Reading could move nine points clear at the top of the Sky Bet Championship table with victory over Coventry. Tom Carnduff has two best bets.
Recommended bets
1pt Reading to beat Coventry at 13/10
1pt Andy Rinomhota to have 4+ tackles at 15/8
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Coventry v Reading
- 19:45 GMT on Sky Sports Football
- Match odds: Home 23/10 | Draw 21/10 | Away 13/10
Two teams in contrasting form meet in Birmingham and Reading look good value for success at an odds-against price. The Royals already hold a six-point advantage at the top of the Sky Bet Championship table.
Coventry, meanwhile, slipped into the bottom-three in the latest round of fixtures and their only win of the campaign remains that 3-2 victory over QPR. The last two games have seen six goals conceded and none scored. That ratio could continue against a Reading side with 15 on their tally and just three against.
Remarkably, two of those three goals came against another high-scoring team in Blackburn at the weekend and only Rovers can boast more goals scored than Reading in England's second tier this season. Their goalscoring form is exceptional considering they average just seven shots per game - the lowest in the league by some margin.
It's therefore little surprise to see that they have such a low xG rate. They are clinical but the 15 goals scored have come from an xG of just 6.2. They defy the statistics but that isn't always necessarily a bad thing, it does boost their odds on victory and it's worth backing them to continue that run against an out of form Coventry side.
Coventry have conceded 16 from an xGA rate of 14.2. They are a side who do want to play football but they are finding the step up a division tough. We weren't entirely sure where to place this Coventry side at the beginning of the season but perhaps the aim is to now just ensure survival.
While Reading's xG rate may only be 6.2, Coventry's isn't much better at 6.7 yet their xGA figure is so much higher than the Royals. The visitors may be outperforming the numbers but the performances have outshone those of Coventry. That has contributed to their 13/10 price on three points and that is just too good to turn down.
Sticking with the stats, the one area where Reading do excel is tackles as they lead the division with an average of 17.9; Coventry aren't far behind with 16 per 90 minutes. This could make it a game with a high tackle rate, Coventry had an incredible 29 against Middlesbrough last time out, and the value comes in Royals midfielder Andy Rinomhota having 4+ at a price of 15/8.
He's played every minute of the campaign so far and has seen at least three tackles in five of the eight games. Four or more have come in three of those games and in a game where tackles are expected, it's worth backing Rinomhota to hit that figure again. The promotion picture could be looking very pretty for Reading on Friday night; this start will be crucial for their long-term aspirations of reaching the Premier League.
Score prediction: Coventry 0-2 Reading (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Best bet: Reading to beat Coventry at 13/10
Odds correct at 1745 GMT (29/10/20)
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