
2pts Time of first Man City goal v Port Vale - 0-10 minutes at 21/10
1pt Steven Fletcher to score anytime in Brighton v Sheff Weds at 13/5
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
They may be in separate divisions, but just seven places separate these two sides, which shows just how contrastingly their seasons are going.
Villa, who also have the distraction of a Carabao Cup semi-final later this month, are fighting for their lives in the Premier League after a disappointing first half of the season.
Dean Smith's side have boosted their survival hopes with two wins in their last three, moving out of the relegation zone by a point. After a busy festive period, you could easily see Villa being much changed and, with injury problems of their own, and you could also see them coming unstuck here.
How they would love a centre forward like Aleksandar Mitrovic in the second half of the season. The Serbian could be key for the hosts.
Scott Parker's side have lost just one of their last four and momentum will be key for their play-off hopes with so many sides pushing the top six. At odds-against, they could be worth considering.
Best bet: Fulham to win at 6/5
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Danny Cowley has collected seven wins and six draws since coming in as Huddersfield boss in September to steer them out of the relegation zone.
The former Lincoln boss has history of pulling off giant killings, with wins over Ipswich, Brighton and Burnley in 2016/17 when his side were in the National League. They reached the quarter-finals of this competition, even keeping Arsenal out for 45 minutes at the Emirates before the Gunners' quality eventually showed in the second half of a 5-0 win.
Huddersfield travel to a Southampton side whose league form has improved to take them up to 12th, but rotation could easily disrupt their flow and seeing them crash out here would be no great surprise.
In our exclusive chat with the 41-year-old in November, Cowley told us how they split the game into segments against these bigger sides in order to nullify the opposition. They are a tempting 13/2 to win but goals have proved be an issue for the Terriers which is why we will avoid that one.
But with the segmented approach in mind, backing a half-time draw at around 7/5 looks well worth considering - or a draw at 30 minutes at just under evens. Huddersfield will be no pushovers.
Best bet: Half-time draw at 7/5
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Graham Potter's Brighton are currently just four points above the Premier League drop zone and, while they should be fine come May, you cannot rule them out of a relegation battle.
Therefore, this is another game where priorities could become clear. While Brighton enjoyed a run to the semi-finals under Chris Hughton, it remains to be seen how strongly they will go for this and Garry Monk will be looking for a reaction from his Owls side after three consecutive defeats over the festive period, dropping them to seventh in the Sky Bet Championship.
Goals have been an issue for Wednesday in recent games, with defender Tom Lees netting two of their last three (the other being from the penalty spot). But, with the Seagulls likely to hand some fringe players opportunities, the visitors could at least earn a replay so backing them on a +1 handicap at odds-against price is worth considering.
Their 12-goal top scorer is Steven Fletcher, who made his first appearance since mid-December on New Year's Day against Hull. This is a great chance for him to regain fitness and in that recent second-half cameo he hit the woodwork.
Wednesday can at least score at the Amex and Scottish international Fletcher, who averages nearly three shots per game this term, is an appealing 13/5 to find the back of the net anytime.
Best bet: Steven Fletcher to score anytime at 13/5
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An intriguing all-Championship tie at Griffin Park, where Stoke are likely overpriced at 4/1 to win - staggering price for two sides in the same division, which has proven to be incredibly unpredictable week by week.
Potters boss Michael O'Neill hopes his side have turned a corner and can start the year afresh after a difficult 2019. They impressively hit five past Huddersfield in their New Year's Day win - the fifth of his tenure to take Stoke out of the bottom three.
Brentford, meanwhile, are third in the league having lost just one of their last six but they are indeed beatable. They lost at home to Huddersfield, another side scrapping near the bottom, in November and were beaten at Millwall last weekend.
With Thomas Frank's side firmly focused on staying in the top six and Stoke looking to keep the feel-good factor going, the visitors are worth considering - particularly in the draw no bet market at 5/2.
Best bet: Stoke in draw no bet at 5/2
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The Premier League's worst away team comes up against the Sky Bet Championship's best home side - and their former manager. A home win would be far from a shock and the betting reflects it, with Norwich travelling to Deepdale as 11/5 shots.
Alex Neil's North End are fancied to come out on top though and 13/10 is a perfectly appealing price. Even though the Canaries were the Championship's best side last season, Preston triumphed 3-1 in this fixture and their opponents are currently on an eight-game winless run.
Neil, who guided Norwich to the top flight via the play-offs in 2014/15, is looking to do the same with Preston and, on a shoestring budget compared to their promotion rivals, he is certainly getting the best out of his squad. They are currently ninth and that is largely down to their home form having collected 29 of their 39 points at Deepdale.
It could also be worth backing Sean Maguire to net anytime. The forward has the highest shots-per-game average of any Preston player this season with just over two, he has five goals to his name for club and country and, if Preston are to score, the Republic of Ireland international is a prime candidate.
Best bet: Sean Maguire to score anytime at 11/5
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Bournemouth have been woeful of late, winning just one of their last 10, and Eddie Howe's side are serious candidates to be relegated from the Premier League.
While it can be said these games are not good for struggling teams, it can be seen as a timely distraction and a chance to get that winning feeling again. Luton are the Championship's bottom side, and for Howe this might just be an important step on the road to recovery.
The Cherries' plight comes as no real surprise after struggling to find consistency in the whole of 2019 and they have been incredibly unfortunate with injuries. It's possible that the combination of returning players and one or two good results gets them right back on track.
Howe, though, has been guilty of making mass changes for cup games in previous years, with a second-string side losing at home to Brighton last year, at Wigan in 17/18, and 3-0 at Millwall in 16/17.
In the Carabao Cup this season, Howe's much-changed side - which could be similar to his XI for this clash - were taken to penalties by fourth-tier Forest Green before being dumped out by third-tier Burton in the next round.
With all of this in mind, backing the Hatters on a +2 handicap at a fraction under evens is very much appealing.
Graeme Jones' side have struggled in the last couple of months but they should up the effort against Premier League opposition and Howe could pay the price again.
Best bet: Luton +2 handicap at 3/4
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Port Vale travel to the Etihad priced at 45/1 to come out victorious and that demonstrates just how big the task in hand is for them.
The Valiants are 10th in Sky Bet League Two and face the FA Cup holders who rarely hold back against the lesser teams - at this stage last year they hit seven past Rotherham at the Etihad and it could easily be something close to that figure once again if Pep Guardiola's side are on song. In fact, they are odds-on to score more than five. So how do you find value in this one?
One market to explore is the time of the first goal. It was a trusty one for us in Man City games last season, with them regularly starting well, and you can get them at bigger than 2/1 to score in the first 10 minutes here.
No matter how much Guardiola rotates his squad, they will still be incredibly strong and possibly even boosted by the return of Aymeric Laporte. You can only see this going one way and the hosts getting off to a good start with the inevitable opener is a well-priced find.
Best bet: Time of first Man City goal - 0-10 minutes at 21/10
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Keep an eye on Sporting Life for more FA Cup coverage including further tips for Sunday and Monday's action. And, throughout January, stick with us for all the best transfer window coverage with a daily blog here and done deals from across the Premier League, Sky Bet EFL and Europe here.
Odds correct as of 1400 GMT on 02/01/20
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