Tom Carnduff and George Pitts provide a match-by-match betting preview for Saturday's Premier League action.
Saturday's Premier League recommended bets
2pts Harry Maguire to be shown a card in Leicester v West Ham at 6/1
2pts Newcastle to beat Watford and over 1.5 total goals at 31/10
1pt Abdoulaye Doucoure to be shown a card in Watford v Newcastle at 9/2
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Stoke v Crystal Palace (1230 BST, Sky Sports Premier League)
It's a must-win for Stoke on Saturday as they simply have to claim victory to give themselves a chance of staying up in the Premier League.
They have picked up points in recent weeks, but their inability to turn one of their three draws in as many matches into wins may well come back to haunt them.
The Potters welcome a Crystal Palace side who are in decent form. Their revival under Roy Hodgson has pushed them clear of real relegation trouble and they are without defeat in their last four.
Palace hammered Leicester 5-0 last time out and will have confidence flowing through them.
This could be problematic for Stoke who know that nothing less than three points will be satisfactory.
A win for Stoke would take the relegation battle right down to the final day, but I'd be looking at them to continue their winless run by picking up a point against Palace.
The draw is best priced at 5/2 and that seems decent enough value to me given the circumstances.
Martin Atkinson is the referee for this one and he is one of the Premier League's stricter referees.
On average, Atkinson has shown just under 40 booking points each game this season - 39.5 to be exact - so we should see more cards in this one.
Joe Allen is Stoke's most-carded player in the Premier League this season with eight yellow cards.
He's 3/1 to be shown a card at anytime and I'll put that as one of my best bets for this one.
Score prediction: Stoke 1-1 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 5/1) (Tom Carnduff)
Best bet: Stoke and Crystal Palace to draw at 5/2
Alternative: Joe Allen to be shown a card at 3/1
Bournemouth v Swansea (1500 BST)
Another side who are looking to avoid the drop are Swansea, who find themselves just one point clear of relegation despite a mini-revival under Carlos Carvalhal.
They need to secure victory, although I'm not sure if they'll be able to wrap up all three points on the south coast.
Portuguese boss Carvalhal had turned around their fortunes in a short space of time since joining in December.
However, they now find themselves with no win in seven, picking up just three points from their last possible 21.
That's why they are firmly back in relegation trouble, although they can take some confidence in AFC Bournemouth's struggles in recent weeks.
The Cherries are winless in five, losing their last three encounters.
Eddie Howe's men are still mathematically in the relegation running, but find themselves six points clear in 12th.
Joshua King will be one of Bournemouth's go-to men on Saturday given he sits as their joint-top scorer this season.
He has eight in all competitions, including three in his last five games. King can be found at 23/10 to strike anytime against Swansea.
Swansea have to win as they want to keep their fate in their own hands, and they do stand a chance despite their current form.
Like Stoke and Palace, I fancy this game to end in a draw.
The Swans need the win more, but it is easier said than done in the Premier League, especially away from home.
A draw will still help them in their quest for survival, and Southampton's tricky clash with Everton might see them leave empty-handed.
Throw in the fact that seven of Swansea's last 10 away games have ended in draws and it shows how they are capable of picking up something away from the Liberty Stadium.
For me, a draw at 5/2 is tempting value.
Score prediction: Bournemouth 1-1 Swansea (Sky Bet odds: 5/1) (Tom Carnduff)
Best bet: Bournemouth and Swansea to draw at 5/2
Alternative: Joshua King to score anytime at 23/10
Leicester v West Ham (1500 BST)
Marko Arnautovic has been one of West Ham's main survival hopes in recent weeks and I'm looking at him to get on the scoresheet at Leicester.
The 29-year-old has 10 goals in all competitions this season, and scored a brace when they faced fellow strugglers Southampton at the end of March.
Leicester are coming in on the back of a 5-0 hammering and supporting Arnautovic anytime seems decent enough value at 7/4.
A win for West Ham also puts them in a much better position, and I think they are capable of doing it against Claude Puel's men who haven't won in five home games.
The Hammers' away record hasn't been much better, but they know that a victory means so much more to them with the current standings.
The 12/5 on a West Ham victory is appealing with the Foxes having little to play for, and the rumours getting louder regarding Puel's future at the club.
Combining the Austrian striker to score anytime and a West Ham win is 7/2 is to my liking.
Chris Kavanagh is the referee for this game. He's been strict in his recent appearances, showing eight yellow cards in Watford's 0-0 draw with Crystal Palace last time out.
Seven yellows and a red in Leicester's 2-0 win over Brighton a few weeks before also highlights how he isn't afraid to book players.
Harry Maguire is Leicester's most carded player this season with seven. He's best-priced at 15/4 to be shown a card by Kavanagh, which is a strong bet.
Score prediction: Leicester 1-2 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 10/1) (Tom Carnduff)
Best bet: Harry Maguire to be shown a card at 6/1
Alternative: Marko Arnautovic to score anytime at West Ham to win at 7/2
Watford v Newcastle (1500 BST)
Watford’s season has been petering out for a while now and they have Newcastle to face before ending the campaign away at Manchester United.
The Hornets would undoubtedly have taken this option over an end-of-season relegation scrap, and two draws in their last five have taken them to 38 points and clear of the drop – with four other teams between them and the bottom three.
I have covered Watford in previews a few times in recent weeks and feel like I have wrote about them only winning three Premier League games in 2018 so often – but that still stands and it is not a good return for the Hertfordshire outfit.
Javi Gracia’s men have lost five and drawn two of their last seven yet they still have very much to play for, with the prospect of a best ever Premier League finish.
The Hornets finished 13th in 2015/16 and they are in the same position with two games to go and can finish above that depending on how other teams around them do.
Watford can be backed at around 6/4 to get the home win, against Rafa Benitez’s 10th-placed Newcastle (2/1).
The Magpies were nervously looking over their shoulders at the prospect of relegation before a run of four successive Premier League wins sent them towards the top half.
They have since lost two on the spin – one coming at home against a resurgent West Brom – but depending on their own results and Leicester’s, they could yet finish ninth.
Both sides have reason to keep their focus before the end of the season and you could be best advised backing in favour of the away side at Vicarage Road.
I cannot see Watford winning before the end of the campaign while Newcastle can bounce back and return to winning ways. They will be without Islam Slimani, who is now banned until the end of the season, but that should be no problem.
Newcastle to win and over 1.5 total goals looks a great price at 31/10, while you can get the visitors to win with a -1-goal handicap at 6s. If you feel slightly less confident, then Newcastle in a draw no bet market at 6/5 is also a good option.
Another good alternative bet is in the cards market. Watford’s Abdoulaye Doucoure has been yellow carded an amazing ten times this term – the joint-highest in the league this term – and he can be backed at 9/2 to be shown a card on Saturday afternoon.
Score prediction: Watford 0-2 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 12/1) (George Pitts)
Best bet: Newcastle to win and over 1.5 total goals at 31/10
Alternative: Abdoulaye Doucoure to be shown a card at 9/2
West Brom v Tottenham (1500 BST)
Just as West Brom looked certain to finish bottom of the Premier League, their mini end-of-season revival under Darren Moore has given them hope.
Baggies fans have to remain realistic and accept that the chances of a Great Escape volume two are very high, but their recent results have provided them with some pride and even the chance of not finishing bottom.
Moore has been impressive since replacing Alan Pardew, ending an eight-game losing streak by drawing with Swansea before beating Manchester United at Old Trafford, coming from two goals down to draw with Liverpool and most recently winning at Newcastle.
They are five points behind 17th-placed Swansea with six to play for, but the Welsh side also have a game in-hand. It may be too little, too late for Albion but they will be keen to get a result when Tottenham visit the Hawthorns.
The hosts are around 7/1 to win the match and a draw can be backed at 4s, so the bookies have little faith in Albion continuing their good form under their caretaker manager.
Spurs are odds-on for the victory in the Midlands and they still need to secure a top-four finish.
Mauricio Pochettino’s men still have a five-point lead over fifth-placed Chelsea with three games remaining. Anything other than a win could make for a nervy ending to the campaign for the north Londoners.
Tottenham to win with a -1-goal handicap at 11/10 looks like great odds while you can get the same price for Tottenham to win with over 2.5 total goals.
Salomon Rondon scored in the home draw with Liverpool while Harry Kane is still in the hunt for the Golden Boot, so 9/2 for them both to score in Saturday��s game could be worth small stakes.
It has been great for the neutrals to see West Brom show some promise, but Spurs will prove too strong.
Score prediction: West Brom 1-3 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 10/1) (George Pitts)
Best bet: Salomon Rondon and Harry Kane both to score at 9/2
Alternative: Tottenham to win with a -1-goal handicap at 11/10
Everton v Southampton (1730 BST, BT Sport 1)
This is a meeting between two established Premier League sides who have lost their respective identities this season.
Everton have been steered clear of any danger by Sam Allardyce and look on course for an eighth-placed finish, yet fans are still ungrateful and are protesting to get their manager out. Some will probably even want their side to lose in order to make the club’s hierarchy consider Allardyce’s position.
Southampton, meanwhile, never looked like a team battling relegation before the start of this season – they were probably looking up rather than down after reaching the Carabao Cup final and finishing eighth under Claude Puel.
They have since parted company with Puel and his successor Mauricio Pellegrino, with Mark Hughes left to save their Premier League status. The Welsh manager has given them hope after a draw and win in their last two games leaves them a point from safety with three games to play.
While Everton have been quite solid at home this season, Southampton are fighting for survival and understandably favourites with the books at around 8/5.
They are worth backing to get the result and if you combine that with over 1.5 total goals you can get odds of 23/10. The atmosphere on Merseyside could affect the players with fans voicing their disapproval of Allardyce’s style of play – and Saint can make the most of it.
Score prediction: Everton 1-2 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 17/2) (George Pitts)
Best bet: Southampton to beat Everton at 33/20
Alternative: Southampton to win and over 1.5 total goals at 23/10
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Preview posted at 1955 BST (03/05/18)
