Premier League xG: Expected goals scorelines for Gameweek 3

• Gameweek 2: Ruthless City, exposed United
• Gameweek 1: The state of Man United

What are Infogol fairness ratings?

• We attempt to rank each match result by comparing the actual result against the range of possible game outcomes that could have arisen based on the quantity and quality of chances created by each side in the game.
• This is scaled from 0 to 100, where 100 represents those occasions where the process most closely mirrors the real scoreline and lower scores indicate a match where the scoreline is not fully reflected in the balance of chances created.

Manchester United 2-1 Liverpool

• Infogol xG: 1.76-1.65
• Fairness rating: 77.34
• Scorers: Sancho 16', Rashford 53', Salah 81'

Erik ten Hag announced himself at Old Trafford as his side threw off two dismal showings against Brighton and Brentford by delivering an emphatic performance against bitter rivals Liverpool, securing the Dutchman's first points as Manchester United manager.

Although the match ended with a tight expected goals scoreline (xG: MNU 1.76-1.65 LIV) 64% of Liverpool's xG was created in the final 37 minutes of the game - after United had gone 2-0 up and the visitors' increasingly threw caution to the wind.

Heading into the contest United had conceded six goals in their two fixtures while Liverpool had created more xG than any other Premier League team across the opening two gameweeks but Ten Hag's side successfully stunted their opponents.

Across the 90 minutes they allowed Jurgen Klopp's men to create just one 'big chance' (>35%) with Luis Diaz's 55th minute attempt (0.55) their only opportunity of greater than 15% probability.

Newcastle 3-3 Man City

• Infogol xG: 2.27-3.75
• Fairness rating: 77.52
• Scorers: Gundogan 5', Almiron 28', Wilson 39', Tripper 54', Haaland 60', Silva 64'

A breathtaking match at St James' saw Newcastle fight back from 1-0 down to lead 3-1, only for Manchester City to roar back themselves to leave the North East with a point.

Both sides will feel disappointed not to have secured victory but from an expected goals standpoint it is City who can feel most aggrieved with the 77.52 Infogol fairness rating reflecting the fact Pep Guardiola's side ended the match having created 1.48 xG more than their opponents.

Although game state does play its part, with City forced to chase the game once 2-1 and 3-1 down, Newcastle created just 0.22 xG in the second half of the match compared with City's 2.21.

The Infogol model calculates that the probability of a 3-3 draw occurring with this xG scoreline at just 4.2%.

Guardiola will rue his side's missed chances, in particular two which fell to Haaland in the second period, the first a one-on-one opportunity thwarted by Nick Pope (0.37) and the second a close-range effort he was unable to get on target amid a degree of chaos at the back post (0.54).

For their part Newcastle will rightly receive plaudits for what was a phenomenal performance, a continuation of the Eddie Howe-led turnaround at the club.

Far from a one-off showing, the Magpies displays at St James' have been consistently excellent in 2022, with just one defeat coming at the hands of Liverpool and a positive xGD of 0.45 per game across their past 10 matches on home soil.

Leeds 3-0 Chelsea

• Infogol xG: 2.17-0.73
• Fairness rating: 81.87
• Scorers: Aaronson 33', Rodrigo 37', Harrison 69'

Leeds delivered without doubt their best display since the arrival of Jesse Marsch as head coach five months ago by thrashing Chelsea at Elland Road.

Blues goalkeeper Eduoard Mendy's howler, which saw Brenden Aaronson tackle him before tapping in, gave Leeds a deserved lead but they were rampant from the off with Chelsea unable to match the level of intensity Marsch's team brought to the game.

Rodrigo headed in from a free-kick to continue his fine form, moving on to four goals for the season already, and a second-half goal from Jack Harrison - arguably in the form of his life - made sure of the result.

Not only was this Leeds' most balanced performance of the Marsch era, restricting their opponents to less than 1.0 xG while creating more than 2.0 xG for the first time, it was also a standout defensive showing.

Not since the American's opening game as boss (0.33 v Leicester) have the Whites restricted the opposition to as low an xG total as they did Chelsea on Sunday afternoon.

For Thomas Tuchel's side, who saw Kalidou Koulibaly sent off for a second yellow card late in the game, it was a shocking display on all major metrics.

Not since January at Brighton have they created fewer chances according to xG, and not since April against Brentford have they given up more.

West Ham 0-2 Brighton

• Infogol xG: 0.95-1.79
• Fairness rating: 75.63
• Scorers: Mac Allister (pen) 22', Trossard 66'

Brighton maintained their unbeaten start to the season by winning at West Ham, who have now lost all three of their games without scoring a goal.

Albion's strong run of form stretches back much further, with Graham Potter's side now on a run of just one defeat in 12 matches - collecting 25 points in the process.

Those results have been built on defensive solidity, as in their 11 unbeaten games (their sole defeat was 3-0 to Manchester City) Brighton have been breached on just six occasions.

For West Ham, their concerns should go far beyond just an opening sequence of three straight defeats.

The Hammers have now won just once in their last 11 matches in all competitions, with that solitary victory coming against perennial Premier League whipping boys Norwich.

And the data does not look good for David Moyes' side, with West Ham's rolling xG process significantly dipping in the latter part of 21/22 and showing no sign of turning around.

Bournemouth 0-3 Arsenal

• Infogol xG: 0.28-1.78
• Fairness rating: 87.36
• Scorers: Odegaard 5', 11', Saliba 54'

Arsenal coasted to victory at Bournemouth, moving to the top of the Premier League by keeping up their perfect start to the new campaign.

Mikel Arteta's side stifled the Cherries after taking an early lead, conceding only 0.28 xG in the game. Only Newcastle have logged a lower xG total in the league this season, registering just 0.18 in their 0-0 draw with Brighton last weekend.

At this stage of last season, Arteta was facing calls to be axed as Arsenal boss as they sat bottom without a point or a goal.

Now the Spaniard has a front man in Gabriel Jesus in fine form and a team built to play the way he desires.

Crystal Palace 3-1 Aston Villa

• Infogol xG: 2.93-0.98
• Fairness rating: 99.81
• Scorers: Watkins 5', Zaha 7', 58', Mateta 71'

Wilfried Zaha underlined his importance to Crystal Palace with two goals and key involvement in the third as his side picked up a first win of the season by battling back to beat Aston Villa 3-1.

Patrick Vieira’s hosts also had a Jeffrey Schlupp goal disallowed for offside during a dominant performance.

Zaha, who claimed the opener in Monday’s 1-1 draw at Liverpool, has now scored in each of the Eagles’ last seven top-flight victories (9 goals, 4.5 xG).

Everton 1-1 Nottingham Forest

• Infogol xG: 1.56-0.97
• Fairness rating: 86.71
• Scorers: Johnson 81', Gray 88'

Demarai Gray grabbed a late equaliser as Everton snatched their first point of the season against newly-promoted Nottingham Forest.

Brennan Johnson had given Forest the lead against the run of play but Steve Cooper’s side still caused enough problems to feel a draw was deserved.

Everton had their moments in attack but failed to create many clear-cut openings and had enough shaky situations defensively to worry Frank Lampard.

Fulham 3-2 Brentford

• Infogol xG: 2.86-1.61
• Fairness rating: 94.97
• Scorers: Reid 1', Palhinha 20', Norgaard 44', Toney 71', Mitovic 90'

Aleksandar Mitrovic’s last-minute header snatched victory - Fulham's first of the season - over local rivals Brentford just as they looked to have squandered a 2-0 lead.

Brentford striker Toney saw two fine finishes ruled out for offside, only to make it what he thought would be third time lucky when he tapped home to level the scores at 2-2 in 71st minute, with the Bees then expecting to steal at least a point.

However, Mitrovic grabbed the last word by equally his goal tally (3) for his last Premier League campaign just three matches in to the current campaign and from less than half the xG (3.5 to 7.3).

Leicester 1-2 Southampton

• Infogol xG: 0.31-1.45
• Fairness rating: 91.16
• Scorers: Maddison 54', Adams 68', 84'

Substitute Che Adams’ stunning scissor kick sealed a comeback win for Southampton at Leicester, who were without defender Wesley Fofana - watching from the stands amid Chelsea’s attempts to prise him away from the King Power.

But it was more Leicester's lack of attacking threat from open play that was evident on the pitch, with James Maddison’s smart free-kick needed to give them the lead, ultimately cancelled out by Adams’ brace.

While their defensive struggles seem to have continued into this season, their attacking process will worry Rodgers. Despite scoring five goals this season, Leicester have created chances equating to just 1.60 expected goals (xG), an average of 0.53 xG per game.

The trends are worrying for the Foxes...

Tottenham 1-0 Wolves

• Infogol xG: 1.57-0.81
• Fairness rating: 87.24
• Scorers: Kane 64'

Harry Kane created history as his goal gave Tottenham victory over Wolves. The England captain scored his 250th Spurs goals, and 185th in the Premier League - taking him above Sergio Aguero to fourth in the all-time list of scorers.

But Spurs performance as a whole was not all positive. The hosts couldn't get near the Wolves goal for much of the first half, only recording their first shot in the 45th minute, ending the opening period with an xG total of just 0.10.

The away side, on the other hand, peppered the opposition goal in the opening 45, albeit with speculative efforts (12 shots equating to 0.56 xG).

Antonio Conte's side were much improved after the break, ultimately taking a hard-earned and arguably deserved three points.

Tottenham's final xG total of 1.57, however, was only the fifth time in 16 home league games under Conte that they have created less than 2 xG.

More from Sporting Life

• Fixtures, results and live scores
• Expert xG analysis and features
• Transfer news and done deals
• Football and other sports tips
• Download our free iOS and Android app
• Podcasts and video content