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Premier League tips: Predictions and best bets for Saturday's fixtures

Football

Sat August 25, 2018 · 6y ago

George Pitts runs through the best bets, Super 6 predictions and top stats for each of Saturday's 3pm Premier League encounters.

Recommended bets

2pts Arsenal to win and BTTS at 17/10

1pt Everton (draw no bet) at 51/50

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Arsenal v West Ham United

Two sides in transition after beginning new eras this summer, and both are still searching for their first Premier League win of the season.

Unai Emery's Arsenal were unfortunate to lose last time out after performing well at Chelsea, losing 3-2 despite coming from two goals down, while Manuel Pellegrini's West Ham threw away a lead to lose at home to Bournemouth.

The Gunners may feel downhearted after Marcos Alonso's late goal at Stamford Bridge, but there were plenty of positives to take from that game and that is why we are backing them to get the win on Saturday.

Granted, the stats show West Ham have had a couple of enjoyable visits to the Emirates in previous years, but they are still gluing together after all change this summer whereas you can see things actually clicking at Arsenal.

Arsenal's expected goals tally for the season (2.65 from open play) shows their creativity is there and with the likes of Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Mesut Ozil supplying, goals will come. A goals against rate of 2.81 comes after a difficult start against Manchester City and Chelsea and you would expect their defence to improve as they grow into the campaign, but clearly they remain somewhat vulnerable at the back.

With these numbers in mind, Arsenal to win and both teams to score at 17/10 provides better value than Arsenal and over 2.5 goals (4/5), while Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang in a score-and-win double at evens could also be worth backing with the Gabon forward eager to get off the mark.

Super 6 prediction: Arsenal 3-1 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)

Best Bet: Arsenal to win and BTTS at 17/10

Key Opta Stats

Arsenal have lost one of their last 22 matches against West Ham in all competitions (W17 D4), losing 2-0 on the opening day of the 2015-16 season.
West Ham United have won five away Premier League matches at Arsenal (three at Highbury, two at the Emirates) – only Liverpool (7) and Man Utd (8) have won more.
Should Arsenal suffer a defeat in this match, they’ll have lost their opening three league games in a season for the first time since 1954-55 and for only the fifth time ever (also 1923-24, 1921-22 and 1895-96).
West Ham United have lost their first two games of the Premier League season and should they suffer a defeat in this match, they’ll have lost their opening three league games of a season for the third time this decade (after 2010-11 & 2017-18) after doing this just five times between 1920 and 2010.
Only Manchester City (50) won more points at home than Arsenal (47, level with Manchester United) in the Premier League last season.
Unai Emery faced Manuel Pellegrini on 10 occasions in La Liga, winning three, drawing three and losing four – Emery won his two most recent home league matches against the Chilean, doing so in January 2011 (Valencia 4-3 Malaga) and December 2011 (Valencia 2-0 Malaga).

Bournemouth v Everton

Bournemouth will be hoping to make it three from three in the new Premier League season when they welcome an unbeaten Everton to the Vitality Stadium.

Eddie Howe's side started with victories over Cardiff (h) and West Ham (a), while Everton drew at Wolves on the opening day before edging past Southampton at Goodison Park last week.

The Cherries have done superbly, but we expect them to come undone here as Marco Silva's new-look Toffees roll into town.

We correctly predicted Richarlison in a score-and-win double last week at 11/2 and the Brazilian is 4/1 this time around - which would make it three consecutive matches scoring for his new team.

On the other side, Callum Wilson has started in the same fashion with two goals in as many appearances, including a stunning solo effort at the London Stadium. Wilson is 7/4 anytime, 7/1 in a both players to score double with Richarlison which could be worth a small bet.

A more eye-catching bet for the clash though is Everton to win in a draw no bet market, providing you with added insurance - available at a best price of 51/50.

Super 6 prediction: AFC Bournemouth 1-2 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)

Best Bet: Draw no bet - Everton at 51/50

Key Opta Stats

Bournemouth have won two of their three home Premier League matches against Everton, drawing the other.
The six Premier League meetings between Bournemouth and Everton have produced 25 goals (11 for Bournemouth, 14 for Everton).
Bournemouth will be looking to win their opening three league games in a season for the sixth time & the first time since 2009-10. They’ve never achieved this in the top two tiers of English league football, however.
Richarlison has scored in both of his Premier League games for Everton so far; two goals at Wolves on MD1 and one goal versus Southampton on MD2. He’ll be looking to become just the second Everton player to score in each of his first three Premier League appearances for the club after Romelu Lukaku.
Everton manager Marco Silva has won just 16 points from 22 Premier League away games as a manager (W4 D4 L14), averaging 0.73 points per game – his average points per game record at home in the competition as a manager is 1.59 points per game.
Bournemouth’s Callum Wilson scored in three consecutive Premier League appearances for the first time following his goal versus West Ham last week – he last scored in four in a row in league competition in October 2014.

Huddersfield v Cardiff

Sergio Aguero scores for Manchester City against Huddersfield

One you would not expect to see first on the Match of the Day running order, as the two favourites for relegation meet at the John Smith's Stadium.

Huddersfield, among last season's lowest scorers in the Premier League, come up against a Cardiff side who are yet to find the back of the net in the top flight this term and the initial thought for this is a low-scoring draw.

It is often a bad time to play a side immediately after a thrashing and David Wagner will have had his Terriers squad working hard to put the 6-1 defeat at Manchester City behind them. Therefore, they could well be tough to break down as they look to get points on the board for the first time this season.

There is an argument a double chance of Huddersfield-draw is a good bet even at 1/3, but the outright draw or unders on goals is more tempting.

The draw is available at a best price of 21/10, under 2.5 total goals at 4/7 while draw and under 2.5 goals gets you a good combined price of 13/5.

The statistics below point to quite a dour affair in West Yorkshire and, with performances so far combined with Neil Warnock's tactics, it is quite difficult to argue otherwise.

Super 6 prediction: Huddersfield 1-1 Cardiff (Sky Bet odds: 9/2)

Best Bet: Double chance - Huddersfield/draw at 1/3

Key Opta Stats

In all competitions, Huddersfield are winless in nine matches against Cardiff (D2 L7) since winning 1-0 in a third tier meeting in January 2003 with Andy Booth netting the winner.
Since their promotion to the Premier League in 2017, Huddersfield have failed to score in 22 of their 40 Premier League games – more than any other team in this period.
Cardiff City have failed to score in 12 of their 20 Premier League away games (60%) – only Brighton (65%) and opponents Huddersfield (65%) have drawn a blank in a higher share of their away matches in PL history.
This match will mean Neil Warnock has managed in this fixture in the top three divisions in England, managing Huddersfield against Cardiff in the third tier in 1993-94 and 199495, and Cardiff against Huddersfield in the Championship in 2016-17 – he has never lost in this fixture (P6 W4 D2 L0).
Huddersfield have scored just one goal in their last seven matches at the John Smith's Stadium in all competitions (W1 D1 L5), despite attempting 98 shots in those matches.

Southampton v Leicester

Sides led by two managers far from secure in their respective jobs, and Mark Hughes and Claude Puel could really do with wins regardless of it only being the third matchday of the season.

Southampton started with a goalless draw against Burnley before a resurgent performance in their defeat at Everton. A win for the Toffees was probably a fair result, but there were positives to take for Hughes including the performances of goalkeeper Alex McCarthy and summer signing Danny Ings.

The latter, making his first start since arriving from Liverpool, scored and looked impressive in front of watching England manager Gareth Southgate.

With Jamie Vardy suspended for this clash after his sending off against Wolves, Southampton may capitalise and Ings could be the England striker grabbing the headlines at St Mary's.

Ings is a best price of 40/17 anytime and a tempting 7/2 in a score-and-win double.

Leicester did get a good win over Wolves last time out after losing at Man United on their opening day, but it feels like they could miss Vardy's energy in the front line and come unstuck on the south coast against a Saints side who have at least shown some promise.

Super 6 prediction: Southampton 1-0 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)

Best Bet: Danny Ings to score and Southampton to win at 7/2

Key Opta Stats

Southampton lost this fixture 1-4 last season – their first top-flight home defeat vs Leicester since April 2000, and their heaviest home loss against them since October 1967 (1-5).
Leicester have never won back to back away league matches at Southampton – this is their 40th visit there (W4 D14 L21 previously).
Southampton have won just two of their 10 Premier League games under Mark Hughes, with five of these games ending in defeat (D3). Since their return to the top-flight in 2012, the only manager to win fewer games in his first 10 Premier League games in charge of Southampton is Nigel Adkins (1).
Leicester City have lost their last four away games in the Premier League. They last endured a longer losing away run in the competition between September and December 2014 (7 defeats), which also included a 0-2 defeat at Southampton.
Leicester City will be without the suspended Jamie Vardy; since the start of last season Vardy has scored 12 away Premier League goals, double that of any other player at the club.
Leicester City striker Kelechi Iheanacho has scored more Premier League goals versus Southampton than he has against any other side (3 in 4 appearances).