Football betting tips: Europa League
1pt Royal Antwerp to beat Rangers at 3/1 (bet365)
Royal Antwerp v Rangers
- 20:00 GMT on BT Sport 3
- Match odds: Home 19/10 | Draw 5/2 | Away 19/20
Rangers travel to Belgium on Thursday night as they look to progress to the last 16 of the Europa League, but they will face a much tougher task than the last time they were in the country.
Rangers did the double over Standard Liege in the group stage of this competition, though they did twice need to come from behind to get the better of the famous Belgian outfit at Ibrox in December, Scott Arfield’s second-half goal securing a 3-2 win for the Gers.
Standard are not the pinnacle of Belgian football at present however, and it is likely that Royal Antwerp will pose a very different threat.
Royal Antwerp made a dream start to their European campaign, beating Ludogorets away before pulling off a big upset against Tottenham, beating Jose Mourinho’s men 1-0, and deservedly so according to Expected Goals (xG), creating far more chances than their English opponents.
An unexpected defeat to LASK, as well as defeat in the reverse fixture against Spurs on the final matchday of the group stage, meant Antwerp had to settle for second place in Group J, though they did progress to the knock-out stages having won four of their six matches.
Antwerp are in good form at present, unbeaten in their last four, winning three of those fixtures, but they hold little hope of gaining a first little title since 1956/57, currently trailing league leaders Club Brugge by a whopping 13 points.
All their eggs then, looks to be heading towards the Europa League basket, and they are likely to make life extremely difficult for their Scottish visitors in the first leg of this tie.
Antwerp clearly have the capacity to keep opponents at bay, conceding just five goals in the group stage of the Europa League, and this could quickly become a frustrating night for the visitors.
Rangers, in contrast to their opponents, look to have their domestic league all but sewn up, currently leading bitter rivals Celtic by 18 points in the SPL.
Steven Gerrard’s side are having a wonderful season, and they progressed from Group D of the Europa League with a bit to spare, finishing two points ahead of Benfica.
Interestingly though, their Expected Goal Difference (xGD) was worse than that of Benfica, and in fact, out of all the other group winners, only AC Millan’s xGD was lower than Rangers’.
Not only did Rangers post a low xGD for a group winner, they were also bettered by Royal Antwerp in that metric, with the Belgian side creating more chances throughout the group stage.
It is never popular to tip against a British side in games such as these, but the prices bookmakers offer on such sides are often far too short.
The main difficulty is trying to determine the difference in ability between the leagues. Are a Scottish team leading their league much better than a Belgian team who sit in second in theirs?
If we take a look at the betting history involving Rangers in this competition, we see that they were sent off at 11/10 away to Standard Liege back in October. Plenty has gone on since then, but the fact that they are shorter here – against a side seven points clear of Standard in their domestic league – seems an oversight.
The betting for this match should probably be much closer than it currently is, with 3/1 about ROYAL ANTWERP looking reasonably big, particularly considering what they did to Tottenham when Mourinho brought his men to Belgium back in October.
Score prediction: Antwerp 1-0 Rangers (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Royal Antwerp v Rangers best bets
- Antwerp to beat Rangers at 3/1 (bet365)
Posted at 1030 GMT on 17/02/21
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