Real Madrid v Atalanta is set up perfectly with the Spaniards holding a 1-0 lead. Jake Osgathorpe previews the second leg, and has a 12/5 best bet.
Football betting tips: Real Madrid v Atalanta
1pt Atalanta to qualify at 3/1 (BetVictor)
We were robbed of a decent first leg by an early red card in Bergamo, with Remo Freuler getting his marching orders after just 17 minutes following a dubious ‘last man’ call by the referee.
That put the attack-minded Atalanta on the back-foot immediately, and meant Real Madrid had a very easy match from a defensive stand-point.
Los Blancos really did struggle to break down 10 men, needing an 86th minute long-range strike from Ferland Mendy to get an away goal and a lead heading into this second leg.
Real still far from convincing
Despite coming into this game unbeaten in eight matches across all competitions, Real continue to be underwhelming, even against lesser opponents.
They fielded a very strong XI at the weekend in a home match against Elche, including Sergio Ramos and Karim Benzema, but needed a 91st-minute winner.
Real Sociedad and Atletico Madrid have recently drawn with this Real side, and both created plenty of opportunities. This isn’t the same side that won three consecutive Champions League titles.
The early Atalanta sending-off meant they weren’t tested in the first leg, but this functional Madrid team now need to be ready for an onslaught.
And they may struggle to handle it.
State of tie suits Atalanta
The Italians got to play on Friday night ahead of this tie, so have had an extra day’s rest compared to Real. They won at a canter against Spezia as opposed to Zinedine Zidane’s side being pushed all the way.
Atalanta are renowned as an attacking force, and last season’s quarter-finalists will now get a chance to show it as the state of the tie means they have to play to their strengths. La Dea must score, meaning the handbrake will be off from the first minute.
Gian Piero Gasperini’s side also know that, if they score two, they are in command of the tie.
I make this a strong possibility given what Atalanta are capable of.
Atalanta have impressed away from home
Despite playing on the road, Atalanta shouldn’t fear their far more decorated opponents, as only two sides have a better away expected goals (xG) process in Serie A this season.
Moreover, they have actually won all of three of their Champions League away matches this season, without conceding, while being winless at home.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
They thrashed group minnows Midtjylland 4-0 before beating Liverpool 2-0 at Anfield and Ajax 1-0 in Amsterdam.
Although it is a small sample size, their expected goals figures from across those three games are incredibly encouraging, averaging 1.63 expected goals for (xGF) and 0.57 expected goals against (xGA).
Replicating those numbers would give them a fantastic chance of progressing through to the next round, and I think they are overpriced to do so.
The likes of Cadiz, Alaves, Levante and Shakhtar Donetsk have all beaten Real on their own patch already this season, and Atalanta are generally priced around 12/5 to win this game.
But if you think they will win, then it is worth taking them in the 'to qualify' market.
Only a 1-0 Atalanta win doesn't guarantee them qualifying, while any other win would see them progressing on away goals.
You can back ATALANTA TO QUALIFY at a best price of 3/1 and that to me is a value bet.
Real Madrid v Atalanta best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Atalanta to qualify at 3/1 (BetVictor)
Score prediction: Real Madrid 1-2 Atalanta (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Odds correct at 1600 GMT (15/03/21)
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