Manchester City begin their Champions League knockout stages with a trip to Leipzig. Tom Carnduff picks out a best bet.
While Leipzig find themselves trailing in the pursuit of Bayern's crown in the Bundesliga, this fixture marks the third time in the last four years where they've reached the knockout rounds of the Champions League.
A two-legged tie against Manchester City at this early stage would have been way down their wishlist, but they can hold some confidence of a potential result having beaten Real Madrid here in their Group F encounter.
City's confidence shouldn't have taken too much of a hit following their draw with Nottingham Forest last weekend. The 23 shots and 3.21 xG should have ended in three points, but that is the nature of football when you don't convert chances.
Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Wednesday
TV channel: BT Sport 1
While games involving Pep Guardiola's side are often expected to be fairly one-sided, Leipzig do have the quality - and arguably more importantly the desire - to hurt City defensively.
Ultimately, if the German outfit are to progress, they know the importance of a positive result here. It only plays into City's hands if they are to sit back and try to sneak a 1-0, and fortunately for the neutral it's not exactly in their nature either.
In their 21 Bundesliga and Champions League contests under Marco Rose, Leipzig have scored 49 goals from 41.9 xG. That's a significant average of 1.99 xGF per game.
We won't focus too much on City's defensive numbers given the lesser quality of their opponents in away group stage matches. Copenhagen and Sevilla aren't anywhere near their level, while Dortmund generated 1.02 xGF in their 0-0 draw back in October.
This is a long way around saying this will be a competitive fixture, and that means it's worth a gamble on the 23/10 best price for OVER 10.5 CORNERS.
There were a total of 13 in Real's visit in October - the same day that City were last in Germany - while we also saw the same figure during RBL's league win over Dortmund. That was Rose's first game at the helm.
This market is dependant on game state and needing both sides to play their part. It's probably not a bet I'd be interested in for the second leg - although I suppose that depends on the aggregate score - but this game looks like it provides value.
Leipzig are also a strong team at set-piece situations, and even with City's relative success at defending them in the Premier League, the hosts may also look to this as a route for success.
This game has the potential to be highly-entertaining, and we'd give Leipzig a slightly higher chance than their best price of 19/5 suggests, but the better play looks to be in backing the CORNERS count to hit double figures and a bit more.
RB Leipzig v Manchester City best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Over 10.5 corners at 23/10 (BoyleSports)
Score prediction: RB Leipzig 1-1 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 1600 GMT (20/02/23)
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