Rangers' hopes of Europa League progression rest on Thursday night's trip to group leaders Real Betis. Michael Beardmore provides the preview and his best bet.
Football betting tips: Europa League
1pt John Lundstram over 1.5 shots at 10/3 (bet365)
- Michael Beardmore (@MickeyBeardmore) is +27pts in profit for the 2023-24 season
Phillipe Clement's Rangers head to Spain knowing only victory over Betis would ensure their place in the Europa League knockout stages - with the added bonus of guaranteeing them a bye in the last 32 due to winning their group.
Any other result would leave the door open for third-placed Sparta Prague - who visit the group's bottom side, already-eliminated Aris Limassol - to leapfrog the Gers and snatch second spot.
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The scenario for Rangers, boiled down, is simply this: win and finish top, get a last-32 bye; finish second and face one of the teams dropping down from the Champions League; finish third and drop into the Europa Conference League.
It's a similar picture for Betis, although the extra point they hold over Rangers means they need only a draw to top the group, unless Sparta win and overturn an inferior goal difference of three. But if they lose, a Sparta victory will demote Betis to third.
What are the best bets?
In these situations, so many markets are best avoided given so much can depend on what happens elsewhere. Results, unders/overs, corners and plenty of others really could go either way depending on game state both in Spain and Cyprus.
If Sparta go ahead early in Limassol and these sides get wind of it, this game could devolve into an end-to-end goalfest. If Sparta fall behind, a draw might suit both, albeit neither will want to face a UCL drop-out and would prefer a group-winner bye.
Additionally, both sides are in excellent form - Rangers unbeaten in 13, winning 10, while Betis have been beaten just once in their past 17 matches and held Real Madrid in La Liga at the weekend. The outcome, and manner of it, is best avoided.
Instead, my eye is drawn to what, on the face of it, looks an excellent price on Gers midfielder JOHN LUNDSTRAM TO HAVE OVER 1.5 SHOTS at 10/3 with bet365.
The reasoning behind this is threefold - firstly, Lundstram has attempted two shots in each of Rangers' past two Europa League trips (eight shots across five UEL games overall) and, secondly, he is a man who almost always plays 90 minutes.
Thirdly, no Rangers player has unleashed more shots from distance than Lundstram this season - in a game that could be tight and cagey for spells, having a player on side who likes a pop from range is advisable.
In a tough match to call, backing the former Sheffield United man to pull the trigger twice (just shots, remember, they don't have to be on target) - having registered 27 efforts in his past 18 games - looks a good value play.
BuildABet @ 23/1
- John Lundstram 2+ shots
- James Tavernier 1+ shots on target
- Marc Roca 2+ fouls
CLICK HERE to back with Sky Bet
My gut feeling is that Rangers are going to have to go for it at some point in this game. As well as including the aforementioned shot-happy John Lundstram on our BuildABet, we can add James Tavernier to our selections.
The wing-back also likes to let fly and takes set-pieces too. He's also more accurate than Lundstram, having tested the keeper 13 times in 21 Scottish Premiership and Europa League matches this term. He's 7/4 for an SoT if you fancy the single.
Rounding off our BAB is Betis' former Leeds midfielder Marc Roca, who is averaging a hefty 2.1 fouls per game this season.
Score prediction: Real Betis 1-1 Rangers (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Team news
Rangers boss Phillipe Clement will continue to be without midfielders Tom Lawrence, Nicolas Raskin and Ryan Jack for the trip while striker Danilo is also sidelined.
Midfielder Jose Cifuentes was sent off against Dundee at the weekend but his pending domestic suspension will not affect his availability here.
Manuel Pellegrini's hosts, meanwhile, have a host of injury problems in midfield with Nabil Fekir and William Carvalho out, while Guido Rodriguez is struggling with an ankle issue. Defenders Marc Bartra and Youssouf Sabaly are ruled out too.
Predicted line-ups
Real Betis: Rui Silva; Aitor Ruibal, Pezzella, Juan Miranda, Abner; Marc Roca, Guardado, Isco; Diao, Ayoze Perez, Ezzalzouli
Rangers: Butland; Tavernier, Souttar, Balogun, Barisic; Lundstram, Cifuentes, Cantwell; McCausland, Dessers, Sima
Match facts
- Real Betis have lost their last two UEFA Europa League games against Scottish opponents (2-3 vs Celtic in 2021 and 0-1 vs Rangers earlier this season). Their only home game did end in victory however, a 4-3 win over Celtic in 2021-22.
- Rangers have never won an away match in major European competition in Spain in 13 attempts (D3 L10), failing against eight different teams (Sevilla, Real Madrid, Real Zaragoza, Athletic Club, Valencia, Osasuna, Villarreal and Barcelona).
- Real Betis have won their last two home UEFA Europa League matches, last winning three in a row in major European competition between 1998 and 2002 (a run of six).
- Rangers are unbeaten in their last three UEFA Europa League matches (W1 D2), their best unbeaten run in major European competition since a run of seven between October 2021 and March 2022.
- Against Aris Limassol on MD5, Rangers' Ross McCausland became the youngest Northern Irish player (20 years, 202 days) to score in major European competition since Michael O'Neill - in 1989 in the UEFA Cup (20 years, 118 days) - who had given McCausland his Northern Ireland debut earlier that month
Odds correct 1300 GMT (13/12/23)
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