Premier League xG: Expected goals scorelines for Gameweek 8
We round up the Premier League action in a less traditional fashion, delivering the xG scoreline, an Infogol fairness rating and noteworthy data points.
What are Infogol fairness ratings?
- We attempt to rank each match result by comparing the actual result against the range of possible game outcomes that could have arisen based on the quantity and quality of chances created by each side in the game.
- This is scaled from 0 to 100, where 100 represents those occasions where the process most closely mirrors the real scoreline and lower scores indicate a match where the scoreline is not fully reflected in the balance of chances created.
Everton 1-0 West Ham
- Infogol xG: 0.35 - 1.04
- Fairness rating: 49.34
- Scorers: Maupay 53'
Neal Maupay’s first goal since February saw Everton’s summer signing end the club’s winless start to the season with a 1-0 victory over fellow strugglers West Ham.
The Frenchman, who has scored in all three of his Premier League starts against the Hammers, struck with a well-taken goal which was a rare highlight in a match between two teams who have endured difficult starts.
Indeed, there was a real dearth of good scoring chances at Goodison Park, with both teams combining to average 0.07 xG per shot.
David Moyes' side end the gameweek that leads into an international break in the relegation zone.
Everton 1-0 West Ham
— Sporting Life Football & Infogol (@InfogolApp) September 18, 2022
• xG: 0.35 - 1.04
Neal Maupay's excellent goal was enough for Everton to gain their first win of the season in a match lacking solid scoring chances.#EVEWHU pic.twitter.com/scJ55RhbeQ
Brentford 0-3 Arsenal
- Infogol xG: 0.54 - 1.11
- Fairness rating: 68.62
- Scorers: Saliba 12', Jesus 28', Vieira 49'
Arsenal climbed back to the top of the Premier League and avenged last year’s humbling at Brentford with a clinical 3-0 victory.
But they are a different animal this term and proved it with an organised, inventive display and three well-taken goals from William Saliba (0.09 xG), Gabriel Jesus (0.30 xG) and Fabio Vieira (0.02 xG).
It was a show of complete control from the Gunners, limiting Brentford to just 0.11 xG in the first half.
Such was Arsenal’s dominance that Mikel Arteta could even afford to give 15-year-old midfielder Ethan Nwaneri a late run-out as a substitute, making him the Premier League’s youngest player.
Wolves 0-3 Manchester City
- Infogol xG: 0.31 - 1.53
- Fairness rating: 83.19
- Scorers: Grealish 1', Haaland 16', Foden 69'
Manchester City returned to the top of the Premier League table with a comfortable 3-0 victory over Wolves in Saturday's early kick-off.
City found themselves 2-0 up after 16 minutes, and things were made easier when Wolves centre-back Nathan Collins was shown a straight red for a reckless challenge on Jack Grealish before half-time.
While he scored, Erling Haaland only accounted for 8.5% of City's 1.53 xG. The striker has proven on multiple occasions that he doesn't need plenty of chances to take one.
Based on chances created, the Infogol model calculates that a 1-0 Manchester City win would have been the fairest outcome (24.3%).
Newcastle 1-1 Bournemouth
- Infogol xG: 1.73 - 0.89
- Fairness rating: 82.19
- Scorers: Isak 66'; Billing 62'
Newcastle were frustrated at home again as they drew 1-1 with Bournemouth.
Kieran Trippier came close to finding the net when his free-kick struck the outside of the post in an otherwise uneventful first-half.
Bournemouth did take the lead but it lasted a matter of minutes as Alexander Isak grabbed his second goal as a Newcastle player from the penalty spot.
The Cherries also had the lower non-penalty xG total, and they once again failed to break 1.00 xG. That has been the case in all seven of their Premier League contests this season.
It was Newcastle's lowest home xG tally of the campaign, but a figure of 1.73 shows how unfortunate they've been not to have more than six home goals and that they would've been worthy winners here.
Eddie Howe's side have returned 10.20 xG in their four home games in front of their own supporters - with their actual six goals scored only a 5.8% chance, according to the Infogol model.
A big point of interest here is that it's rated as a 5.6% chance that they scored 14. A remarkable contrast in the early stages of the new season.
Tottenham 6-2 Leicester
- Infogol xG: 1.90 - 1.69
- Fairness rating: 63.09
- Scorers: Kane 8', Dier 21', Bentancur 47', Son 73' 84' 86'; Tielemans 6', Maddison 41'
It was yet another heavy defeat for Leicester, as they were hammered 6-2 by Tottenham in North London.
Son Heung-min put his poor scoring start firmly behind him with a remarkable substitute appearance. He netted a hat-trick after coming on in the 59th minute.
That followed efforts from Harry Kane, Eric Dier and Rodrigo Bentancur, but they did fall behind to Youri Tielemans' early penalty.
James Maddison made it 2-2 before half-time, but it was a strong second-half performance led by Son's brilliance from the bench.
Based on their xG and opportunities created, it was only a 1.0% chance that Spurs scored six goals in the game - that led to it being given a fairness rating of 63.09.
Nottingham Forest 2-3 Fulham
- Infogol xG: 1.57 - 1.44
- Fairness rating: 81.27
- Scorers: Awoniyi 11', O'Brien 77'; Adarabioyo 54', Palhinha 57', Reed 60'
Nottingham Forest's poor start to the season continued with a 3-2 home loss to Fulham.
That made it back-to-back home defeats to their fellow promoted sides, with Bournemouth also hitting three in their visit to the City Ground.
However, Forest posted the higher xG tally in both games, so they can consider themselves somewhat unlucky not to come away with points.
Despite Fulham netting three, it was an unusually quiet night for Aleksandar Mitrović, who contributed just 11.1% of the visitors' overall xG total.
Based on the expected goals totals, it's just a 3.0% probability that the game finished in a 3-2 Fulham win.
Aston Villa 1-0 Southampton
- Infogol xG: 1.56 - 0.44
- Fairness rating: 96.82
- Scorers: Ramsey 41'
A much needed win for Aston Villa on Friday night, with Jacob Ramsey's first-half effort enough to secure three points against Southampton.
It was a poor performance for the Saints, who posted their lowest xG total (0.44) of the season so far. That led to the game being scored very highly on the Infogol Fairness Rating.
Ramsey's close range effort was the most significant of the game, totalling 0.67 xG. That being 42.9% of their overall tally.
While it was a good result for the home side, a concern is that it was only the second time this season that they've gone above 1.00 xG.