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Free football betting tips: Preview of Saturday's Premier League games
Ben Coley provides his best bets for Saturday's Premier League games, including a 33/1 first goalscorer selection.
Saturday's best bets
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Chelsea v Leicester (1500 GMT)
Two sides who added an unwelcome game to the schedule with goalless FA Cup draws last weekend can be expected to produce an altogether livelier affair at Stamford Bridge.
Chelsea came unstuck again on Wednesday, failing to convert any one of 21 attempts against Arsenal, but it looks to me as though they will soon find a victim and it could be Leicester, against whom they're on a four-match winning run.
The visitors are right up where they should be on the fringes of the top six and their away form is good; after losing at Old Trafford in late August, they went on a lengthy unbeaten run which only ended on Boxing Day. Two subsequent defeats have halted their momentum but the Foxes led at both Watford and Liverpool and are capable of testing Chelsea, too, especially with Jamie Vardy having been passed fit.
Still, the early money for Chelsea should be rewarded. They're extremely reliable at Stamford Bridge and looked in good nick against Arsenal, who very much rode their luck for all that they threatened on the break. While Leicester can be expected to create chances, Chelsea will have more than enough to win the game.
Much has been made of Alvaro Morata's relative struggles and while I expect him to gain reward for his efforts any day now, 8/11 that he scores is plainly short enough and preference is for three or more Chelsea goals, offered at 6/5.
If Morata's run does continue the first goalscorer market might offer some value and Antonio Rudiger is the one to be on at a generous 33/1.
The German has already scored first three times since signing for Chelsea this summer, each via a header at Stamford Bridge.
What's interesting is that Chelsea are among the league's best for goals scored in such a fashion, while Leicester's issues defending high balls into the box are well-documented. Claude Puel hasn't managed to overcome the problem which is in fact two-fold, with the Foxes conceding more corners than most and also guilty of giving away cheap free-kicks.
Rudiger spoke on Thursday of how he expects Morata to click sooner rather than later, but could be the one to step in should the Spaniard fail to do so here.
Super 6 prediction: Chelsea 3-1 Leicester
Best bet: Antonio Rudiger to score first at 33/1
Alternative: Chelsea to score three or more at 6/5
Crystal Palace v Burnley (1500)
After a tough Christmas schedule which almost saw them end Manchester City's winning run, perhaps we shouldn't have been surprised that an under-strength Crystal Palace side failed to raise a leg at Brighton on Monday night.
Once upon a time, a 'local' derby in the third round of the FA Cup, under lights and in front of the cameras, would've been enough to ensure a full-strength team and commitment from the off. Instead, we were presented with a patched-up Palace who only hauled themselves into the game thanks to a wonder strike from Bakary Sako before that work was undone with some shoddy defending late on.
Roy Hodgson might have made only four changes from the hard-fought win at Southampton, but the absence of Luka Milivojevic, Wilfried Zaha and Christian Benteke robbed his side of any kind of attacking cohesion, reliant instead on Sako's head-down-run-hard approach. However, with those three set to return, perhaps along with Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Palace have been supported to beat a Burnley side enduring a rare difficult run.
Closer inspection reveals that Burnley's performances don't appear to have dipped significantly in what's been a winless four weeks, but facing Tottenham, both Manchester clubs, Liverpool and a derby with Huddersfield might just have softened them up sufficiently for Palace to land the gamble.
At the prices - the home side are all the way into evens - there's just no incentive to join in. Burnley are very good in these games and if Palace are to gain revenge for a 1-0 defeat in the reverse, chances are they will have had to work extremely hard for it.
Super 6 prediction: Crystal Palace 2-1 Burnley
Best bet: Crystal Palace to win by one goal at 13/5
Alternative: Both teams to score at 11/10
Huddersfield v West Ham (1500)
The Premier League table says there's not much between these sides, the betting agrees, and that's probably the case. Indeed, for 70 minutes in September there was absolutely nothing between them, until two late goals earned West Ham three points in London.
Huddersfield will feel that they can gain revenge back on home soil but the Hammers have been fairly impressive lately, sparked into life by the appointment of David Moyes and the goals of Marko Arnautovic. Simply put, I'm in no rush to make a judgement on the outcome of the game.
There is, however, a decent spot of value if you shop around - 2/1 about Pablo Zabaleta being carded.
The Uruguayan has seven yellows to his name this season which, given that he's featured in 21 games, makes 2/1 a precisely accurate price. However, six of the bookings have been in 12 away appearances and that swings the pendulum in favour of a bet, especially given that referee Jon Moss ranks above-average when it comes to reaching into his pocket.
Zabaleta was also booked in the reverse after a bad challenge on Rajiv van La Parra, and it's become something of a theme for opponents of a similar level to earn yellows at Huddersfield. Defenders from Stoke (2), Burnley, West Brom (2) and Newcastle having been booked in closely-fought matches as this one should prove and there must be every chance that Zabaleta transgresses once more.
Super 6 prediction: Huddersfield 1-1 West Ham
Best bet: Pablo Zabaleta to be carded at 2/1
Alternative: Marko Arnautovic to score in a draw at 12/1
Newcastle v Swansea (1500)
I expected to convince myself that Newcastle just aren't the sort of side you want to be backing at odds-on here, but at 10/11 they actually look a very decent bet to hammer another nail into the Swansea coffin.
The visitors somehow came from the dead to beat Watford in Carlos Carvalhal's first game in charge, but they've failed to score in two subsequent games and were totally outclassed by Spurs before a respectable 0-0 draw at Wolves.
They simply aren't a side to worry about, particularly in attack, and Newcastle's recent return to form comes at just the right time. When they've lost it's been by just one goal, and away wins at West Ham and Stoke before Saturday's victory over Luton should have them absolutely primed for this. They rate the most solid bet on the coupon.
At risk of echoing the preceding preview, there might also be a bookings bet to consider. Jordan Ayew is third in the total fouls chart this season yet has managed thus far to escape a card of any colour, which means he's as big as 5/1 here.
Wilfred Ndidi and Luka Milivojevic, the only two more frequent offenders, are both considerably shorter and it seems a matter of time before Ayew finds his way into the book. Granted, his offences are generally higher up the pitch, less vulnerable to a card, but he'll be done for repeat offending one day soon and might be worth following at this sort of price.
Super 6 prediction: Newcastle 2-0 Swansea
Best bet: Newcastle to win at 10/11
Alternative: Jordan Ayew to be carded at 5/1
Watford v Southampton (1500)
When Watford beat Southampton 2-0 at St Mary's in September, you'd have been given just about any price that they'd reach this point in the season without having added another clean sheet in the Premier League.
Perhaps Saturday's 3-0 victory over Bristol Rovers will inspire a run of improved defensive displays, but fans would be forgiven for thinking they may need to score twice or more to double up on their rivals here.
Saints are hoping for a similar FA Cup boost. They've not won an away Premier League game since September, one week on from that Watford defeat, but did well to take care of Fulham at the weekend in a game which had 'upset' written all over it.
The side Mauricio Pellegrino named in London tells you that he knows he's under pressure and that could spill over into a fairly turgid affair. That'll help Watford with their defensive ambitions and, with arguably the greater fluency in attack, perhaps they can edge to a narrow win as they did against Leicester here on Boxing Day.
Whatever happens, one or both managers will end this game under increased scrutiny and it's that which strengthens my belief that going low on goals is the play.
Super 6 prediction: Watford 1-0 Southampton
Best bet: Under 2.5 goals at 10/11
Alternative: Watford to win to nil at 7/2
West Brom v Brighton (1500)
After more than four barren months, West Brom finally won a game of football on Saturday as a strong side quickly asserted against Exeter in the FA Cup.
Alan Pardew knows that will count for very little unless they back it up, especially as they've since been drawn to face Liverpool at Anfield in round four which will presumably end any fanciful notion that they might win a trophy.
It's all about Premier League survival and we can probably zoom in on games at The Hawthorns in terms of working out whether they'll achieve their goal. The Baggies host Brighton, Southampton, Huddersfield, Leicester, Burnley and Swansea, before a tricky conclusion to the season with Liverpool and Spurs, and must surely win four of those eight if they're to stand a chance.
Brighton have done fairly well away from home, particularly when facing bottom-half rivals, but goals have become a serious issue. They've failed to score on the road since the first Saturday in November; five away goals is a league low and much may depend once more on Glenn Murray, who popped up with the winner against Crystal Palace on Monday night.
Given that only Swansea have scored fewer home goals than West Brom and what's at stake here, a goalless draw will do for many at 11/2.
Jay Rodriguez, though, might be capable of stealing the headlines. The striker has scored in two of his last three games and, prior to the injury which seriously set back his career, was known for scoring in bursts - for four seasons in succession, he enjoyed streaks in which he scored in three or more games running.
Rodriguez issued a rallying cry after the Exeter win, urging his team-mates to build on a performance in which they created as many chances as they had in 10 previous games, and at 5/2 to find the net looks a decent enough wager here.
However, with Brighton so devoid of attacking wherewithal and West Brom capable, if nothing else, of shutting them out, I'll take a bigger price about him breaking the deadlock. One goal may be enough and it's Rodriguez, rather than Salomon Rondon, who looks most likely to find it.
Super 6 prediction: West Brom 2-0 Brighton
Best bet: Jay Rodriguez to score first at 57/10
Alternative: West Brom to score first at 5/6
Tottenham v Everton (1730, live on BT Sport)
Saturday night's TV game pits in-form Spurs against out-of-form Everton, but the hosts look short enough on balance at 1/4.
No doubt, they boast by far the greater attacking threat and are capable of blowing any side out of the water, but an organised West Ham effort just over a week ago showed that it is possible to nullify the hosts.
Granted, Adrian was outstanding in goal that day but it's possible that Jordan Pickford could produce something similar and I'm not at all surprised that there's some early interest in quotes as big as 12/1 about a surprise Everton win.
They were probably a little hard done by against Liverpool last Friday, losing to a last-gasp headed goal having gone behind to a dubious penalty, and I liked the way Everton countered at Anfield. It'll be a similar plan of attack here and while Sam Allardyce has bemoaned a lack of goal threat, at least Gylfri Sigurdsson has answered the call with three in eight under his new boss.
Perhaps significantly, one of those goals came against Swansea and against another of his former employers, Sigurdsson is worth considering at 6/1 to find the net once more while the focus inevitably switches to new man Cenk Tosun.
It should be noted that Spurs do boast an excellent record against Everton, who last beat them more than five years ago and last won away in 2008, and chances are they will be good enough to get the job done with something to spare.
Indeed, their last seven wins dating back to the start of December have all been by two or more goals, so one way to get with them is on the handicap at 5/6.
Best bet: Spurs (-1) on the handicap at 5/6
Alternative: Gylfi Sigurdsson to score at 6/1
Prediction: Tottenham 3-1 Everton
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Posted at 1635 GMT on 11/01/18.