Joe Townsend previews Wednesday's Premier League games, and he's backing Liverpool to end their goal-scoring drought away from home.
Recommended bets
2pts Sheff Utd v Wolves Half-Time Correct Score 0-0 at 11/8
1pt Newcastle 18+ Tackles v Man City at 5/4
1pt West Ham to keep a clean sheet v Burnley at 13/8
1pt Liverpool to win and Under 2.5 Total Goals at 3/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Brighton v Liverpool
- 2015 BST kick-off on Sky Sports
- Match Odds: Home 9/2 | Draw 16/5 | Away 4/7
Brighton are a good team, and have come back from the shutdown in similar form to how they started the season.
It's seen them once again win plaudits for their stylish brand of football and, with wins over Arsenal and Norwich and a goalless draw at Leicester to show for it, 36 points has them almost safe.
But they were also taken apart by Manchester United at the Amex, which followed a consistent theme of their debut campaign under Graham Potter: Man City away 0-4, Chelsea away 0-2, Man Utd away 3-1, Leicester home 0-2, Liverpool away 1-2, Chelsea home 1-1, Leicester away 0-0, Man Utd home 0-3.
Eight games against the current top five: two points, three goals scored, 17 goals conceded. It's no disgrace, they are 15th in the Premier League table after all. However, it's difficult to make a case for them against the champions.
Albion did run the Reds close in the reverse fixture, but Allison's sending-off changed the match late on, and it feels as though a similar key moment would be needed on Wednesday.
As we saw in Southampton's shock win over Man City on Sunday, and Brighton's draw against Chelsea earlier in the campaign, weaker teams require something - in these instances, a moment of individual brilliance - to cause an upset.
As we can see, only twice have Albion managed to prevent a top-five side from scoring more than one goal against them, and only three times have they scored themselves - with two of those in out of the ordinary circumstances. Jurgen Klopp's team meanwhile have scored two or more goals in eight of their 10 fixtures against the current bottom six.
Incredibly though, Liverpool have lost the touch of scoring away from home. It's now five-straight matches on the road in all competitions without finding the net, and the match previous to that was a 1-0 win at Norwich. So it's one goal in six away games for Klopp's team.
Aside from a defensive capitulation in their 4-0 thrashing by City, the champions have kept clean sheets in all of their post-shutdown matches and are 5/4 to keep Brighton out - for a little more, Liverpool win to nil is 7/4. I like those markets, but I think there are better prices elsewhere.
The barren scoring run surely cannot go on for much longer, and anyone who watched that brilliant end-to-end game at the Etihad will know Liverpool should have netted at least three times themselves that night.
Would it be a surprise for the Reds to suddenly find their scoring touch and win 3-0? No. So Liverpool/Under 3.5 Goals at 11/8 would cover you there.
But I am happy to go for the extra return of them not scoring three against a Brighton defence that is usually pretty reliable.
- Prediction: Brighton 0-2 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
- Best bet: Liverpool/Under 2.5 Goals at 3/1
Manchester City v Newcastle
- 1800 BST kick-off on BT Sport
- Match Odds: Home 1/8 | Draw 15/2 | Away 18/1
A big advantage we have when previewing this game is that the teams played each other just a fortnight or so ago. While that match was at St James' Park in the FA Cup and this one's at the Etihad in the Premier League, there's no reason to think that it won't follow a very similar pattern.
What's been difficult when looking for value in these post-lockdown fixtures is how much to read into statistics pre-shutdown. Personally, I think we're beginning to get a clearer picture, and big enough sample size, to almost consider the last few weeks as a mini season in itself.
Man City beat Newcastle 2-0 in what was a very one-sided FA Cup quarter-final. In terms of match statistics it was very similar to their 1-0 league defeat at Southampton at the weekend, only Steve Bruce's side didn't have Che Adams to thump in a brilliant strike before they fell behind.
In Newcastle's previous three games they have made 19, 16 and 22 tackles - the first of that sequence being against City in the cup. Saints made 20 tackles in their win over Pep Guardiola's team on Sunday.
That's enough evidence for me that the Magpies will be in the high tackle numbers once again. Newcastle 17+ Tackles at 10/11 seems a harsh price to me, so hopefully a Guardiola team revved up following a surprise loss will need repeatedly cutting down by Newcastle's defence, as I'm adding one for a little more value.
- Prediction: Man City 2-0 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
- Best bet: Newcastle 18+ Tackles at 5/4
Sheffield United v Wolves
- 1800 BST kick-off on Sky Sports
- Match Odds: Home 29/10 | Draw 21/10 | Away 11/10
Sheffield United have looked much more like themselves in the past three matches having struggled following the restart, particularly defensively in 3-0 losses to Newcastle and Manchester United. But there were signs of recovery in a late FA Cup defeat by Arsenal, before they took care of an insipid Tottenham and battled to a draw at Burnley.
Wolves will be looking to respond to their first setback since lockdown having lost at home to an impressive Gunners outfit, which denied them a fourth straight behind-closed-doors win. What it didn't change, is that every one of their matches has involved under 2.5 goals.
Chris Wilder's Blades pride themselves on staying in games, so it's a great bet for this one - 23 of their first 29 league games had under 2.5 goals. For Wolves, it's been the case in seven of their last nine matches, but with best odds of just 1/2 it's hardly a best bet - that's not to say I would not back it. I do expect Nuno's team to bounce back from their recent home defeat so Wolves and Under 2.5 Goals at 5/2 offers you a bit more if you're that way inclined.
But what I really like is 0-0 at half-time at 11/8. Wolves were two minutes from a seventh-straight goalless first half, and it took a stunning volley from Arsenal winger Bukayo Saka to break that streak.
At 11/8, I think that's a great price. Again, if you're chasing bigger odds then Draw/Wolves at 4/1 for half-time/full-time looks appealing but, although I am predicting a narrow win for the away side, I don't think I'll bet against the Blades.
- Prediction: Sheff Utd 0-1 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 9/2)
- Best bet: Half-Time Correct Score 0-0 at 11/8
West Ham v Burnley
- 1800 BST kick-off on BT Sport
- Match Odds: Home 1/1 | Draw 12/5 | Away 14/5
This might not look like the most exciting match, but it really is a curious one. Burnley fighting for a European place, West Ham battling against relegation. The Clarets keeping things tight and grinding out points, the Hammers letting in two goals a game and gradually improving. Sean Dyche struggling to fill his bench, David Moyes leaving out £45m stars.
What Dyche has done since Burnley were pulverised 5-0 by Man City in their opening match of the restart has shone an extra light on his phenomenal achievements during eight years at Turf Moor. To have a squad decimated by expired contracts and injury, only 13 first-team players available, defenders in midfield, midfielders in attack, and still to collect seven points from nine is incredible.
The tried and trusted Burnley way has got them there too. It didn't quite work perfectly against Sheffield United, as a late equaliser denied them a third straight 1-0 win, but expect more of the same at the London Stadium on Wednesday.
Moyes' West Ham meanwhile, are finally starting to look somewhere close to the team that they should be, given the quality players in their squad. Positive performances against Chelsea and Newcastle yielded four points, and I expect that upward trajectory to continue.
Defensively, despite conceding twice in all four post-lockdown games, there were reasons to be optimistic in their derby win last midweek as both Willian goals were direct set-pieces, and even though both equalisers in the draw at St James' were avoidable, against a Burnley side lacking attacking threat I'm backing a West Ham clean sheet at 13/8 - it'd be their first since New Year's Day.
Those odds are solid against a Burnley team who have not scored more than once in their last six Premier League matches, and are scraping a starting XI together.
They cannot keep it up forever. I'm conflicted myself, though. In my gut this feels like a match that West Ham will win and then allowing for a statistically likely goal against, West Ham/Under 3.5 Goals at 17/10 jumps out.
But I'm going to white knuckle it and stick with the clean sheet.
- Score prediction: West Ham 1-0 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
- Best bet: West Ham to keep a clean sheet at 13/8
Odds correct as of 1700 BST on 07/07/20
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