After another profitable night last Thursday, Joe Rindl returns with the preview and a best bet for QPR's match with Peterborough.
QPR will try and reverse their slump in form as they take on bottom club Peterborough United in Sunday’s early Championship match in front of the TV cameras.
Only a win will keep Rangers in the top six this weekend, the pressure will be on with their play-off rivals all playing 24 hours earlier and hoping to put down a marker.
Mark Warburton’s side have struggled lately, a feeling which is seemingly matched by many of the Championship’s high-flyers, with no single team able to worry top two Fulham and Bournemouth.
QPR have two wins from their past nine and though they were impressive against Luton in a 2-1 come-from-behind win last weekend, they were deservedly beaten 3-1 by Nottingham Forest in midweek (2.42 - 1.47 xG).
Will their easiest fixture on paper - at home to the team bottom of the Championship - be the match where the London club recapture their form and make their final play-off push?
Kick-off time: 12:30 GMT, Friday
TV channel: Sky Sports Football
Peterborough have gone a mammoth 15 matches since recording their last win in the Championship, and are fortunate to only be seven points adrift of safety.
The Posh have certainly improved since former Hull boss Grant McCann replaced Darren Ferguson in the dugout, picking up draws against Bournemouth and Stoke this month.
But their latest fixture summed up their season. Leading Swansea 2-1 on Wednesday they conceded twice in the final 19 minutes to fall to their 24th defeat of the season.
However you spin it, Peterborough are deservedly bottom of the table. They have the worst expected goal difference (xGD) in the Championship and have lost the expected goals (xG) battle in each of their past seven fixtures.
I’m backing QPR TO WIN TO NIL in this fixture based not on QPR’s form but Peterborough’s.
Admittedly, the hosts have not kept a clean sheet in nine matches, and have averaged an xGA of 1.30 this season.
But Peterborough’s goal scoring record is tragic. Only Barnsley, have created an xGF total fewer than the visitors’ 33.6 across 37 games.
And that form has only got worse in recent weeks with Peterborough creating chances accumulating to more than 0.83 xG just twice in their last seven fixtures.
QPR to win to nil at 13/8 with Sky Bet is the play to make.
QPR v Peterborough best bets and score prediction
- 1pt QPR to win to nil at 13/8 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: QPR 2-0 Peterborough (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 1600 GMT (18/03/22)
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