Manchester United need a win at Real Sociedad on Thursday to finish top of the group. Jake Osgathorpe selects a best bet.
This is a huge game for both teams, as it's for all the marbles.
A draw for Real Sociedad would be enough for them to finish top of the group, whereas only a win by a two-goal or greater margin will do for Manchester United.
Why is it so important to finish top of the group? Well, the winner of each group goes straight through to the quarter finals of the Europa League, while the runners-up have to play a two-legged last 16 tie (extra games) against a possible Champions League drop out (Barcelona, Juventus etc).
Kick-off time: 17:45 GMT, Thursday
TV Channel: BT Sport 1
Manchester United have been extremely impressive against minnows Sheriff Tiraspol and Omonia Nicosia, winning all four games by an xG aggregate of 13.2 - 1.9.
However, this is a much stiffer test, playing against one of Spain's better sides away from home.
I feel as though we can ignore the games against the minnows as they don't give us a good gauge as to where this United team are at, so instead, focusing on competitive domestic games could give us a better clue.
Since getting hammered by Manchester City, United have turned an impressive corner defensively.
In their five league games since that loss, Erik ten Hag's side have allowed an average of just 0.99 xGA per game, which highlights their solidity.
However, there is still a major issue offensively. Over that same period United have averaged a lowly 1.37 xGF per game, which is why they are yet to win in a comfortable fashion.
They have got into an unhealthy habit of shooting from distance, which is not condusive for consistently good attacking outputs. 51% of their shots across the last five league games have been from outside the box, while they have generated just five big chances (0.35+ xG).
That is not a good thing, if they are to really excel, United need to start creating more better chances. Over this stretch the average xG per shot has been 0.08, meaning every shot United took had around an 8% chance of going in.
So, United are solid defensively but struggling in attack, so UNDER 2.5 GOALS therefore appeals at even money, and we haven't even touched on hosts Real Sociedad.
In the Europa League, La Real have allowed just 0.55 xGA per game, and domestically they are shipping 1.30 xGA per game which ranks fourth best.
Given the state of play, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Real Sociedad lean on their defence, which could be another factor in a low-scoring game.
Real Sociedad v Manchester United best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Under 2.5 Goals at evens (Betfair, Betvictor)
Score prediction: Real Sociedad 0-1 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 1500 BST (01/11/22)
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