Premier League xG: Expected goals scorelines for Gameweek 4

• Gameweek 3: Liverpool lacking edge
• Gameweek 2: Ruthless City, exposed United
• Gameweek 1: The state of Man United

What are Infogol fairness ratings?

• We attempt to rank each match result by comparing the actual result against the range of possible game outcomes that could have arisen based on the quantity and quality of chances created by each side in the game.
• This is scaled from 0 to 100, where 100 represents those occasions where the process most closely mirrors the real scoreline and lower scores indicate a match where the scoreline is not fully reflected in the balance of chances created.

Nottingham Forest 0-2 Tottenham

• Infogol xG: 0.85-2.22
• Fairness rating: 84.78
• Scorers: Kane 5', 81'

Harry Kane scored twice and had a penalty saved as Tottenham won 2-0 at Nottingham Forest.

The England forward had six shots totalling 1.4 xG, 63% of Spurs' xG on the day as they took their tally to 10 points after four games.

He was on target after five minutes on the counter, when he was found on the edge of the box by Dejan Kulusevski before dispatching with a prodded finish past Dean Henderson.

They were awarded a penalty on 56 minutes after Steve Cook's handball in an aerial duel, one in which he escaped a red card after a VAR decision, but Kane was denied by England team-mate Henderson. That ended a run of 22 successful conversions from 12 yards in a Spurs shirt.

He struck late on to draw level with Andrew Cole on 187 Premier League goals – third in the all-time list with only Alan Shearer (260) and Wayne Rooney (208) ahead of him.

Kane's second goal was scored from six yards out - his third from that distance all closer this season, already matching the tally from the entirety of 2021/22 after just four games of the current campaign.

Only Liverpool (12) have had more shots inside the six-yard box than Tottenham's nine so far in this season's Premier League.

Wolves 1-1 Newcastle

• Infogol xG: 1.08-2.14
• Fairness rating: 78.25
• Scorers: Neves 38', Saint-Maximin 90'

Allan Saint-Maximin's 90th-minute volley secured Newcastle a 1-1 draw at Wolves on Sunday, as Eddie Howe's side maintained their unbeaten start to the season.

It was their third draw in four games as they got their just rewards after racking up 2.14 xG in the match, versus Wolves' 1.08 as they took a first-half lead through a stunning long-range strike from Ruben Neves.

It was a game of excellent goals, Saint-Maximin connecting with the dropping ball sweetly to rescue a point, but he seemingly pulled up with a hamstring problem in the process of scoring and celebrating.

Academy star Elliot Anderson nearly won it for the Magpies seven minutes into added time, with the Infogol model rating his chance at 0.47 xG.

A 1-1 scoreline was given a 9.2% chance according to Infogol, while a 2-1 away win was at 9.9%.

For Neves, it continued a remarkable record of scoring from distance for the Old Gold: 23 goals from 18.20 non-pen xG via a staggering 371 shots - an average of just 0.05 xG per attempt.

Aston Villa 0-1 West Ham

• Infogol xG: 0.39-0.43
• Fairness rating: 71.20%
• Scorer: Fornals 74'

West Ham secured their first league win of the campaign in a game of low quality chances.

It was the first time this season a Premier League match has ended with an xG total of less than 1.0 and the first time both teams have failed to surpass 0.50 xG, despite a total of 16 shots. Unsurprisingly 0-0 (44%) was the most likely scoreline according to Infogol with 0-1 an 18.9% probability.

A deflected 25-yard shot from Pablo Fornals, which looped over Emi Martinez, proved decisive.

Liverpool 9-0 Bournemouth

• Infogol xG: 4.12 - 0.28
• Fairness rating: 97.54
• Scorers: Diaz 3' 85', Elliott 6', Alexander-Arnold 28', Firmino 31' 62', van Dijk 45', Mepham OG 46', Carvalho 80'

Liverpool equalled the biggest win in Premier League history after a 9-0 thrashing of Bournemouth at Anfield.

Luis Diaz and Roberto Firmino both netted twice, with Trent Alexander-Arnold, Virgil van Dijk, Fabio Carvalho and Harvey Elliott all getting in on the action - that's alongside a Chris Mepham own goal.

Firmino was the standout performer of the first 45 minutes, scoring a goal (0.70 xG) as well as providing three assists.

He continued his fine form into the second half, marking his return from injury with a remarkable attacking display days after a quiet performance at Old Trafford.

The Reds' five first-half goals came from a total of 2.03 xG - a higher figure than they returned across the full game in defeat to Manchester United.

There was no slowing down in the second, adding another four after the break to wrap up a remarkable victory in front of their own supporters.

While it was a huge win, Infogol rates it as a 1.5% chance that Liverpool would score nine, based on the chances they created.

Manchester City 4-2 Crystal Palace

• Infogol xG: 2.26 - 0.36
• Fairness rating: 90.10
• Scorers: Silva 53', Haaland 62' 70' 81'; Stones OG 4', Andersen 21'

Erling Haaland's second-half hat-trick changed the game for Manchester City as they came from 2-0 down to beat Crystal Palace 4-2 at the Etihad.

Despite conceding early, Pep Guardiola's side could only return 0.64 xG in a first half that saw them fall two goals behind at the break.

Bernardo Silva's effort was their first on target in the 53rd minute - a strike that halved the deficit - before Haaland fired in the equaliser as the game moved past the hour mark.

Haaland then added two more to complete a hat-trick in a fine turnaround for the Premier League champions, who won by the right margin based on xG.

Chelsea 2-1 Leicester

• Infogol xG: 1.67 - 1.83
• Fairness rating: 76.00
• Scorers: Sterling 47', 63'; Barnes 66'

Chelsea bounced back from a 3-0 defeat to Leeds last week with a 2-1 home win over Leicester - doing so with ten men for a large part of the game after Conor Gallagher's 28th-minute red card.

Raheem Sterling netted both goals - his first two as a Chelsea player - while Harvey Barnes' effort proved to be nothing more than a consolation after Leicester's efforts towards the end of the game went unrewarded.

It was a strong attacking showing from Leicester, and the fairness rating of 76.00 demonstrates that they could have easily secured a point on the road.

Based on the xG totals, Infogol rated it as a 7.7% chance that the game would finish 2-1, a 1-1 draw being viewed as the 'fairest' result - a 9.2% probability.

One positive for the Foxes is that it was their highest xG tally of the season, although that is an indicator of just how bad they've been across the opening weeks and they did have a man advantage for more than an hour.

Another defeat likely won't ease the pressure on Brendan Rodgers. His side remain 19th with one point from their first four games.

Southampton 0-1 Manchester United

• Infogol xG: 1.61 - 1.24
• Fairness rating: 61.65
• Scorers: Fernandes 55'

Bruno Fernandes' second-half volley, connecting with a Diogo Dalot cross into the box to finish in classy fashion, was enough to earn Manchester United victory away at Southampton.

The Saints responded well to going behind, although Armel Bella-Kotchap's 31st-minute effort was their only big chance of the game (>35%). Despite scoring, United created just 0.15 xG after the break.

A point of interest here is the 76% of Manchester United's first-half xG tally came from one sequence of shots. While they had four - three of which were big chances - the total combined xG came to 0.83.

When multiple attempts are made just seconds apart, the maximum number of goals that can be scored is always one. That is regardless of how many efforts there were.

For a more detailed explanation, outlining how this is calculated, visit the Infogol blog here.

Arsenal 2-1 Fulham

• Infogol xG: 2.19 - 0.95
• Fairness rating:
• Scorers: Odegaard 64', Gabriel 85'; Mitrovic 56'

Arsenal came from behind to maintain their 100% start to the season with a 2-1 victory over Fulham.

Aleksandar Mitrovic's effort just before the hour mark gave the visitors the lead, but Martin Odegaard's deflected effort and Gabriel finishing from yards out after a corner ensured Mikel Arteta's men secured all three points.

Gabriel Martinelli took seven of Arsenal's 22 shots - although he only accounted for 22.4% of their total xG - with his five key passes also the highest of any player on the pitch.

According to the Infogol model, a 2-0 home win would have been the 'fairest' result with it rated at a 10.4% chance - although that was only slightly higher than the actual scoreline (9.9%).

Brighton 1-0 Leeds

• Infogol xG: 1.67 - 1.07
• Fairness rating: 82.79
• Scorers: Groß 66'

Brighton's fine start to the season continued after Pascal Groß's second-half strike secured a 1-0 victory over Leeds.

The Seagulls enjoyed the majority of the chances in the first-half but couldn't find the back of the net. The seven shots they registered equalled 0.73 - compared to Leeds' two for 0.09.

The Whites looked set up to frustrate, committing a huge tally of 11 fouls which resulted in three yellows being shown.

It was largely Brighton creating, but Luis Sinisterra missed a golden opportunity to give Leeds the lead with a chance just past the hour mark (0.61 xG).

Brighton punished them, as Groß finally found the breakthrough not long after - a winner that moved Graham Potter's side second ahead of Arsenal's involvement in the late kick-off.

Brentford 1-1 Everton

• Infogol xG: 2.59 - 1.80
• Fairness rating: 86.06
• Scorers: Janelt 84'; Gordon 24'

Vitaly Janelt's second-half equaliser ensured Brentford returned points in three of their four games so far with a 1-1 draw against Everton.

It was a first-half that could have seen a few goals, despite the fact that Anthony Gordon's was the only one. Brentford went into the break with 1.24 xG and Everton 1.16. Yoane Wissa and Ivan Toney had big chances that failed to find the back of the net.

Janelt struck back in the final ten minutes, although Toney had another decent chance to score after the break.

Based on xG, Infogol rated a 1-1 draw as a 5.8% chance. A 2-1 Brentford win judged the 'fairest' at 7.5%, although a 3-1 home victory was also rated higher at 6.5%. This was an opportunity missed for the home side.

More from Sporting Life

• Fixtures, results and live scores
• Expert xG analysis and features
• Transfer news and done deals
• Football and other sports tips
• Download our free iOS and Android app
• Podcasts and video content