QPR host Nottingham Forest on Friday night in the Sky Bet Championship, and Jake Pearson thinks it could be a thoroughly entertaining affair.
Football betting tips: Sky Bet Championship
1pt Over 2.5 Goals at 10/11 (William Hill, Mansion Bet)
Only once in the last six seasons have Queens Park Rangers amassed more points through 14 matches than they have this campaign, Mark Warburton’s men still looking genuine play-off contenders past the quarter mark in the season.
Warburton has made the Rs a thoroughly enjoyable team to follow as well, scoring 25 goals this season, behind only Fulham and West Brom, and the most a QPR side has scored at this stage of the season since 2010/11, though defensively they have been suspect, conceding the fourth-most goals in the Sky Bet Championship (22).
Nottingham Forest by contrast made a poor start to the season, failing to win any of their opening seven matches, costing Chris Hughton his job.
Steve Cooper has turned things around since his arrival however, and Forest have lost just one league game since the former Swansea boss took charge, and that came against second-placed Fulham.
Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Friday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
QPR 11/10 | Draw 12/5 | Nottingham Forest 5/2
Cooper has done more than just transform results though, he now has Forest scoring plenty of goals as well, netting 11 times in the six games since he took charge, as opposed to seven in the previous eight.
The actual goals scored is an uplift, but even more stark is the increase in the chances Forest are creating. Under Hughton their expected goals for (xGF) average stood at 0.71 per game, with Forest failing to create more than 1.0 xGF in any of the eight games he oversaw, while under Cooper they are creating chances equating to 1.55 per match, including twice surpassing 2.0 xGF in a single game.
It is tempting to tip up Forest in this match, but their improvement under Cooper has not gone unnoticed by the bookmakers. Their average price under Hughton was a little over 9/4, but since Cooper took charge their average price has dropped to below 2/1.
The layers look to have gotten a handle on Cooper’s Forest, so we need to look away from the 1X2 market for a bet in this fixture.
Championship matches have averaged 2.54 goals this season, with 50% of them going over the 2.5 mark.
It is interesting then that the average price for Over 2.5 Goals this season sits at 2.13, while for Under 2.5 it is 1.74.
Indeed, had you backed Overs in every match this season you would have returned more than eight points profit to a one point level stake – in other words, you would be more than £80 up had you bet £10 on every game.
Given that 10 out of QPR’s 14 matches have seen three goals or more – the joint-most in the division – as well as nine of Forest’s 14, including five from six since Cooper took charge, it is surprising that OVER 2.5 GOALS is available at as big as 10/11.
These are two of the most watchable sides in the Championship currently, and there could be plenty of goals shared on Friday evening.
QPR v Nottingham Forest best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Over 2.5 Goals at 10/11 (William Hill, Mansion Bet)
Score prediction: QPR 1-2 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct at 1915 BST (26/10/21)
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