Real Madrid v Man City tips: Champions League best bets and preview

By Joe Townsend

Football

Wed May 04, 2022 · 3y ago

Manchester City head to Real Madrid protecting a one-goal advantage from the first leg of their Champions League semi-final tie. Joe Townsend previews the game, selecting two best bets.

Football betting tips: Champions League

2.5pts Manchester City most corners at 8/11 (Paddy Power, Betfair)

1pt Manchester City (-1) corner handicap at 6/5 (Paddy Power, Betfair)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Manchester City’s 4-3 win in the opening leg of this tie was quickly labelled by swathes of the media as one of the greatest matches in Champions League history.

That kind of hyperbole is often rife in the immediate aftermath of a good game. In reality it was hugely one-sided, with Real Madrid needing an incredible amount of fortune to go into the second leg only one goal down.

Karim Benzema, who has been nothing short of phenomenal this season, scored against the run of the play after City swept into an early lead before John Stones - already playing as makeshift right-back - limped off injured.

After Pep Guardiola’s side re-established a two-goal lead, Vinicius Junior exploited the use of emergency right-back Fernandinho to race past him and score. At 4-2 it looked as though City would finally keep, or even extend, the significant advantage they deserved. Instead Aymeric Laporte inexplicably handballed in the box to allow Benzema to panenka home.

In terms of non-penalty expected goals (xG) it was City 3.23-1.09 Real.

Real Madrid v Man City (agg: 3-4)

Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Wednesday

TV channel: BT Sport 2

Home 11/5 | Draw 29/10 | Away 21/20

Carlo Ancelotti’s Spanish champions deserve credit for grinding their way to this stage, but both PSG and Chelsea should have knocked them out. Over five knockout-stage games their expected goal difference (xGD) is -4.43.

City are far superior to Real Madrid. If they didn't only need a draw to progress, the best price of 11/10 about an away win would tempt me. In the exact same situation, now the away goals rule no longer exists, City were 3/4 to win at Atletico in the last round. Real are better, but that is a big jump.

However the most comparable price probably comes from City's opening away game in this season's competition when they travelled to PSG and were generally priced at 13/10 without the added complication of a draw being all they needed.

The quality gap between the sides should transfer to the corner count, and that is something I'm happy to back.

In 53 matches this season, only once have Manchester City had fewer corners than their opponent. On just three other occasions it’s been a tie, meaning City have had the most corners in 92% of matches in 2021/22.

The 8/11 that Paddy Power and Betfair are offering for MAN CITY MOST CORNERS therefore feels very generous - it’s a bet general priced at closer to 1/2. Those same firms have MAN CITY -1 CORNER HANDICAP available at 6/5, another selection I’m keen to get onside.

As the team usually in the ascendancy, despite Ancelotti’s preference for a low defensive block Madrid still usually win the corner battle - but on a far less consistent basis than City.

In their La Liga-clinching 4-0 win over Espanyol at the weekend they lost the corner count 9-6, while their previous game at the Santiago Bernabeu saw Chelsea take it 6-1 in their extra-time clash.

Real have gone further than they should have, and their run should end on Wednesday night. A Manchester City win is expected and while that may not be totally comfortable, the corner battle should be.

Real Madrid v Man City best bets and score prediction

2.5pts Manchester City most corners at 8/11 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt Manchester City (-1) corner handicap at 6/5 (Paddy Power, Betfair)

Score prediction: Real Madrid 1-2 Man City (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)

Odds correct at 1830 BST (03/05/22)

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.

Like what you've read?