Football betting tips: Europa League
2pts Under 2.5 Goals at 5/6 (General)
1pt Bruno Fernandes to score anytime at 6/4 (Sky Bet)
Real Sociedad v Manchester United
- Thursday, 17:55 GMT on BT Sport 1
- Match odds: Home 9/4 | Draw 12/5 | Away 11/10
Real Sociedad are enjoying another successful season in La Liga, currently sitting in fifth position after they edged past Getafe at the weekend.
However, Infogol’s expected league suggests Sociedad’s performances this season have been good enough to sit higher, occupying second based on expected points (xP).
This is mostly because they continue to impress defensively, conceding an average of 0.96 expected goals against (xGA) per game this term – the best defensive process in La Liga.
La Reale were as solid at the back during the Europa League group stage, allowing just 0.87 xGA per game across their six matches and holding eventual group winners Napoli to just 1.00 and 0.80 xG in their two meetings.
Poor finishing was the only reason they finished as runners up, scoring just five times in the group despite racking up chances equating to 14.8 expected goals for (xGF). That's a remarkable underperformance that is unlikely to continue but, if it does, it could be the reason they exit the competition.
Nonetheless, given their defensive strengths they should prove to be tricky opposition against Manchester United, even if this clash is being played at a neutral venue, at the Allianz Arena in Munich.
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side will be disappointed to be playing Europa League football after they failed to make the grade in their Champions League group, finishing behind RB Leipzig and PSG.
That was despite two strong performances against those sides in the group stages, with United’s 5-0 dismantling of Leipzig undoubtedly their standout display (xG: MUN 3.20 - 0.46 RBL).
Since then, they’ve established themselves as away day specialists in the Premier League, and they’ll be hoping they can hit those lofty heights when playing on the continent.
United have won 60% of their league points total on the road this season, creating an average of 1.80 xGF per game - only Liverpool (1.94) and Manchester City (1.87) boast a better attacking process away from home.
However, United looked devoid of creativity away at West Brom most recently, creating just 0.61 xG against the struggling Baggies. It was a moment of inspiration from the transformative Bruno Fernandes that brought United level on that occasion and he will likely shoulder the responsibility of finding the back of the net once again.
The Portuguese has scored 14 goals (11.9 xG) this season, recording 0.54 xG per 95 minutes, and appears the most obvious source of goals for the visitors here. He is 6/4 to find the back of the net in Munich, an appealing price for such a prolific scorer - who is also on penalty duty.
Considering Sociedad’s respectable defensive record, though, and now that the Europa League is at the knockout stage, I’m predicting this game will be a low-scoring affair.
It seems likely there will be less than three goals, which makes the 5/6 widely available for UNDER 2.5 GOALS an attractive play to get behind.
Score prediction: Real Sociedad 1-1 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Real Sociedad vs Manchester United best bets
- 2pts Under 2.5 Goals at 5/6 (General)
- 1pt Bruno Fernandes to score anytime at 6/4 (Sky Bet)
Odds correct at 1500 GMT on 17/02/21
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