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Relegation odds and probabilities: Everton, Leeds or Burnley for the drop?
With the battle for Premier League survival really hotting up, we look at the probabilities of relegation for the teams involved at the bottom.
Norwich as good as down, Watford not far off
Let's start with who the Infogol model feels will more than likely be playing Sky Bet Championship football next season. We calculate that there is a 99.9% probability that NORWICH will be in the second tier in 2022/23.
The scenes of Dean Smith's players jubilantly celebrating a stoppage-time equaliser at Leeds on Sunday, only to concede moments later was the final nail in what was already a well-sealed coffin.
Six straight defeats and now eight points from safety with seemingly no way back. End of story.
WATFORD, meanwhile, may be only three points behind fourth-bottom Everton, but they are still rated as having an 85.7% chance of dropping into the second tier.
Roy Hodgson has not been able to spark the turnaround he would have liked, but a win at Southampton in their last league game - his second in nine games since taking charge - has given them at least some kind of hope.
But having played two games more than both Everton and Burnley who sit a place and a point below them, survival is a big ask. At 7/2 to stay up you might be tempted, but we would be looking at closer to the 5/1 mark for it to be considered value.
Premier League relegation | survival odds (via Sky Bet)
- Norwich - n/a | 16/1
- Watford - 1/6 | 7/2
- Burnley - 8/13 | 5/4
- Everton - 5/2 | 1/4
- Leeds - 3/1 | 4/11
- Brentford - 6/1 | 1/12
- Newcastle - 33/1 | n/a
Odds correct at 11:30 (21/03/22)
Newcastle and Brentford as good as safe
On to who the Infogol model considers near enough completely safe. NEWCASTLE are given just a 3.3% chance of being relegated, such is the job Eddie Howe has done since taking over from Steve Bruce.
Fuelled by Saudi investment, the Magpies' transfer window spending spree has helped take them comfortably clear of relegation danger, with only suspect refereeing decisions ending their nine-match unbeaten run as they were narrowly beaten 1-0 at Chelsea on Sunday, before losing to Everton in midweek.
The run of six wins from seven prior to that fixture should be enough to see them to safety, with the gap to the bottom three a healthy nine points.
BRENTFORD (6.8% probability) were looking in real trouble only a couple of weeks ago having taking just one point from eight league matches, in danger of making an immediate return to the Championship.
But a combination of Christian Eriksen's January arrival, Ivan Toney's rediscovery of his scoring touch (and unflappable nature from the penalty spot) and back-to-back fixtures against poor opposition in Burnley and Norwich, both of whom were beaten, has taken Thomas Frank's men within touching distance of survival.
They suffered a set-back at the weekend away at Leicester, but the Bees remain eight points clear of the relegation zone with three quarters of the season gone.
Premier League bottom seven
- 14th Newcastle | GP: 29 | Pts: 31
- 15th Brentford | GP: 30 | Pts: 30
- 16th Leeds Utd | GP: 30 | Pts: 29
- 17th Everton | GP: 27 | Pts: 25
- 18th Watford | GP: 29 | Pts: 22
- 19th Burnley | GP: 27 | Pts: 21
- 20th Norwich | GP: 29 | Pts: 17
Will Everton be relegated?
Things have not gone overly well for Frank Lampard, losing five of his seven league fixtures with Everton out of the relegation zone by three points after beating Newcastle before the international break.
They are a Premier League ever-present and have not been relegated from the top flight since 1951.
The Infogol model gives Everton a 27.3% chance of being relegated, so a 72.7% chance of survival. They are generally priced at 11/4 (26.7%) and 1/3 (75%) respectively, so we are giving them a better chance of going down than the bookies.
What can't be factored into an Expected Goals (xG) model's simulation, however, is a recent change in manager. If Everton have in fact completely fallen apart under Lampard, you may be inclined to sprinkle a small dose of that into your thought process.
The Toffees have been worst under Lampard from an underlying process than under Rafa Benitez this season, and they haven't exactly had the toughest of fixtures.
Away form is a massive issue, with a 4-0 drubbing at the hands of Crystal Palace in the FA Cup their fourth successive away loss since Lampard took charge, losing those games by an aggregate score of 14-1.
A victory over Newcastle last midweek was huge though, putting daylight between themselves and third-bottom Watford, but their remaining fixtures do look incredibly difficult.
Everton's remaining fixtures:
- West Ham (A), Man Utd (H), Liverpool (A), Chelsea (H), Leicester (A), Brentford (H), Arsenal (A), Burnley (A), Leicester (H), *Palace (H). *Watford (A).
*Date for rearranged fixture tbc.
Have Leeds pulled themselves clear?
The boost teenage striker Joe Gelhardt, with a huge helping hand from Raphinha, gave LEEDS’ chances of survival by scoring deep into stoppage time only moments after Norwich had equalised a few Sunday's ago cannot be overstated.
And there was yet more drama in Leeds' most recent Premier League encounter, as they came from 2-0 down to beat Wolves 3-2, moving themselves seven points clear of the relegation zone.
After that incredible turnaround, Leeds are now rated as having a 22.9% chance of being relegated according to the Infogol model, meaning the 3/1 (25%) available for Jesse Marsch's side to be relegated represents no value, even if Leeds' run-in is far from straightforward.
Leeds' remaining fixtures:
- Southampton (H), Watford (A), Chelsea (H), Palace (A), Man City (H), Arsenal (A), Brighton (H), Brentford (A).
Is this the year Burnley go down?
After results last week, with wins for both Everton and Leeds, BURNLEY'S chance of relegation has increased past the 50/50 mark to 53.9% .
While it is tough to shake the nagging feeling that Sean Dyche's team will 'Burnley' their way to survival, they currently sit second-bottom and have won the fewest Premier League games this season – just three.
Perhaps of even greater concern is that two of those were successive in February. Burnley have had winless runs of nine and 11 games already this season, and are now without a victory in four, losing their last three.
With that in mind, expecting them to win any more than two (at a push three) of their remaining 11 fixtures is asking a lot. Trips to Norwich and Watford could ultimately prove decisive.
Burnley's remaining fixtures:
- Man City (H), Norwich (A), West Ham (A), Wolves (H), Watford (A), Villa (H), Spurs (A), Newcastle (H), *Villa (A), *Soton (H), *Everton (H)
*Date for rearranged fixture tbc.
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