Manchester City take on PSG in the first leg of their Champions League semi-final on Wednesday, and Jake Pearson has two best bets.
Football betting tips: PSG v Manchester City
1pt Both Teams To Score ‘NO’ at 8/5 (BetVictor)
1pt Under 2.5 Goals at 13/10 (BetVictor)
PSG have had a far from comfortable route through to this year’s Champions League semi-finals, drawn in a group with RB Leipzig and Manchester United, before facing Barcelona and Bayern Munich in the two previous knockout stages.
Mauricio Pochettino’s men could hardly have been more impressive in their away leg against Barcelona, beating the Spanish side 4-1, before holding Ronald Koeman’s men to a 1-1 draw back in Paris.
It was a similar story against Bayern Munich in the quarter-finals, producing a sublime away performance to take a 3-2 lead into the reverse fixture, and holding firm to go through despite losing the game 1-0.
PSG have played twice domestically since that game against Bayern, beating St Etienne and Metz in Ligue 1, wins that have seen them keep pace with league leaders Lille.
Unfortunately for PSG, during their 3-1 win over Metz on Saturday, Kylian Mbappe suffered a knee injury after scoring two of his side’s three goals, leaving his fitness in doubt ahead of this crucial tie.
Will Pep 'overthink' it again in the Champions League?
It has been an odd couple of weeks for Manchester City, firstly seeing their hopes of a famous quadruple ended, exiting the FA Cup at the hands of Chelsea, before responding in kind by beating Tottenham to win their fourth successive Carabao Cup at Wembley on Sunday.
This is a huge test for Pep Guardiola’s men, and exactly the kind of match that in the past the Spaniard has tended to overthink.
During PSG’s wins over both Barcelona and Bayern, it was difficult to escape the feeling that the Parisians hold the blueprint for how to beat City, willing to soak up pressure before counterattacking with breathtaking pace; a grown-up version of Manchester United almost.
Undoubtedly Guardiola will be aware of this, and he will likely put measures in place to try and combat the obvious threat that PSG pose.
Oppose goals in Paris
This could lead to the game becoming far more tactical than many are expecting, and for that reason, it could be worth siding with a lack of goals.
Manchester City have received plenty of praise for their defensive improvement this season, with Guardiola’s side keeping clean sheets in 52% of their Premier League matches, but PSG have been similarly stingy in Ligue 1, keeping the opposition at bay on 50% of occasions.
Despite the reputations of these two sides, they are rarely drawn into “you-score-we-score” contests, with Both Teams To Score landing in just 42% of City’s league games this term, while only 36% of PSG’s matches have seen both sides find the net – the lowest in the French top flight.
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE ‘NO’ is priced up at a whopping 8/5 with BetVictor in this match, and given the way the game is likely to pan out, it is a price that makes plenty of appeal.
There will, of course, be an embarrassment of riches on show in terms of attacking talent in this fixture, but there is too much at stake for these two managers to try and go toe to toe, as they did when Pochettino’s Tottenham met Guardiola’s City in the quarter-final two seasons ago.
A more cautious approach must be adopted, and with just 45% of City’s Premier League matches this term seeing more than two goals, a price of 13/10 for UNDER 2.5 GOALS in the first leg of this tie looks a shrewd bet.
PSG v Manchester City best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Both Teams To Score ‘NO’ at 8/5 (BetVictor)
- 1pt Under 2.5 Goals at 13/10 (BetVictor)
Score prediction: PSG 0-0 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Odds correct at 1540 BST (26/04/21)
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