2pts Antonio Rüdiger 2+ total shots at 9/2 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
0.5pt Antonio Rüdiger to score from outside the box at 66/1 (bet365)
A repeat of last season's Champions League final sees Real Madrid taking on Borussia Dortmund in a contest that should end with the same outcome.
Dortmund's campaign so far has been so typically Dortmund with a great win one game followed up by defeat in the next. Even by their own standards, it's quite remarkable.
In a two-week period, Nuri Şahin's side lost 5-1 to Stuttgart, beat Bochum 4-2, hammered Celtic 7-1 and then lost 2-1 away to Union Berlin.
It's hardly ideal as they travel to a Real Madrid team who really need victory following a surprise loss away at Lille prior to the latest international break.
All six of their last competitive home games have ended in victory, with each delivering at least two goals for the hosts. Given Dortmund's creativity issues on the road under Şahin, the visitors should have plenty of problems.
One of the multiple areas in which Dortmund will be outmuscled comes at set-pieces. It's no real surprise that Real have established themselves as one of the best in Spain at attacking them.
It's made worse by the potential absence of Niklas Süle again. He missed Friday's win over St. Pauli and opposition centre-back Eric Smith saw two shots - his goal a remarkable long range effort which found the top corner.
All three Union Berlin centre-backs took a shot the week prior, two of which were on target (Kevin Vogt did find the net from the penalty spot). Given that Real can run up the corner count, there's every chance of more defender success.
I'm happy to side with the best price of 9/2 with a couple of bookmakers for ANTONIO RÜDIGER 2+ TOTAL SHOTS, with the 7/2 elsewhere also fine.
Rüdiger's returned at least one shot in each of his two European outings this season - a goal coming in the 3-1 win over Stuttgart in mid-September.
In LaLiga, six of his nine starts have seen at least one shot, with contests against Las Palmas and Real Valladolid delivering two in each.
Dortmund conceded three shots to a centre-back in Club Brugge's Brandon Mechele on Matchday 1 with all of those as a result of set-piece situations.
Not only does Rüdiger deliver a significant threat from attacking corners and free-kicks, but we've seen multiple times in the past his desire to try, frankly, ridiculous shots from distance.
On that topic, I'll have a smaller-stakes play on the 66/1 for RÜDIGER TO SCORE FROM OUTSIDE THE BOX.
A big ask, of course, and especially one for a centre-back, but then we can factor in that 27% of his total shots across La Liga and Champions League appearances in 23/24 and 24/25 have come from range.
Real Madrid remain without defensive duo David Alaba and Dani Carvajal while forward Brahim Díaz is also unavailable.
In Carvajal's absence, Lucas Vazquez is expected to continue at right-back.
Dortmund have more issues to deal with as Karim Adeyemi remains sidelined with a thigh injury.
Julien Duranville, Yan Couto and Giovanni Reyna are also definitely unavailable for Şahin, with Pascal Groß and Süle unlikely to feature.
Real Madrid XI: Courtois; Vazquez, Militao, Rüdiger, Mendy; Bellingham, Tchouameni, Valverde; Rodrygo, Mbappe, Vinicius Jr.
Borussia Dortmund XI: Kobel; Ryerson, Anton, Schlotterbeck, Bensebaini; Can, Sabitzer; Malen, Brandt, Bynoe-Gittens; Guirassy.
Odds correct at 1330 BST (21/10/24)
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