Michael Beardmore has best bets and a preview for Wolves v Southampton, live on Sky Sports Main Event in the Premier League on Monday.
Recommended bets
1pt Kyle Walker-Peters to be carded 6/1
0.5pt James Ward-Prowse to score first 14/1
0.5pt James Ward-Prowse to score anytime 6/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Wolves v Southampton
- 20:00 GMT on Sky Sports Premier League
- Match odds: Home 13/10 | Draw 23/10 | Away 21/10
It’s not quite defence vs attack at Molineux on Monday Night Football but the question is very much about whether a frugal Wolves side can put the brakes on free-scoring visitors Southampton.
The international break came at perhaps the worst time for a Saints side who have won five of their past six games, scoring 14 goals in the process and enjoying a brief spell atop the Premier League.
They showed against Newcastle in the game prior to the recess they can score goals even without injured star striker Danny Ings but the much-vaunted Wolves’ backline is a far tougher nut to crack.
Perennial favourites of our Premier League Punting Pointers column – which this week observed that 19 of their past 22 games have featured under 2.5 goals (a measly 4/6 for this game in most places) – Wanderers have a defensive record no other top-flight team can currently better this term.
But scoring goals has proved harder than keeping them out for Nuno Espirito Santo’s side, who have managed to squeeze 13 points out of eight games despite finding the net on only eight occasions.
Add in the eternal uncertainty over the first game back after an international break and it’s difficult to forecast anything other than another tight affair in the West Midlands under the floodlights.
Wolves are favourites at 13/10 but when you consider their home record (W2 D1 L1 GD+1) is utterly identical to Southampton’s away record, I’m very much leaning towards a share of the spoils here.
You can take the draw at Sky Bet’s market-leading 23/10 but for an extra pinch of value, I’m tipping a draw and under 2.5 goals at 3/1 – Wolves don’t really do 2-2s or 3-3s after all.
Saints are no defensive slouches either – yes, they have shipped goals to top sides Spurs (2-5) and Chelsea (3-3) but four clean sheets in the last six games tells its own story and I fancy 0-0 or 1-1 here.
Finding value elsewhere is tricky, so tight is the contest, but there are two Saints players worth backing in somewhat different markets. We're going acronym style with KWP and JWP. You dig?
Saints’ £12m summer capture from Tottenham, Kyle Walker-Peters, has picked up three yellow cards already this term. Factor in another booking when last season resumed and that’s four in his past 12 games.
So I was mightily surprised to see the right-back 6/1 with bet365 to enter the referees’ notebook when a) he’s as skinny as 7/2 elsewhere and b) the likes of Wolves attackers Daniel Podence and Pedro Neto are shorter priced in general.
Further forward, James Ward-Prowse is an inviting 14/1 with 888Sport and Unibet to add to his three goals already this season by netting first – and a tidy 6/1 to score anytime with the same firms – as long as he's free from the tight hamstring that forced him to pull out of England duty.
Wolves don’t concede many goals, just nine this term, but two of those have come from free-kicks and two from the penalty spot.
You fancy that if Saints do break them down, it could well come from one of those two routes so 14s to net first and 6s anytime look huge on England midfielder and set-piece specialist Ward-Prowse who also assumes penalty duties in Ings’ absence.
Score prediction: Wolves 1-1 Southampton (Sky Bet odds 5/1)
Best bets:
1pt Kyle Walker Peters to be carded 6/1
Odds correct at 1900 GMT (19/11/20)
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