Our Andy Schooler has trawled the specials markets to find the best bets for the new Premier League season.
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Sadio Mane to score more than 10.5 Premier League goals at 8/11
My colleague Ben Coley has already made the case for Sadio Mane challenging for the Golden Boot in 2017/18 and if he does he’s sure to smash this line which simply looks too low.
His first season in the Premier League brought 10 goals and he followed that with 11 in his second at Southampton.
Last summer’s move to Liverpool always looked like to bring him more goals and he certainly caught the eye en route to a tally of 13, one which would surely have been considerably higher but for a January trip to the Africa Cup of Nations and a season-ending injury which saw him miss the final eight games.
Yes, Liverpool will likely share the goals around this season but that was also the case last term when Mane was one of the team’s stars and, barring serious injury, I can’t see him missing this target offered by Unibet, 888sport and 32Red. Other firms have a line of 12.5 which I’d still consider perfectly acceptable.
Bournemouth to finish with more than 42.5 points at evens
After last season’s top-half finish, the Cherries have strengthened in key areas and could well outperform expectations once again.
Their summer recruitment has certainly caught the eye. Asmir Begovic should sort a long-standing problem in goal, while Nathan Ake’s permanent signing is a good one – his return to Chelsea in January saw Bournemouth start shipping goals and that was no coincidence. Up front, Jermain Defoe will find the net. He grabbed 30 in the last two seasons at a struggling Sunderland side and if he and Josh King can form a partnership they will be handful for many a defence.
A run of just two defeats in their last 12 games of 2016/17 (to Chelsea and Spurs) helped them accumulate 46 points. Led by the astute Eddie Howe, I see every reason to believe the Cherries could at least repeat last season’s points tally and going over William Hill’s 42.5 line looks a solid play.
Everton to finish seventh at 9/2
Everton have been well backed in several markets following the arrival of numerous new signings, from Wayne Rooney to Michael Keane. However, such is the competition at the top of the Premier League right now, they may find it hard to improve on last year’s seventh-placed finish.
Another reason for that is the loss of Romelu Lukaku. Anyone who has scored 68 league goals in four seasons for a Premier League club is sure to be missed and Everton will need to change the way they play to accommodate their new men, none of whom looks a direct replacement for the free-scoring Belgian.
Everton finished eight points behind sixth-placed Manchester United last season (and the Reds threw in the towel in the final weeks of the campaign) but were also a massive 15 ahead of eight-placed Southampton. In 2017, they spent only a few days outside seventh spot. It defined where they were at as a club – well behind the Big Six and way better than the also-rans.
Of those who finished above the Blues, you can make an argument for Spurs slipping back this season but there was a 25-point gap between the two sides in May. Even a big Everton improvement and a major Spurs slide could fail to see that bridged.
All things considered, Paddy Power’s 9/2 about Everton finishing seventh again looks well worth a bet. It's 6/4 elsewhere.
Leroy Sane to be named PFA young player of the year at 14/1
I‘ve got a couple of long shots to finish with and Sane is first up.
Dele Alli, winner in each of the last two seasons, is the favourite in this market but he’s playing for a team expected to slip back this season and also has the problem of voting fatigue to overcome if he is to become the first player to win this award three years running.
Sane, on the other hand, is part of a team who are expected to improve; indeed they start as the title favourites. With his ability to run at players, he impressed last year and made the shortlist for the young player gong.
The potential problem here is game-time. It���s hard to really know if Sane is now part of Pep Guardiola’s first-choice XI given the huge amounts that have been spent on recruitment by the oil-rich men at the Etihad. However, even if he isn’t, rotation these days means he’s sure to get his chance at some point.
It should be remembered that Sane started all bar two games for City following his return from injury in January (scoring eight goals in the process) so he’s not going to be a player who has suddenly been deemed surplus to requirements.
If he performs to the level he was at during the second half of last season, Sane will be difficult to leave out and in any case the risk factor of the German not getting enough time on the pitch is built into the price – 14/1 is offered by Unibet, 888sport and 32Red. A skilful player who scores goals fits the bill to win this award and for me any price at 10/1 or above looks decent.
Mauricio Pellegrino to be named August manager of the month at 14/1
August manager of the month looks an interesting market with every chance of a big-priced winner. Pep Guardiola is an obvious favourite but even three wins for City over Brighton (a), Everton (h) and Bournemouth (a) - not the easiest of starts - is far from guaranteed to win this award, as last season showed.
Hull outperforming expectations with two wins and a defeat in August saw Mike Phelan win the prize (fat lot of good it did him). Swansea’s fast start in 2014/15 also saw Garry Monk claim the gong. On that occasion, Swansea won all three August fixtures, playing two games at home and one away.
That’s what I’m looking for here and a couple of teams (and thus managers) stand out. I’ve already talked up how I rate Bournemouth and their start of West Brom (a), Watford (h) and Man City (h) gives Eddie Howe a chance at 25/1. However, City have been very good starters in recent years and that last game is certainly a tough one for the Cherries.
At 14/1, I prefer Mauricio Pellegrino and Southampton. They start with Swansea (h), West Ham (h) and Huddersfield (a) – all very winnable for a side which has beaten Sevilla and St Etienne in pre-season. Pellegrino has the ‘new boss’ factor in his favour too – any league newcomer who wins their first three games will be lauded and I believe that has the ability to influence the decision. In short, the ex-Liverpool defender looks worth a small punt at the price which is offered by Betway.
Coming next: Opening Premier League game preview - Arsenal v Leicester, Thursday afternoon
Posted at 0730 BST on 10/08/17.
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