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Tottenham v Man City free betting tips and preview: Jose Mourinho to revert to type against Pep Guardiola
Richard Jolly explains a shift in tactics from Jose Mourinho as the Portuguese reverts to his pragmatic approach ahead of Tottenham v Man City on Saturday.
It is the entertainer against the dullard, at least if reputations are to be believed. The surprise is which has offered the most entertainment this season. Jose Mourinho’s Tottenham have 19 goals, almost twice as many as Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City. Spurs lead City for shots and shots on target. They lead the league for efforts inside the six-yard box, suggesting they are carving out more golden chances than anyone else. They meet on Saturday after a role reversal.
Mourinho might rail against that initial description. His Real Madrid outscored Guardiola’s Barcelona 121-114 when displacing them as La Liga winners in 2011-12. Yet if one is cemented in the imagination as a more attacking manager, the numbers support that. Guardiola averages 2.47 goals a game as a Premier League manager, Mourinho 1.74.
When the Portuguese last won the league, it was with the third-highest expected goals; when he last came second, it was the sixth most. So, and while City’s lack of goals – they have 17 fewer than after seven games last season – presents the question if it is an aberration, so does Tottenham’s early glut. Has Mourinho reinvented himself?
Perhaps not. A recurring theme in his career is that his teams can hint at potency at the start of seasons before becoming less prolific. In 2017-18, his Manchester United scored four goals in each of their first two games and 21 in their opening seven. They only scored 47 in the remaining 31. Chelsea’s 2014-15 champions had 15 after four games but only 58 in the remaining 34, or 1.70 per game. Rewind to 2005-06 and Chelsea averaged 2.55 goals in their first nine matches and 1.68 thereafter.
This season may conform to a familiar theme: Spurs scored 15 times in five matches before getting only four in their last three, even though those opponents – Burnley, Brighton and West Brom – are all in the bottom five now. Spurs had more shots on target in each of the previous four matches than any of the more recent three, even if their xG against Brighton and West Brom were both higher than in the 3-3 draw with West Ham.
Nevertheless, that looks a turning point, the moment Mourinho decided to go more pragmatic, just as he had at previous points in earlier seasons. Tottenham’s first five games produced 23 goals; their last three have brought just five. In a way, the game that symbolised their start was the 5-2 win at Southampton: Saints had seven shots on target and an xG of 2.28, the same as Tottenham’s. The combined xG of Burnley, Brighton and West Brom against Spurs has been just 2.27.
Spurs v Man City betting preview
- 17:30 GMT on Sky Sports Premier League
- Match odds: Home 16/5 | Draw 3/1 | Away 4/5
Tom Carnduff
It'll be interesting to see how Tottenham approach this game and whether Mourinho goes back to his previous self after witnessing a very attack-minded team so far. He's an expert at shutting down games and neutralising an opponent with a strong attack of their own. That is easier said than done against this City side.
They stayed with their attacking mentality in the 6-1 hammering of Manchester United and it's clearly a winning formula. Big game management comes into it but Tottenham have enough about them to get past this City side on current form.
In terms of the individual bets, Serge Aurier is a decent one when it comes to bookings with Mike Dean in charge. He's likely to come in for the unavailable Matt Doherty and had a huge four fouls in his last Premier League outing (3-3 v West Ham). He can be backed at 9/4 with Sky Bet to be shown a card.
But the best bet can be found in the outright market and backing Tottenham to continue their good run of results so far. It's a win that would see them reclaim top spot in the Premier League whatever happens in the earlier kick-offs.
Score prediction: Tottenham 2-1 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Best bet: Tottenham to win at 16/5
Click to read Tom Carnduff's preview in full
That start owes much to the calibre of the finishing. All of Spurs’ six scorers this season are outperforming their xG and Heung-Min Son is not merely the joint top scorer in the division; he is its greatest expected goals overperformer with eight from an xG of just 3.50. Unsurprisingly, therefore, Harry Kane has the greatest difference between his expected assists (3.80) and his actual total (eight).
Nearly all of that dates back to the first five games. In the last three, Kane’s xA is 0.59 and Son’s xG 0.94. In that subsequent period, each is averaging fewer shots per 90 minutes and fewer key passes. But the shift to a more defensive approach is shown by the reality Spurs have only had five efforts by defenders - four from Sergio Reguilon and one from Toby Alderweireld – in those three matches. They had 12 from defenders before then. Attacking has been left to fewer players.
Son’s numbers look unsustainable in one respect. The South Korean has eight goals from just 11 shots on target so far, and few end a season scoring from 72 percent of their efforts on target, just as Son, who has averaged between 37 and 48 percent of his efforts on target, is unlikely to carry on having 61 percent on target. In another, however, they are not.
Son is such a fine finisher he has ‘beaten’ his expected goals in each of the last four seasons, and often by sizeable margins: by 3.64 in 2018-19 and 6.23 in 2016-17. Across his Premier League, he has outperformed his xG with his right foot, his left foot and his head. And as he is actually averaging fewer shots per game this season, there is the scope for him to score more.
Likewise, Kane is a consistent overachiever. He is outperforming his xG for a seventh successive season. Most dramatically, he got 29 goals from an xG of 19.82 in 2016-17. While he is dropping deeper, and his key passes per 90 minutes is 2.26, almost double a Premier League career average of 1.15, he has still had 25 shots from inside the penalty area. Kane’s seasonal average of 4.77 shots per 90 minutes is above a career average of 4.07. It is 4.33 in the last three games. He is still shooting.
If Mourinho’s thinking is that Kane, Son and Gareth Bale will create and take enough chances that the rest of his team need not commit to attack, there is a logic to it. In their last three games, Spurs have only conceded two chances with an xG of over 0.13 (0.33 for West Brom’s Karlan Grant and 0.41 for Burnley’s James Tarkowski, when Kane cleared off his own line at Turf Moor).
The incongruous element is that West Ham’s equaliser, Manuel Lanzini’s injury-time thunderbolt, was so unlikely that it had an xG of 0.01. But perhaps Mourinho is playing the numbers, looking to limit opponents’ chances, while knowing he has two – or three, with Bale – finishers who take a disproportionate number of theirs. After all, his champion teams have tended to be efficient, overachievers in front of goal.
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