Liam Kelly looks at Sunday's Sky Bet Championship match, with Reading in desperate need of a win to gain a play-off place.
Football betting tips: Reading v Swansea
2pts Reading to win at 5/4 (General)
While Swansea look assured of a place in the Sky Bet Championship play-offs, Reading's hopes of finishing in the top six have been severely dented after gaining just eight points in their last eight matches.
The Royals were held to a midweek 0-0 draw by a Luton side that have little to play for, making this fixture a must-win game for the home team, whereas a draw would suit Swansea just fine.
Swansea can count themselves fortunate to be in a play-off position given their performances, though, posting mediocre underlying numbers for much of the Championship season.
That won't count for much at this point of the campaign given their position in the table, but it does give us a solid idea of how good Swansea actually are.
Steve Cooper's men sit 11th in Infogol's expected goals (xG) table, which calculates the position a team 'deserves' to be in based on displays thus far, with opponents Reading lying seventh in the same metric.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
In fact, despite some positive results, the Swans hold a negative expected goal difference (-xGD) when playing on the road, and face a Reading side that excel on their own patch.
As a result, it's surprising to see READING available at 5/4 to win this game at the Madejski Stadium, especially given the home team's desperation for three points.
Reading might even have the talent edge over Swansea, with the likes of Michael Olise, Ovie Ejaria, Lucas Joao and Yakou Meite all having an excellent season in forward areas.
Swansea, meanwhile, have struggled to create scoring chances for a club so high in the league table, relying on an overperformance in defence to keep them in the hunt.
Veljko Paunovic’s side may have been lucky to start the season so well, but their subsequent freefall has been a little more extreme than their displays deserve.
I'd back Reading to extend their hopes for play-off football here.
Reading v Swansea best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Reading to win at 5/4 (General)
Score prediction: Reading 2-0 Swansea (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct at 1200 BST (23/04/21)
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