Leicester are given the nod to end Man City's fantastic run of home form as Matt Brocklebank and George Pitts preview Saturday's top-flight action.
Premier League recommended bets
2pts Tottenham to win and over 2.5 goals at 33/20
2pts Everton to beat Crystal Palace at 7/5
1pt Leicester draw-no-bet v Man City at 23/2
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Tottenham v Arsenal (1230 GMT, BT Sport)
A north London derby with obvious significance due to the fact that once again the two sides are battling it out for a spot in the Premier League's top four.
Tottenham may be facing Juventus in the last 16 of the Champions League on Tuesday, but they cannot afford to take their eye off the ball in the league.
Mauricio Pochettino’s men are fifth going into the match, a point behind Chelsea in fourth, while Arsenal are sixth and five points adrift of the Blues.
It almost goes without saying that key to Spurs' hopes of securing all three points is Harry Kane, who netted his 100th Premier League goal in the recent draw at Liverpool.
Arsenal managed to keep him quiet earlier in the season and Arsene Wenger will be hoping they can do the same again this time around.
The French boss admitted in his press conference that England forward Kane is probably the best striker in Europe, while Kane has said that being rejected by Arsenal as a youngster was "the best thing that ever happened to me".
Considering his impressive record of scoring six times in seven appearances against the Gunners, you would back him to find the back of the net.
All eyes will not just be on Kane though, as Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang makes his first north London derby appearance, fresh from a goal against Everton on his Arsenal bow. With Mesut Ozil and Henrikh Mkhitaryan – who knows the Gabon international’s game inside out – behind him, he should not be short of chances.
This fixture has produced at least two goals in each of the last eight meetings and, given the importance of the three points, attacking options on both sides and the spacious Wembley field, you would expect both teams to score in what should be another highly entertaining derby.
Prediction: Tottenham 2-1 Arsenal (George Pitts)
Best bet: Tottenham to win and over 2.5 goals at 17/10
Alternative: Harry Kane and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang to score in 90 minutes at 9/2
Everton v Crystal Palace (1500 GMT)
Palace just cannot catch a break at the minute when it comes to injuries. Bakary Sako was ruled out for the season last week and that has been followed up by the recent news star man Wilfried Zaha will be out for around a month – on top of Ruben Loftus-Cheek’s long-term setback.
Just as Roy Hodgson's side appeared to be climbing away from the relegation zone, they've been given another hurdle to overcome. They face an Everton side who have themselves slipped back down the table after a brief revival under Sam Allardyce, but vitally they still remain seven points clear of the bottom three.
You would expect both sides to retain their Premier League status come the end of the season, but they both need points on the board sooner rather than later.
Given Palace's injury woes heading to Goodison and their terrible record without Zaha, I'm backing Everton to come away with the victory. They were impressive at home to Leicester, before a shocking performance at Arsenal saw them ship five goals at the Emirates.
Allardyce will no doubt have been working hard on the training ground to bury that performance, as he comes up against another former club.
The Toffees have been struggling with injuries themselves, but Allardyce says the situation is now the best it has been since he replaced Ronald Koeman in November.
Theo Walcott, who came close to scoring on his return to Arsenal, is the danger man after netting a double against the Foxes. The forward is desperate to force his way into Gareth Southgate’s England reckoning for the World Cup and his pace and movement could be too much for a depleted Palace defence to handle.
The clash probably won’t live long in the memory, but the hosts will in all likelihood get the job done.
Prediction: Everton 2-0 Crystal Palace (GP)
Best bet: Everton to win at 7/5
Alternative: Theo Walcott to score and Everton to win at 4/1
Stoke v Brighton (1500 GMT)
Xherdan Shaqiri has generally disappointed me during his time at Stoke but there's no denying when he’s hot he’s hot and new manager Paul Lambert was impressed with his contribution in the 2-1 defeat at Bournemouth last weekend.
An arm around Shaqiri’s shoulder seemingly does him plenty of good and I wouldn't read too much into the fact eight of his 12 goals for Stoke have come away from home. He’s 17/2 to open the scoring in consecutive weeks and stands out as a potential spot of value if the Potters can keep things tight at the other end.
That's far from certain given how many goals Stoke have conceded this season but recent evidence suggests Lambert has made them a little harder to break down – standard firefighting practice for any manager taking over a struggling side mid-season – and a home win to nil has been backed into 9/4 from slightly bigger prices earlier in the week.
Brighton are in pretty good nick but are among the top flight’s lowest scorers and that’s in spite of a 3-1 win over West Ham on Saturday.
Confidence should be high but Chis Hughton’s team have lost eight games on the road and the couple of wins came at West Ham and Swansea when those two were in dreadful form at the time.
Stoke are just about in good enough shape to make home advantage count and bring themselves level on points with the Seagulls.
Super 6 prediction: Stoke 2-0 Brighton (Matt Brocklebank)
Swansea v Burnley (1500 GMT)
There’s been a buzz about the Liberty Stadium ever since Carlos Carvalhal was given the job and Tuesday night’s 8-1 drubbing of Notts County in the FA Cup will only have fanned the flames of expectation in terms of Premier League survival.
That freak result aside, the Swans are back to doing what they do best – namely keeping the ball and playing a high-tempo, passing style which inevitably creates plenty of goalscoring opportunities.
And despite losing last season’s 15-goal man Fernando Llorente to Spurs right at the end of the summer window and Wilfried Bony to long-term injury more recently, they've started converting those chances and head into Saturday's clash with Burnley having found the net at least once in their last seven matches.
An important factor of the midweek cakewalk was that Tammy Abraham got back in the groove with a couple of goals, his first in any competition since mid-October, and while his overall contribution has remained of a fairly decent level, there's nothing like putting the ball in the net for a centre forward's confidence.
He played the full match but seems likely to start again with Andre Ayew waiting in the wings for his second Swans debut after returning to the club from West Ham.
His brother Jordan has scored five in his last 11 appearances and may still be a shade underestimated in the anytime market at odds in excess of 3/1.
But for a bet I'm delving slightly deeper and backing a score draw at 4/1.
Burnley have ground out 1-1 draws with Newcastle (away) and Man City (home) in their last two outings and they've played out six score draws in the league in total.
Only half of Swansea’s six draws have seen both sides scoring but two of those have come in the past month under the new boss and I just feel they may be vulnerable favourites at 6/4 on the back of that midweek stroll.
Sean Dyche's physical Burnley pose an altogether different test as they'e already avoided defeat at Tottenham, Liverpool and Man United this term. It’s not hard to envisage another hard-fought 1-1 draw which is 11/2 favourite in the correct score market, but I want the other permutations on side too so will play a little safer.
Super 6 prediction: Swansea 1-1 Burnley (MB)
West Ham v Watford (1500 GMT)
Three points between the sides in the Premier League table, each has recorded one win in their last six and unsurprisingly the layers have this as a pretty close call.
West Ham edge favouritism in the match market, with the draw no bigger than 12/5, and that looks just about fair based on their home form, which isn’t that bad at all in the past couple of months, combined with the visitors' ropy recent away record.
West Ham's 3-2 defeat against Newcastle on December 23 is their most recent loss at the London Stadium, since when they've beaten West Brom (plus Shrewsbury in the FA Cup) and drawn with Bournemouth and Crystal Palace.
David Moyes will have been fuming with how they capitulated at Brighton last weekend after getting level before the break and I'd certainly expect a reaction of some kind, despite the injury situation remaining a problem.
It's obviously early days for Watford boss Javi Gracia but a draw at Stoke and Monday’s 4-1 win over champions Chelsea bodes well for this one, especially as they won the reverse fixture 2-0 earlier in the season.
Former Everton and Barcelona winger Gerard Deulofeu was particularly bright against the Blues and should at least carve out a few opportunities for Troy Deeney and co, though Deulofeu himself has already been well found in the anytime scorer market at no bigger than 7/2 after his strike on Monday.
No goalscorer looks big at 10/1 given how West Ham are likely to play after shipping three last week but neither defence is convincing enough to make me pull the trigger and in short there appears to be more inviting opportunities elsewhere on the day.
Prediction: West Ham 0-0 Watford (MB)
Manchester City v Leicester (1730 GMT)
A seriously busy spell for Man City continues with the visit of Leicester and I’m happy to get the visitors on side in some capacity here despite the very real possibility that Pep Guardiola’s side could make this preview look entirely ridiculous.
Some quality players missing through injury and the return of the Champion League looming in midweek are small factors admittedly, but basically it's Leicester's recent record against the Citizens that gives me so much encouragement they could be the ones to end the hosts' phenomenal home record that stretches back 25 matches.
In the past three seasons Leicester have won two, drawn two and lost two against the long odds-on favourites and while the Riyad Mahrez situation is exactly what they could have done without, Fousseni Diabate has made a fine impression in the Algerian's absence and it's Jamie Vardy who has done a lot of the damage in this fixture in recent years.
The England man has scored four times in his last four appearances against City and he’s looked close to something like his best lately with three in his last three games. Two of those have come from the penalty spot but he's back making the darting runs in behind defences that tend to cause City so many problems.
Leicester remain one of the most dangerous counter-attacking teams in the league and if they can get enough players in support of the striker then I strongly fancy them to score. In all likelihood Vardy will be ably assisted by Kelechi Iheanacho, who looks close to his first Premier League goal for Leicester and may feel he has something to prove at the Etihad having been deemed surplus to requirements.
Claude Puel’s team are sure to need more than a single goal if they’re to emerge with all three points and defy quotes as big as 16/1, but City have looked eminently breachable again since that defeat to Liverpool and there's likely to be more rotation at the back with new signing Aymeric Laporte set to return to the team.
I like Puel from a tactical point of view and if City are starting to feel a little jaded, or even have half an eye on Basel on Tuesday night, they could be made to pay.
City are the better team – we know that – and Kevin De Bruyne’s unbelievably accurate passing can unlock any defence in an instant, but if there's a home game in which I've been waiting to oppose City then it's this one and 11/1 draw-no-bet is a bit of an insult to the 2016 champions.
Prediction: Manchester City 1-2 Leicester (MB)
Best Bet: Leicester draw-no-bet at 11/1
Alternative: Leicester/Draw double chance at 19/5
Posted at 0900 GMT on 09/02/18.
