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Premier League: Who has the most difficult schedule?
The Premier League restart is upon us and it's fair to say that, while the World Cup was entertaining and the final thrilling, many have been waiting for the top flight's return on Boxing Day.
You could be forgiven for forgetting what the Premier League table even looks after such a long break - Arsenal are top and Wolves are bottom by the way - but things could look very different after the traditionally hectic Christmas period.
But, who has the most difficult festive schedule and who has the fixture computer been kindest to as we roll into 2023?
How do we work out who has the hardest fixtures?
Everyone will have their own opinions about how good or bad a team is and as a result how difficult a certain run of fixtures looks.
By using Infogol's expected goals (xG)-powered team ratings we remove opinion to forecast a team's most likely finishing position come the end of this Premier League season, allocating them a rating of between one and 20.
We then calculate which team has the most difficult run of festive fixtures according to those ratings.
What we cannot factor in here is the effect the World Cup has had on different squads, what has changed in the past six weeks in terms of managerial comings and goings and the additional impact of a round of Carabao Cup matches in the week between the World Cup final and Boxing Day.
Who has the easiest festive schedule?
It's great news for Manchester United fans, as the data shows they have the easiest run of fixtures over the festive period.
Their average forecast position of opponent across gameweek 17, 18 and 19 (the festive period) is a whopping 19.0 - with a higher number indicating an easier schedule.
They face Nottingham Forest, who are forecast to finish bottom of the table, Wolves, who are predicted to finish 18th, and Bournemouth, who have a forecast position of 19th.
Erik ten Hag's side therefore have a great opportunity to get points on the board over a congested eight days for the Red Devils.
Fulham, Chelsea and Southampton all tie for the second kindest schedule, holding an average forecast position of opponent of 13.3, with Liverpool and Manchester City tied in fifth with 12.3.
Who has the most difficult festive schedule?
Look away now Leeds fans. Of all Premier League teams, the Whites have the toughest festive period from an opponent perspective.
The average forecast position of opponent sits down at 5.7 across the three gameweeks.
Jesse Marsch's side restart their Premier League campaign against champions Manchester City (forecast first), before taking on high-flying Newcastle (forecast fifth) and a West Ham team Infogol thinks will climb to 11th.
Brentford hold the second toughest festive schedule with an average forecast position of opponent of 6.0, taking on Tottenham (forecast fourth), West Ham (11th) and Liverpool (third). The good news for the Bees is that the games against 'big-six' sides come at home.
Leicester (average forecast position of opponent = 6.7) and Bournemouth (7.3) have tough restarts over the festive period, as do league leaders Arsenal (8.0) who face West Ham, Brighton and Newcastle.
Who has the easiest restart?
So, that's the festive period analysed, what about over a six/seven game span, who has the easiest restart to their season?
That lucky team is Nottingham Forest (just), who have an average forecast position of opponent of 13.0 from gameweek 17 to 22.
Nathan Jones' Southampton rank second with 12.8, which will be music to the ears of the newly appointed coach, ahead of Aston Villa and Brighton.
Who has the most difficult restart?
Based on the data, Tottenham are the team who have the toughest restart schedule.
Spurs play seven times from Boxing Day to the February 5, squeezing an extra game in compared to 16 other teams, and have an average forecast position of opponent of 6.9.
That is mainly because Antonio Conte's side play the team forecast to finish top of the table, Manchester City, twice in that span, as well as facing north London rivals Arsenal (forecast second).
Speaking of the Gunners, they, along with Wolves, rank at 8.5 on the average forecast position of opponent. Not ideal for Mikel Arteta's title chasing side, or for Wolves' new boss Julen Lopetegui.