Rangers host Danish side Brondby in what is now a pivotal point in their Europa League campaign. Jake Pearson previews the match, picking out his best bet and score prediction.
Rangers currently sit bottom of Group A with zero points after defeats at home to Lyon and away at Sparta Prague.
Steven Gerrard’s side are yet to create a ‘big chance’ (a chance with a 35% or higher chance of being scored) in the Europa League so far, and have averaged just 8.5 shots per game, the joint-third lowest in this season’s competition.
Fortunately for them, their opponents are one of the only two other teams yet to score in the Europa League this term, and in fact sit bottom of the table in terms of shots per game, averaging a lowly five.
It has been a poor start to the season all round for Brondby in fact, last season’s Danish champions currently occupying sixth place in the Superligaen, having won just three of their 12 league fixtures so far this term. Only four teams have conceded more goals than Brondby, while five have scored more.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Thursday
TV channel: BT Sport 3
This then looks a good opportunity for Rangers, who currently reside at the head of proceedings in the Scottish Premier League, to claim their first win of the campaign, and put themselves two points clear of their opponents, who did manage a 0-0 draw against Sparta Prague in their opener.
It is a tough task for either of these sides to finish in the top two, and therefore qualify for the knock-out stages, but third place does drop into the Europa Conference League.
Rangers are fancied to win this game, and so they should be, but at around 1/2 they make little appeal, particularly given their lack of creativity in this competition so far.
The appeal comes in the corners market, something that is directly linked to a team’s creativity levels.
Chances, shots, Expected Goals: the higher a team rank in these metrics, the higher their corner count usually is, and these two rank low in just about every attacking metric going.
Shots has already been mentioned, but in terms of chances created, only three teams rank lower than Rangers in terms of Expected Goals For across the competition so far, and one of those in Brondby, who rank bottom, with 0.6 xGF generated across two matches.
A lack of chances will ultimately deplete the corner count, and that has already been evident in the four Europa League games these two have played so far.
In Rangers v Lyon the corner count finished 3-3, while in their game against Sparta the Scottish side won 5-3, both games easily returning fewer than ten flag-kicks.
Brondy, meanwhile, have won just two corners all competition, both against Sparta, with Lyon not conceding any against the Danes.
The highest match corner count in any game involving these two so far has been eight, and that means backing UNDER 10 CORNERS at an odds-against price of 11/10 is a no-brainer.
Rangers v Brondby best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Under 10 Corners at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Rangers 1-0 Brondby (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 1110 BST (20/10/21)
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