Miguel Almiron celebrates Newcastle's victory over Chelsea

Premier League top four odds: Can Newcastle still make it or will they be caught?


Newcastle United are in the midst of one of the strangest Premier League seasons on record

Perhaps that’s to be expected of a club recently bought by a nation state with unlimited resources and a grotesque human rights record, but even allowing for Saudi Arabia’s influence things have been strange.

Newcastle haven’t spent enough money to justify their position in the Champions League places, and it’s even harder to explain how they have managed to lose just one of the 22 Premier League matches so far.

Eddie Howe is doing an exceptional job, and ironically there has been so much focus on the sportswashing and financial influx at Newcastle the head coach’s role in the revival has been underrated.

Eddie Howe Newcastle

Clearly Howe has benefitted from all that money (and perhaps more importantly from the unification that comes from every staff member knowing the future is bright) but he has also implemented a brilliant tactical structure that has put Newcastle a year or two ahead of schedule.

But things have started to slow down. No other side has drawn more than their 11, and five of those have come in the last six games to give Newcastle the most underwhelming of unbeaten runs.


Premier League top four finish (odds via Sky Bet)

  • Manchester Utd - 1/7
  • Newcastle - 5/6
  • Tottenham - 2/1
  • Liverpool - 4/1
  • Brighton - 5/1
  • Chelsea - 11/1

Odds correct at 1029 BST (15/02/23)


It has also handed Liverpool, this weekend’s opponents, the opportunity to significantly narrow the gap and become their main rivals for fourth.

Victory for Jurgen Klopp’s resurgent side this Saturday will take them to within six points of Newcastle with a game in hand. You would expect Liverpool to secure fourth from that position.

Howe’s tactical ideas driven by hard work

There isn’t too much difference between the ideas Howe used at Bournemouth and what we are currently seeing at Newcastle.

The foundation is sharp counter-attacking football built on moving the ball quickly through the thirds, using the speed of the Newcastle wingers and the direct dribbling of their number eights to take advantage of opposition disruptions just after the ball is won; the Magpies sit fifth in the table for ‘direct attacks’ with 40, per Opta.

Off the ball, Newcastle are fierce pressers, particularly in the middle third, and indeed it is this work rate that defines them more than anything else. Only Leeds and Chelsea have a lower PPDA than Newcastle’s 10.8 this season, and only Leeds and Manchester City have recorded more high turnovers than their 203.

Newcastle United avg positions
  • PPDA - Number of opposition passes allowed outside of the pressing team's own defensive third, divided by the number of defensive actions by the pressing team outside of their own defensive third. A lower figure indicates a higher level of pressing, while a higher figure indicates a lower level of pressing.

It is the basis of Howe’s 4-3-3: endless pressing, tracking, and recovery runs, which have created such a sturdy defence – and the possibility of sharp breaks through the in-form Miguel Almiron, Joelinton and Callum Wilson.

To understand how these two aspects fit together, it’s important to note that Newcastle are one of the narrowest teams in the division. Their wingers are constantly drifting infield to cut off passing lines and make out-to-in runs, while the three-man midfield is extremely compact.

Newcastle United passing network

This allows Newcastle to gain control of matches by dominating that crucial midfield zone, while the wingers tend to disrupt opponents by popping up in the half-spaces, in turn drawing the match infield to create space on the overlap for Kieran Trippier and Dan Burn.

It is all about efficiency and consistency in this regard, which is why fastidious work cannot be overstated – and neither can the fact Howe has been able to play the same 10 players in 18 or more (81%) of their 22 Premier League matches.

Finally, set-pieces have given Newcastle the edge in tight games defined primarily by that fierce defensive shape; their 11.47 set-piece xG is by a distance the best in the division.

Recent changes and reasons to be optimistic

So what exactly is behind the recent downturn in form? Newcastle’s football is so fine-tuned it always did depend on the fine margins (and, perhaps, the over-performance of Almiron, who is regressing to the mean) and indeed they have recorded the division’s third highest difference between their goals scored and expected goals scored, of 7.5. That tells us they have scored seven (and a half) more goals than ‘expected’.

Then again, they only have 0.93 more points than ‘expected’, and throughout their recent run of five draws from six Howe’s side have been under-scoring against their xG by an average of over 1.0.

In other words, better finishing and they would have converted a few of those draws into wins, preventing the mild concern that has arisen over the last couple of weeks.

Alexander Isak
Alexander Isak will be crucial in the run-in

And if scoring goals is the only problem (the defensive record speaks for itself) then Newcastle supporters can relax knowing that Aleksandar Isak, injured for most of the season, is gradually being reintegrated into the first team, while Allan Saint-Maximin is yet to really take off this season and faces new competition from Anthony Gordon.

Saint-Maximin struggling

That’s a lot of firepower still to come good during Newcastle’s exceptional 2022/23 and reason enough to be optimistic for the months ahead, starting with Saturday’s visit of Liverpool.

Saint-Maximin’s poor form is an interesting case study and a perfect example of how the Newcastle manager has made the team so difficult to beat.

Saint Maximin stats

“Our wide men work extremely hard and that’s no doubt contributed to our very good defensive record,” Howe said last week.

“I think you have to accept players for their strengths. There’s no better player at doing what Allan does well in the league, in my opinion. Allan is unique, but we just need to make sure we see that.”

That was a semi-veiled reference to the fact Saint-Maximin just hasn’t been working hard enough, off the ball, to get into the first XI despite his unique skillset.

It’s that tireless, non-negotiable work ethic that underpins Newcastle’s success this season - and suggests they will get through this brief lull with their place in the top four intact.


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