Arne Slot

PSV vs Liverpool betting tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview



Football betting tips: Champions League

2pts Under 3.5 cards at 4/5 (bet365)

0.5pt No cards at 14/1 (bet365)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair

https://m.skybet.com/football/competition-specials/league-phase-finale-ucl-specials-wed-29th-jan/35000135?aff=688&dcmp=SL_ED_FOOTBALL_CLBOOST

BuildABet @ 8/1

  • Both teams to score
  • Darwin Nunez to score or assist
  • Team most booking points - draw

Click here to back with Sky Bet


Kick-off: 20:00 GMT, Wednesday

TV: TNT Sports 3

Home 2/1 | Draw 11/4 | Away 11/10


England’s top side Liverpool take on the Netherlands' best PSV in the Champions League on Wednesday.

With a top-two spot already secured, this has very little riding on it for the visitors but a point will guarantee they 'win' the League Phase and a win maintains their 100% record.

Arne Slot’s side are unbeaten in five and have won their last three. They were dominant in their 4-1 win over Ipswich at the weekend but needed the aid of a deflection to beat 10-man Lille in their last European game.

With big games on the horizon, expect Liverpool to rotate. They have a trip to Bournemouth domestically at the weekend and the return leg of the Carabao Cup semi-final with Tottenham, which they trail 1-0, next midweek.

PSV’s spot in the knockout stages of this competition is all but guaranteed. A point here takes it out of the chasing pack's hands but with a few of the teams below them playing each other and Dinamo Zagreb needing an 11-goal swing to move ahead, they ought to be fine.

The Dutch club have had a relatively kind group-stage schedule taking nine points from their last four games against Girona, Shakhtar, Brest and Red Star; three of those teams sit outside the qualification spots.

The draw could be a runner on Wednesday. It suits everyone, there is not a great deal to play for anyway and it wouldn't be wise for Liverpool to go full strength.

The Reds laboured to victory in their last game but in backing the draw, we would be backing against the only unbeaten side in the competition. No thank you.

I think it is shrewder to instead side with a lack of cards. Take the sentiment from the draw; a lacklustre game, played at a pedestrian pace between rotated sides but dress it up in a different angle.


What are the best bets?

Harvey Elliott and Arne Slot
Harvey Elliott and Arne Slot

At 4/5 with 365 backing UNDER 3.5 CARDS is the main play but the 14/1 about NO CARD also appeals with the same firm.

Cards-wise, PSV have one of the poorer disciplinary records in the competition (18Y 1R) which is not ideal but as their group stage meanders to a close they should mellow out.

Only two of PSV’s games have seen under 3.5 cards click, one of which was their first game with Juventus (0 cards) and the other was their most recent game with Red Star (1 card).

Liverpool’s record is not much better (14Y 0R) as just two of their seven games have seen three or fewer cards. The Reds have picked up two or fewer in five of their games though.

Referee Tobias Stieler has a Champions League cards per game average of 4.2, hitting the unders line once this season and eight times in 18 games in total. He has also taken charge of two card-less games (11%).


Team news

The hosts will be without injured pair Sergino Dest and Malik Tillman as well as the suspended Ryan Flamingo.

Former Newcastle striker Luuk de Jong is expected to start up front with a support cast of Noa Lang, Guus Til and Johan Bakayoko.

Slot should rotate with Mohamed Salah, Virgil van Dijk and Trent Alexander-Arnold the three most likely to be given a rest.

After getting forced off at half-time against Lille, Curtis Jones will be assessed, Diogo Jota and Joe Gomez are ruled out with injuries.

Conor Bradley and Kostas Tsimikas should get the nod at full-back. Harvey Elliot could start in midfield and Darwin Nunez may lead the line.


Predicted line-ups

PSV: Benitez; Ledezma, Obispo, Boscagli, Mauro Jr; Til, Veerman, Schouten; Bakayoko, De Jong, Lang.

Liverpool: Kelleher; Bradley, Quansah, van Dijk, Tsimikas; Endo, Szoboszlai, Elliott; Salah, Nunez, Diaz.


Match facts

  • PSV have never beaten Liverpool in six previous attempts (D1 L5), the joint-most times they have faced an opponent in major European competition without ever winning (D2 L4 v Atlético de Madrid).
  • Liverpool have won each of their last five meetings with PSV in the UEFA Champions League, only beating Porto (6) more often in the competition.
  • PSV are unbeaten in each of their last 11 home games in major European competition (W6 D5), since a 2-1 loss to English side Leicester City in April 2022 in the UEFA Conference League.
  • Liverpool have won 12 of their last 15 away games in the UEFA Champions League (L3) with the Reds boasting the best win rate on the road in the competition since the 2021-22 campaign (85%).
  • PSV have won their last two home UEFA Champions League games, last winning three in a row in the 2015-16 group stages. They’ve netted 3+ goals in both wins, having only scored three goals in two of their previous 44 home games.
  • Liverpool are one of only two sides with a 100% away record in this season’s UEFA Champions League, along with Atalanta. Arne Slot is looking to become the fourth manager to win his first four away matches with a club, after Claudio Ranieri with Chelsea in 2003-04, Pep Guardiola with Bayern Munich in 2013-14 and Hans-Dieter Flick with Bayern Munich in 2019-20/2020-21.
  • If Mohamed Salah scores in this game, he will become the first player to score 50+ goals for an English club in major European competition (excluding qualifiers). The Egyptian has netted 49 times for Liverpool across the UEFA Champions League (44) and Europa League (5).
  • Luuk de Jong could become PSV’s all-time top scorer in the European Cup/UEFA Champions League, with the Dutchman currently level with Romário on 11 goals. He netted a brace last time out in this competition, helping them to a 3-2 away win against Crvena Zvezda.
  • Mohamed Salah has scored 24 away major European goals for Liverpool in 38 appearances. Only four players have netted 25+ away goals for one club: Cristiano Ronaldo for Real Madrid (48 in 48 games), Lionel Messi for Barcelona (47 in 74 games), Karim Benzema for Real Madrid (32 in 69 games) and Robert Lewandowski for Bayern Munich (29 in 38 games).
  • Malik Tillman has three goals and two assists in three home UEFA Champions League appearances for PSV this season, the most ever goals and assists combined by an Eindhoven player at the Philips Stadion in one campaign. He is looking to be the third player to score in three home games in a row, after Wim Jonk (3 in 1997) and Luuk de Jong (5 between 2018 and 2024).

Odds correct at 1300 GMT (28/01/25)

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