Bundesliga: Weekend preview with best bets and odds for matches on Saturday May 16

Recommended bets

2pts Borussia Dortmund (-1 handicap) to beat Schalke at 7/5

1pt Jamilu Collins to be shown a card in Fortuna Dusseldorf v Paderborn at 13/5

1pt Borussia Monchengladbach to win and over 2.5 goals in the match at 12/5

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Eintracht Frankfurt v Borussia Monchengladbach (1730 BST kick-off)

A solid fixture to conclude Saturday's return for football as big title outsiders Borussia Monchengladbach take on Eintracht Frankfurt.

A positive of Monchengladbach's season has been that they've managed to avoid entering streaky patches of form which could hinder a side with top-four aspirations.

An even bigger positive has been their results since the winter break. Eintracht Frankfurt's three wins from four to begin this half of the season is one of the best in the division, but Monchengladbach can better it with just two defeats in their eight games since mid-January.

The visitors have one of the most exciting, young squads in the Bundesliga. The focus is often on Bayern and Dortmund, and rightly so to some degree, but Monchengladbach's achievements in creating a team which plays positive football and gets results shouldn't be overlooked.

It creates opportunities at both ends of the pitch too, which is hugely beneficial for the neutral. Each of their seven games since the 2-0 defeat to Schalke on the first game back from the winter break has seen both teams scoring.

The same cannot be said for Frankfurt, but three of their last four games seeing one team score at least four goals gives hopes that this game will result in the overs being worth backing.

The home side's form over the last four games has been bizarre. Not many teams follow-up a 5-0 victory (v Augsburg) with a 4-0 hammering (v Dortmund) in their next fixture. Just two games later, they suffered a similar fate against Leverkusen.

Given those results against the teams towards the top-end of the table, it should be expected that Monchengladbach walk away with all three points on offer.

Then there is the advantage that Monchengladbach hold over the majority of other Bundesliga teams in that they have already played behind closed doors this season.

Their victory over Koln in the last game played in the league before the enforced stoppage came without spectators. A surreal atmosphere may be hard for some to adjust to, but the visitors already have that experience under their belt.

Monchengladbach's form in front of goal has been positive enough but there remains some frustration that they have not reached their true figure in terms of matching their creativity.

They've got 49 on their tally so far but their xG throughout the course of the season stands at 55.30. That gives them the biggest negative performance in this category across the entire Bundesliga.

So while they have been hitting the net regularly across this part of the season, there will be a belief that they could have had more. That makes them a team to consider for high-scoring contests across the next nine gameweeks.

Of course, that includes this weekend and, while the 11/8 best price on an away victory is appealing, it's worth squeezing out that extra value in backing a Monchengladbach win with goals.

Score prediction: Eintracht Frankfurt 1-2 Borussia Monchengladbach (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)

Best bet: Borussia Monchengladbach to win and over 2.5 goals in the match at 12/5

Sporting Life Price Boost: Alassane Plea, Marcus Thuram and Filip Kostic to have 7+ shots on target between them - was 7/1, NOW 9/1

Opta facts

• After winning both Bundesliga matches against Gladbach in 2017/18, Frankfurt have not won any of their last three games against the Foals (D1, L2).
• Frankfurt have only won more Bundesliga matches against Werder (35) than they have against Gladbach (34).
• After going unbeaten in four Bundesliga matches (W3, D1), Frankfurt have lost each of their last three in the league (aggregate scoreline: 1-10). They last went on a longer losing run in the BL in February/March 2017 (5).
• Frankfurt have taken 28 points from 24 Bundesliga games. They last had as few points at this stage in 2015/16 (23), when they only managed to avoid relegation after defeating Nürnberg in the play-off.
• Frankfurt have scored 27 goals and conceded 16 in their 12 Bundesliga home games this season (W6, D3, L3) – equalling their record from this stage last term.
• Gladbach have taken 49 points from the first 25 Bundesliga matches of the season (same as in their title-winning campaign of 1974/75). They’ve only managed more at this stage in 1983/84 (50; finished third) and 1969/70 (60; champions), converted to three points per win in both cases.
• Gladbach have scored in each of their last seven Bundesliga matches, but have also failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last eight league games. Only Augsburg are on a longer wait for a shutout (9).
• After going five Bundesliga away games without a win (D2, L3), Gladbach have won both their last two matches on the road. The Foals have taken 20 points from their first 12 BL away games – they last managed more in 1974/75 (22).
• Three of Patrick Herrmann’s five assists this Bundesliga season have set up Breel Embolo. No other Gladbach player has provided as many BL assists for a teammate in 2019/20.
• Gladbach’s Oscar Wendt is on the cusp of his 100th Bundesliga win – all of his previous 99 have come with the Foals. The Swede could become the first foreign-born player to reach this milestone with the Foals.

Borussia Dortmund v Schalke

There's little doubt that most of the attention will be on this fixture as the Bundesliga makes a return.

The Revierderby is the fiercest in Germany but there will be the unusual feel of being without those who truly drive the rivalry the most on matchday - the fans.

It's something that not only Dortmund and Schalke but the entire of the Bundesliga will have to get used to over the next nine gameweeks. With no fans to provide the atmosphere, it's up to the players to give these types of fixtures that added spark.

That's not to say that this is a fixture that will be dominated by cards and ill-discipline and there is a case to made for siding with the odds-against value of backing less than 50 booking points. We should still expect a contest with real quality on show.

Dortmund's 1/2 price for victory here needs little further explanation. They boast the best home record in the Bundesliga and come up against a Schalke side who are struggling for form and haven't performed as well as they would have hoped away from home.

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What is appealing is their value when it comes to victory with a margin. Dortmund on the -1 handicap is odds-against across the board, which looks too good to turn down in this particular contest.

We should expect some major differences from the 0-0 draw back in October. Schalke boasted more shots than Dortmund on that day but neither side could find the net.

At home, Lucien Favre's men will be eager to ensure that there won't be a repeat. Dominating possession, as they did 57% to 43% in the reverse fixture, will be towards the top of the priorities list as will outshooting their opponents.

Dortmund sit fourth overall when it comes to average shots on target per game, dropping down to sixth for average shots, but that still leaves them well clear of Schalke who are 16th in both categories.

It's hardly a surprise when you look at the sheer quality in Dortmund's attack. The likes of Jadon Sancho, Julian Brandt, Marco Reus and Thorgan Hazard posed enough of a threat before the January arrival of the prolific Erling Haaland.

One positive of the Bundesliga when it comes to assessing how teams can react following a number of weeks without football is the winter break.

Looking at the records of teams since mid-January could give us an indication on what to expect this weekend. In this case, the two sides are miles apart.

Schalke may have won their first game back against Monchengladbach, but since then it has been seven games without victory; a run that includes 5-0 defeats against Bayern Munich and Leipzig.

For Dortmund, they've won seven of their eight contests and the defeat came as they were edged out in a seven-goal thriller at Leverkusen. Remarkably, they've also scored at least three goals in five of those games.

The Asian Handicap sitting at -1 in Dortmund's favour shows that the money is behind a convincing home victory here. Even without fans in attendance, it should be those in yellow and black who will be bouncing come Saturday night.

Score prediction: Borussia Dortmund 2-0 Schalke (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Best bet: Borussia Dortmund (-1 handicap) to beat Schalke at 7/5

Opta facts

• This will be the 180th Revierderby. Borussia Dortmund have only won one of the last eight meetings (2-1 at Schalke in December 2018). The last derby in Dortmund saw S04 win 4-2 – BVB’s only Bundesliga home loss under Lucien Favre.
• Borussia Dortmund were only one point ahead of Schalke before their first meeting this Bundesliga season (0-0), whereas 14 points now separate the two sides. BVB’s Erling Haaland (9) has scored more than double the amount of goals Schalke (4) have managed since the winter break so far.
• FC Schalke 04 have only scored once in their last 387 minutes of Bundesliga football (Weston McKennie last time out vs. Hoffenheim). BVB have netted 10 times in this timeframe.
• Borussia Dortmund could pick up their 800th Bundesliga win in the upcoming Revierderby, while Schalke could let in their 2,500th Bundesliga goal (currently 2,499).
• Borussia Dortmund won 2-1 at Gladbach last time out in Bundesliga, which was their seventh victory from eight games since the break. They are now second in the table for the first time since matchday 10.
• After their 1-1 draw against Hoffenheim, Schalke are without a win in their last seven Bundesliga games (D4 L3) – a longer wait than any other Bundesliga side.
• Schalke are without a win in their last six Bundesliga away games (D3 L3) – longer than any other side. They last endured a longer winless streak on the road between February and May 2015 (9 games).
• Schalke have failed to score in all four of their Bundesliga away games in 2020 – this last happened between September and November 2001. The Royal Blues last went on a longer goalless streak away from home between April and September 1998 (5 games).
• Dortmund’s Jadon Sancho has had a hand in at least one goal in his last eight Bundesliga games. He has been directly involved in more Bundesliga goals than any other player this season (29; 14 goals, 15 assists).
• Schalke’s Amine Harit has been directly involved in more Bundesliga goals than any other team-mate this term (6 goals, 4 assists), but hasn’t had a hand in a goal in his last nine games (S04 haven’t won any of those matches). The Royal Blues have won every game in which he has been involved in a goal (7).

Fortuna Dusseldorf v Paderborn

This is likely to be the fixture with the lowest amount of viewers from Saturday's options but it's arguably the most important given the current standings.

Paderborn's return to the Bundesliga looks like it will be short-lived unless they somehow find a ten-point swing over the next nine games to propel themselves to safety.

In Dusseldorf, they come up against another side fighting to avoid the drop, although they are currently in the spot that provides a form of safety net in the relegation play-off.

Paderborn are an anomaly when it comes to newly-promoted teams in that they've seen more success on the road than they have in front of their own supporters this season. Nine of their 16 points have come away from home.

We use the term 'success' loosely because there's little positive to shout about when it comes to dissecting their 2019/20 campaign.

There is a strong case to be made with backing the home team for the three points here, although the best bet comes in the cards market, which we'll come to shortly.

Paderborn's issues with creativity have gone hand-in-hand with defensive problems and it's left them well adrift of those who currently have the comfort of sitting outside the relegation zone.

Maybe we are doing them a slight disservice because they pushed Bayern Munich close on both occasions, while there have been narrow defeats against Leipzig and Leverkusen too.

In Paderborn's case though, the table doesn't lie and we should expect another defeat here. Their actual position reflects the xG and xPTS.

The key to this contest will be down one side of the pitch, that being Paderborn's left and Dusseldorf's right. The home side have demonstrated their tendency to attack down this flank, while the same can be said for the visitors and the left.

The wide areas are a preferred route of attack for both teams and, despite victory for Paderborn in the meeting between these two in the first half of the season, Dusseldorf should come out on top in the battle for the flanks.

Dusseldorf and Paderborn play with an aggressive edge and that is reflected in the disciplinary charts; the visitors sit fourth for cards this season while Dusseldorf lead the way with 63 yellows.

Combine the desire to win the wide battles with poor discipline this season and we should have a game with cards, particularly for those players down Paderborn's left.

That's where the focus is on Jamilu Collins. The Paderborn left-back has six yellows and a red on his tally this season but his passion for tackling is why he continues to hold a defensive spot in this side.

It's little surprise to see Paderborn leading the way for average successful tackles per game, also leading to them sitting high in the cards charts, and Collins more than contributes his fair share.

The 25-year-old Nigeria international sits fourth for average tackles per game among Bundesliga players with 2.9, while his 1.5 average fouls over 90 minutes also put him towards the top-end of the division.

When we look at this fixture, it appears to be one where Collins will be regularly called into action as Dusseldorf looks to play down their preferred flank.

An indication of that comes in the six tackles he made in the reverse fixture, of which only two were successful, making it one of the lowest returns for complete tackles across the course of Collins' season.

At odds of above 5/2, pushing towards 3/1, the value is certainly with backing Collins to be carded in a game that ultimately ends in defeat for Paderborn.

Score prediction: Fortuna Dusseldorf 2-1 Paderborn (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)

Best bet: Jamilu Collins to be shown a card at 13/5

Opta facts

• Fortuna Düsseldorf have won just one of their last 10 league games against SC Paderborn (D4 L5), 2-1 in Paderborn in April 2014 in Bundesliga 2. SCP won their first Bundesliga meeting with Fortuna in the reverse fixture this term (2-0).
• Paderborn have won each of their last three competitive games away against Fortuna (all in BL2). SCP have never won four away games in a row against any team in professional football.
• Düsseldorf have lost each of their last three competitive home games against Paderborn. Fortuna have only lost more consecutive home matches in professional football against Bayern (5) and VfB Stuttgart (4).
• Fortuna have lost just one of their six Bundesliga games under head coach Uwe Rösler (W1 D4): a 1-4 defeat to Gladbach on matchday 22. They’ve scored in each of these six matches.
• 22 points from 25 games represents Fortuna’s second-worst points haul at this stage of a Bundesliga season. They’ve only been worse off at this point in 1986/87 (19 points; relegated).
• Düsseldorf are without a win in their last four Bundesliga home games (D2, L2). They last had a longer winless run at home between November 2016 and May 2017 (11 matches in Bundesliga 2).
• Paderborn have lost their last four Bundesliga games. They last had a similar losing run in September/October this season, when they suffered five defeats on the bounce.
• Paderborn are six points behind Düsseldorf in 16th place. Since the introduction of three points per win, no Bundesliga team has been able to make up such a deficit to the relegation play-off spot after 25 matches.
• Düsseldorf’s Kenan Karaman scored his fourth Bundesliga goal of the season in Mainz last time out – a new personal best. The 26-year-old has netted five of his seven Bundesliga goals for Fortuna at home.
• Paderborn’s Dennis Srbeny has lost all four Bundesliga games in which he has scored. No player in Bundesliga history has ever lost the first five matches in which he has scored.

Read Sunday's Bundesliga preview

Odds correct at 1200 BST (14/05/20)

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