Football betting tips: Spanish Super Cup Final
1pt Over 3.5 goals at 5/4 (Betfred)
1pt Jude Bellingham to score anytime at 17/5 (Unibet)
1pt Jules Kounde 2+ fouls committed at 13/8 (Betfair)
*All bets in 90 minutes
BuildABet @ 12/1
- Real Madrid to lift the trophy
- Over 3.5 goals
- Jude Bellingham to score anytime
- Jules Kounde 2+ fouls committed
We've got the final everyone wanted. An El Clasico Super Cup for the third straight season.
Barcelona eased past Athletic Bilbao 2-0 and Real Madrid beat Mallorca 3-0 in the semis, setting up the big showdown, with it 1-1 in Super Cup wins over the last two campaigns.
The excitement ahead of this one will be even greater than usual with both sides looking to be among the best in Europe and the fact Barcelona blew the doors off Real 4-0 in the league meeting in Madrid earlier this season.
Superstars like Kylian Mbappe, Jude Bellingham, Vinicius Jr, Lamine Yamal and Robert Lewandowski helps drum up the excitement also.
What are the best bets?
Goals should absolutely be on the cards here.
While the line is set high, I do think there is value in backing OVER 3.5 GOALS at 5/4.
The firepower on show is simply frightening, and both defences are extremely vulnerable. The last two finals between the pair in Saudi Arabia finished 3-1 and 4-1, with gung-ho football the way to go.
Overall, the last 11 competitive Clasico's have averaged 3.73 goals per game, with Over 3.5 Goals landing in eight of those.
Add into this the fact that Madrid will want to thump and embarrass Barca the way the Catalonians did at the Bernabeu earlier in the season, and it could be a real high-scorer.
JUDE BELLINGHAM is absolutely flying at the moment after a slow start to the season, and his price of 17/5 TO SCORE ANYTIME looks well worth investing in.
After returning from injury in September, Bellingham went 10 games without a goal for Madrid, registering just one assist in that time too, but he exploded into life in early November.
In his last 10 league and Champions League matches, Bellingham has scored in eight of them, providing four assists too. He also netted in the Super Cup semi-final, meaning he is on some run, and it's perhaps no coincidence that his upturn in form is down to a tactical tweak from Carlo Ancelotti.
The Italian started the season naming what could only be described as cagey XI's, playing games with four midfielders behind Vinicius Jr and Mbappe for example, but since early November he's moved to a 4-2-3-1, with Bellingham thriving in the number 10 role.
Madrid appear to have found more balance in this system, winning eight and drawing one of those 11 matches, led by Bellingham's exploits.
The ex-Birmingham midfielder is a man for the big occasion too, only adding more confidence to this bet. Bellingham settled both Clasicos last season in emphatic fashion. In Barcelona he scored a brace including a 92nd minute winner, and the Bernabeu he scored a 91st minute winner.
I also have to back Barcelona right-back JULES KOUNDE TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS at a huge 13/8.
It's mainly down to the fact he'll be up against arguably the world's best direct dribbler here, Vinicius Jr. The Brazilian winger has won an average of 3.36 fouls per 90 this season.
Across the last eight Clasico's, the right back opposing Vini has committed 2+ fouls six times, being carded in five of those contests.
Also in our favour is the fact that Lamine Yamal will be playing in front of Kounde, and while his work rate is excellent, the youngster's focus is on creating chances, which could leave Kounde one-vs-one regularly.
That could spell serious trouble, especially given the French full-back's record against top direct dribblers. In six games against such opponents, he has made 2+ fouls. Those have come against Jeremy Doku (twice), Inaki Williams, Serge Gnabry and Vinicius himself in the first Clasico of the season.
Team news
Real Madrid are without both Eder Militao and Dani Carvajal through injury, while the formers' stand-in Aurelien Tchouameni came off against Mallorca meaning Carlo Ancelotti has a selection headache in defence.
Lucas Vazquez should again start at right back in Carvajal's absence, but it remains to be seen if centre-back David Alaba is fit enough to start after overcoming a lengthy injury. He was on the bench for the semi final. If he isn't and Tchouameni doesn't recover, young defender Raul Asencio could be called upon, having replaced the Frenchman on Thursday.
Luka Modric missed the semi through injury so could be in contention here, and despite an impending two-game suspension in La Liga, Vinicius Junior is available for this final.
Barcelona continue to be without starting goalkeeper Marc-Andre Ter Stegen, meaning Wojciech Szczesny should again start in goal having replaced the dropped Inaki Pena. Andreas Christensen and Hector Fort are out here.
Dani Olmo and Pau Victor, both subject of registration issues by La Liga, have been given temporary registration for this competition so both are available.
Predicted line-ups
Real Madrid: Courtois; Vazquez, Rudiger, Alaba, Mendy; Valverde, Camavinga; Rodrygo, Bellingham, Vinicius Jr; Mbappe
Barcelona: Szczesny; Kounde, Cubarsi, Martinez, Balde; Casado, Pedri, Gavi; Raphinha, Lewandowski, Yamal
Odds correct at 1520 GMT (10/01/25)
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