While the phrase; ‘Leeds have been a breath of fresh air this season’ may have been greatly overused this year, it is hard to argue that that is the case.
The way in which Marcelo Bielsa’s side attack in every game, no matter the opponent, is something that recent Premier League seasons have been missing from sides outside the ‘big six’.
The likes of Newcastle, Burnley and Crystal Palace all continue to set up in a defensive manner week in and week out, but Leeds always play on the front foot.
While their match against Chelsea ended goalless on Saturday afternoon, there were 12 shots on target for both teams combined, the most seen in a Premier League 0-0 draw since 2016.
What is interesting though, is that that game was their best defensive performance against a team who finished in last season top six, based on Infogol's expected goals (xG) model.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
Leeds had been previously exploited against the best
It is fascinating to dig deeper into Leeds’s xG numbers this season, and when we do, there are some key takeaways that explain certain things.
Leeds’ season up to the goalless draw with Chelsea could be split into two sections; vs last season’s top six (seven games) and vs ‘the rest’ (20 games).
While their expected goals (xGA) total was the third worst in the league pre-Chelsea, a whopping 44% of that total (21.5 xGA) had come in their seven matches against last season’s top six.
Those teams are; Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, Chelsea, Leicester and Tottenham, and eight of their 28 league games this season have come against those teams.
That averages out to 3.07 xGA per game, with the Whites all-out attacking approach clearly not well suited to playing against the teams with elite individual players that are capable of exploiting spaces left by them.
However, the way in which they contained Chelsea on Saturday does suggest that a corner may have been turned.
FT: #PremierLeague #EPL
— Infogol (@InfogolApp) March 13, 2021
⚪️ #LUFC 0 (0.48 xG)
🔵 #CFC 0 (0.83 xG)
Chelsea's clean sheet run continues - their 10th in 12 games under Thomas Tuchel.#LEECHE shot map ➡️ https://t.co/J7kKj1x0PI pic.twitter.com/kmDEZRm9ae
They looked resolute throughout, and limited Chelsea to an xG total of just 0.99. While they didn’t threaten much themselves (0.49), it was a controlled display from the Whites, something we haven’t seen much of this season.
Just maybe, they are evolving.
Bielsa’s side among ‘best of the rest’
If that is the case, then the Premier League should be worried, as Leeds have been incredibly strong against ‘the rest’ this season.
In 20 matches against the teams not including last season’s top six, the Whites have averaged an impressive 1.70 xGF, creating plenty of chances regularly.
Interestingly, Leeds are allowing just 1.38 xGA per game in those games. If they could replicate that defensive level across all of their Premier Legaue fixtures, they would rank as a top eight defensive side.
Bielsa’s system is working.
Can Leeds qualify for Europe next season?
While the goalless draw and solid defensive display against Chelsea did stop the rot in a sense against the Premier League’s elite, it did come against a Blues side who have averaged just 1.51 xGF per game since Thomas Tuchel’s arrival.
On the whole, Leeds do and have struggled to defend against the better teams, and while they could be evolving and improving in order to fix that, to me they could do with strengthening their XI.
The system clearly works against 60-70% of the league, but for Leeds to get to the next level they need to improve the level of some individuals in the system.
Nine of the XI that started in the 0-0 draw against Chelsea played in the Sky Bet Championship with Leeds last season, with only Raphinha and Diego Llorente the new additions.
Obviously, you can’t and wouldn’t sign another nine players, but there are areas of the team that could do with bolstering, and if they did improve the starting XI, they could be a real force.
Ultimately, Leeds have performed like a top eight team against ‘the rest’ this season, and if they could improve the talent of the individuals starting every week, while maintaining the same process and system, they could be the next team banging down the door of the ‘big six’.
They aren’t far away from being a serious threat to the league’s elite.
