Fresh from a clean sweep of three winners at 6/1, 5/1 and 39/10 from Tuesday’s Championship clash between Watford and Brentford, Michael Beardmore returns to assess Preston v Bristol City.
Football betting tips: Preston v Bristol City
2pt Preston (-1) corner handicap at 11/10
1pt Alan Browne to be shown a card at 9/2
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Preston v Bristol City
- 20:00 GMT kick-off on Sky Sports Football
- Match odds: Home 5/4 | Draw 9/4 | Away 9/4
It’s fair to say it’s been a somewhat strange start to the season for Preston North End as they prepare for their penultimate home game of 2021 against Bristol City on Friday night.
Preston, in a bizarre beginning to their Championship campaign, lost all five of their opening league games at Deepdale but won four and drew one out of five on the road.
Things have regressed to the mean since the first weekend in November, North End losing four out of five away – an admittedly impressive win at Bournemouth the lone exception – but picking up seven points out of 12 at home including a fine 3-0 despatching of Middlesbrough.
Dean Holden’s Bristol City, meanwhile, boast one of the Championship’s better away records but lost at Rotherham on their most recent trip and seem to have inherited former boss Lee Johnson’s streaky nature, unbeaten runs followed by winless ones.
City are two points outside the play-off places but have lost four of their past six and are not the team that won four straight to begin the campaign and top the early-season standings.
While a draw or a Robins win, both generally priced at 9/4, offer the best value at first glance given Preston’s home woes, the Lilywhites’ recent Deepdale improvements give pause for thought.
Add in the hot-and-cold nature of both teams and the fact they both come into this on the back of successive defeats make it difficult to be confident of any specified outcome, unlike the clean sweep of three winners I was chuffed to land in Watford v Brentford in midweek.
If City were facing most other teams, I would tip an ‘under’ goals bet as they have been decimated by injuries in attack – Jamie Paterson, Jay Dasilva, Chris Brunt and Andi Weimann all out, Nahki Wells also a worry – and Famara Diedhiou is banned after a red card against Millwall in midweek.
But Preston rarely keep clean sheets (four in 19) and their games average three goals per match – their leaky back-line makes an unders bet too risky as no team in the division has conceded more.
One consequence of City’s injury woes is that their corner count has dropped considerably. In fact it has virtually halved. They won 46 corners in their first 10 games but just 23 in nine since.
That recent drop in Robins’ flag-kicks due to their attacking limitations, plus the emphasis on the hosts to attack, makes the 11/10 offered by Betfair and Paddy Power on the Preston (-1) corner handicap very appealing.
Preston (75) have taken more corners than City’s 69 this season anyway and I strongly fancy them to earn at least a couple more flag-kicks in this game than their visitors.
Another Betfair price that stands out is the 9/2 they proffer on Preston midfielder Alan Browne to be shown a card. That looks huge on a player who has received seven cautions in his past 21 games.
One to keep an eye out for on the teamsheets is Preston midfielder Brad Potts, who missed North End’s defeat at Barnsley in midweek with a minor knock and faces a late fitness test.
The midfielder has scored three times already this season and tops Preston’s average shots figures with 1.5 a game – he’s a huge 14/1 to net first with bet365, compared with 9s generally elsewhere.
Score prediction: Preston 2-1 Bristol City (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Best bets:
Opta facts
- Preston haven’t lost any of the last 14 league meetings with Bristol City (W8 D6), though each of the last three have ended level.
- Bristol City have managed to win only one of their last 13 visits to Deepdale in league competition (D6 L6), a 4-0 victory in February 2011.
- Preston won 3-0 last time out at home against Middlesbrough, they haven’t kept consecutive league shutouts at Deepdale since December 2017.
- Bristol City have lost four of their last six league games (W2), as many as they had in their previous 18 in the Championship.
Odds correct at 1730 GMT (17/12/20)
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