Football betting tips: Champions League
1pt RB Leipzig to beat Liverpool at 2/1
1pt Amadou Haidara to score anytime at 8/1
0.5pts Amadou Haidara to score first at 20/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
RB Leipzig v Liverpool
- 20:00 GMT on BT Sport 2
- Match odds: Home 2/1 | Draw 13/5 | Away 5/4
Liverpool's disastrous 2021 continued in the East Midlands on Saturday as Leicester secured a 3-1 victory in their Premier League encounter. At the time of writing, Liverpool remain in the top-four but, by their own admission, they are now in a battle to secure Champions League football next season.
The hectic fixture list and packed medical room is far from ideal and the last thing the Reds will have wanted at this stage is a trip to Budapest to face a Leipzig side who have established themselves as the main challengers to Bayern's dominance of the Bundesliga.
Under Julian Nagelsmann, Die Roten Bullen are tactically smart. They have switched between four or five different formations throughout the course of the campaign and they aren't afraid to change mid-game. It's almost guesswork on the system, but we can predict a form of 3-5-2 based on recent weeks.
Even with the loss of home advantage, and this game becoming an away trip for both teams, the 2/1 available on a Leipzig victory looks too generous given the contrasting form. Over the last ten games, Liverpool are 17th in the Premier League. In the same period, Leipzig sit fourth in the Bundesliga charts - level on points with Freiburg who take third on goal difference.
The Champions League could provide a welcome distraction for Liverpool but it is much easier said than done. A team massively out of form with decreasing player availability almost need a miracle to progress to the latter stages. Leipzig are worth backing because of that value - it is too good to turn down.
The Reds may win, we can't rule that out and they've overcome adversity during the Jurgen Klopp era. We can't argue with the statistics though and they paint an accurate picture of both performance and results in the past couple of months.
Even in recent draws, the Infogol expected goals model demonstrates how Leipzig had the better of the opportunities. A 2-2 draw with Wolfsburg saw Nagelsmann's side win the xG battle by a scoreline of 2.24 to 0.83 and the same can be said for the 0-0 draw with Koln (1.92 - 0.49).
The Infogol expected table based on performance also has Leipzig top of the Bundesliga charts. They are not playing like a side that the 2/1 price suggests and they have a great chance of a first leg advantage to take back to Anfield - a venue where opposition teams are enjoying increasing success.
Leipzig's loss of Timo Werner has led to a lack of a main goalscorer but numerous people have stepped up to ensure the goals are more evenly spread across the line-up. Six players have scored four of more goals across the Bundesliga and Champions League this season.
One of those not involved in that group but who remains good value in the goalscorer market is Amadou Haidara. He scored in the win over Manchester United and has four on his tally if you include the DFB Pokal. Having featured in an attacking midfield role in recent weeks, there is every chance he grabs another here.
One stand-out feature of Haidara's season is that his goals return doesn't necessarily reflect his attacking contribution. He has seen 25 shots in the Bundesliga this season but just one goal. His Expected Goals rate standing at a much higher 2.23 shows how he hasn't capitalised as much as he should have.
It's also a noticeable aspect of his Champions League performances. Having missed the first two games of the group stage, he posted seven shots across the remaining four fixtures. Haidara netted in the crucial win over Manchester United and finished with an xG figure of 1.19 for that part of the European campaign. While they may not seem high, it's worth remembering that he has averaged an xG of around 0.3 per game in this competition.
The midfielder has also averaged 1.00 shots on target per Champions League game and that is worth remembering with Betfair offering 15/8 on Haidara having one effort on target here. Rather than take the shots price though, the goalscorer odds available with Unibet (8/1 anytime) just looks a tad too generous.
There is also a case for the 20/1 on that goal being the first of the game. Leipzig have netted first in nine of their last ten in all competitions and we all know the defensive problems that Liverpool are currently facing. The Oddschecker grid highlights the value remains elsewhere with 5/1 on a goal across the 90 minutes and 16/1 on the first goal with other bookmakers.
The contrasting form of the two sides make Leipzig look a really good value option here with Nagelsmann demonstrating that he is capable of getting results against some of Europe's best. An away goal will be crucial for Liverpool and you wouldn't back against them getting it, but they could be carrying an aggregate deficit back to Anfield for the second leg.
Score prediction: RB Leipzig 2-1 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
RB Leipzig v Liverpool best bets
- RB Leipzig to beat Liverpool at 2/1
- Amadou Haidara to score anytime at 8/1
- Amadou Haidara to score first at 20/1
Odds correct at 1030 GMT (15/02/21)
Opta facts
- This is the first competitive encounter between RB Leipzig and Liverpool. However, this is Leipzig’s third English opponent in the UEFA Champions League since the start of 2020, eliminating Tottenham in last season’s round of 16 (4-0 on aggregate) and finishing ahead of Manchester Utd in this season’s group stages (5-0 defeat away and 3-2 win at home).
- None of RB Leipzig’s 22 UEFA Champions League games has ended goalless – that’s more than any other side in the history of the competition.
- Penalties excluded (1 goal each), the 19 combined goals scored by RB Leipzig and Liverpool in this season’s UEFA Champions League have all come from open play.
- In the UEFA Champions League this season, RB Leipzig have allowed their opponents only 8.9 passes on average before intervening defensively (PPDA), the lowest average of any side in the competition this season, highlighting their intense pressing regimen.
- RB Leipzig wing-back Angeliño has had a hand in six UEFA Champions League goals this season (3 goals & 3 assists) – the only Spaniard with more goal involvements in the competition this season is Juventus’s Álvaro Morata (7, 6 goals & 1 assist).
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