PSG hold a commanding lead over Barcelona in their Champions League tie. Tom Carnduff has three best bets advised at prices of 22/1, 40/1 and 80/1.
Football betting tips: PSG v Barcelona
0.5pts e.w. Sergino Dest to score first at 80/1 (Sky Bet) (e.w. terms 1/3 odds 1-99 places)
0.5pts e.w. Jordi Alba to score first at 40/1 (bet365) (e.w. terms 1/3 odds 1-98 places)
0.5pts Barcelona/PSG in HT/FT at 22/1 (Sky Bet)
It's four years ago this week that Barcelona completed their famous second leg comeback against PSG. The French side held a 4-0 lead going into that game, and while they are 4-1 up from the first leg this year, we shouldn't expect a repeat of one of the Champions League's greatest ever nights.
Kylian Mbappe ran riot in Spain with a hat-trick. All four of PSG's goals came after going behind to a Lionel Messi penalty and Barca's need to attack will surely suit the hosts here. We saw them get forward with explosive pace and this contest presents an opportunity to do that again.
Perhaps the memories of that famous night at the Camp Nou will still haunt some of those still in Paris but this Barcelona team just doesn't have the same feel to the one that overturned that huge deficit. There is a best price of 25/1 on Barca qualifying for the next round - a bet that will be backed through sentiment rather than present day by some.
Will Barcelona make PSG nervous?
The first goal in this contest is key. A comeback is very unlikely but Barcelona need to score first to have any chance of getting something and they will know the importance of an early strike. Expect to hear the 'they couldn't, could they' lines coming out on commentary if so.
If they don't score first, the already tiny percentage drops even shorter and it'll give PSG the confidence to go on and make the aggregate score a significant one. Luckily for Barca, they have a good habit of scoring the first goal in recent games.
The last seven games in all competitions have seen Barcelona score first, a run that includes the first leg in Spain. While PSG have struck first, and won to nil, in their last three, they did concede first to both Monaco and Barca in the two games before it.
What has been interesting in Barca's last two games is how they've played with a back three, allowing the full-backs to operate more as wide midfielders. With goals needed in their favour, Ronald Koeman could well stick with the same system for the trip to the French capital.
That provides some intriguing prices in the first goalscorer market, and the bigger of the two is SERGINO DEST who is 80/1 with a couple of bookmakers, but we're taking it with Sky Bet as an each-way bet because of the anytime terms that come with it (99 places).
Since the tactical switch, Dest has seen three shots across his last two LaLiga appearances. That is a significant jump when we compare it to the season average, with six shots coming in his previous 18 league games. He has scored this season with a group stage goal against Dynamo Kyiv.
Dest is comfortable playing in a more advanced role too. He played, and scored, while on the right wing for Ajax in the UEFA Youth League in 2018. The same can be said for their Eredivisie under-19s campaign. He's been priced as a full-back with defensive duties but he should feature in plenty of attacks as they look for a positive result.
On the other side is JORDI ALBA, a well-known figure in the Barcelona side. He has also lined up in something that resembles more of a left midfield role since the tactical switch and that led to a goal last time out. In fact, Alba has scored two in his last three.
Even at full-back he's possessed an attacking threat. Alba has seen 15 shots in his last 15 LaLiga contests and had two from left midfield against Osasuna. He could benefit from an aggressive start from the visitors and the 40/1 on him netting the first goal is generous if they stick with the system, particularly as it gives around 13/1 on the anytime odds.
Both players are worth a small stakes play each-way on the first goal in this game. The importance of that first goal could not be clearer and Barcelona know they have to get it. With the likes of Lionel Messi and Antoine Griezmann all shorter prices, I'm willing to gamble on DEST and ALBA being involved early on.
Early goal may not be enough
It wouldn't be a surprise to see Barcelona hold a half-time lead in this game given circumstances. They scored first in the first leg but Mbappe made it 1-1 around 15 minutes before the break. It was the second-half where the Parisians did the damage and it could be the same case here.
This contest is all on Barcelona. They are the team looking to close a huge deficit and, while they may just be hoping for a win on the night, a lead at half-time should lead to them attacking more in the second-half. For PSG, that will give them chances to break forward and strike.
It could be an issue late on for the visitors. The more they push for goals, the more Barcelona will leave themselves open at the back and they know how PSG can punish them late on - three goals in the first leg came from the 65th minute onwards.
It's 9/4 that Barcelona lead at the break, but I'm more interested in the 22/1 available with Sky Bet on BARCELONA/PSG IN THE HT/FT market. It's another selection worth a small stakes play but the scenario heading into the game makes it a real possibility.
We know Barcelona have been good for scoring first in recent games and that will put them in a good position for a half-time lead. They may have hope at one stage, but this should be PSG's night, even if the main questions afterwards will be on Lionel Messi's potential final appearance in the competition for Barca.
PSG v Barcelona best bets and score prediction
- 0.5pts e.w. Sergino Dest to score first at 80/1 (Sky Bet) (e.w. terms 1/3 odds 1-99 places)
- 0.5pts e.w. Jordi Alba to score first at 40/1 (bet365) (e.w. terms 1/3 odds 1-98 places)
- 0.5pts Barcelona/PSG in HT/FT at 22/1 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: PSG 2-1 Barcelona (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Odds correct at 1425 GMT (08/03/21)
Opta facts
- Paris SG have won two of their last three games against Barcelona in the UEFA Champions League (L1), as many victories as they managed against the Catalan side in their first eight meetings in the competition (W2 D3 L3).
- In the history of the European Cup/UEFA Champions League, no team has ever progressed from a knockout tie over two legs after losing the first leg at home by a margin of three goals.
- This will be the first UEFA Champions League meeting between Paris SG and Barcelona at the Parc des Princes since February 2017, when the home side recorded a 4-0 victory. This remains Paris SG’s biggest margin of victory in a home knockout game in the UEFA Champions League, while it’s also Barcelona’s joint-heaviest defeat in a knockout game away from home in the competition (also 0-4 v Liverpool in May 2019 and v Bayern in April 2013).
- Following defeats against Juventus and Paris SG in their last two games in the competition, Barcelona will face the prospect of losing three in a row in the European Cup/UEFA Champions League for the first time in the club’s history.
- If Kylian Mbappé scores for Paris SG in this game, he will become the youngest player to reach 25 goals in the UEFA Champions League, aged 22 years and 80 days. The current youngest player to reach 25 goals in the competition is Lionel Messi, who was 22 years and 286 days old when he reached the milestone in April 2010 against Arsenal.
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